MLB

Odds and Picks

  • Cincinnati is 42-47 against the run line so far this season. 
  • St. Louis is 49-43 against the run line so far this year.
  • The Cardinals are 24-23 against the run line at their home field. 
  • The Reds are 23-20 against the run line when playing on the road. 

The Cincinnati Reds (34-55) prepare to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (48-44) in a Friday night matchup. The first pitch is scheduled for 8:15 PM EST in St. Louis at Busch Stadium.

The Reds have played well over the past week and could upset the Cardinals. However, St. Louis is clearly the better of the two teams. This matchup has the potential to be exciting without question.

Let’s take a look at this Friday night contest.

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Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals Odds 

TeamsMoneylineTotalRun Line
Reds+141O/9+1.5
Cardinals-153U/9-1.5

The Cardinals enter play as a fairly heavy moneyline favorite. In other words, they are the straight up pick to win at home.

This makes sense given their overall better season and home-field advantage.

However, covering the run line won’t be as simple. St. Louis must win by two or more runs in order to take care of business in that regard. The Cardinals are favored to cover the run line at home. 

But the Reds certainly can make it interesting.

The over/under is set at nine, which is somewhat high scoring. That could be a difficult number to reach. But the starting pitching matchup of Hunter Green (3-10, 5.70) and Andre Pallante (2-4, 3.18) doesn’t exactly jump off the page.

So taking the over could be the best course of action. Both of these offenses have the talent to produce a lot of runs at any given moment. Typically, I wouldn’t say that about the Reds… but they have simply gotten the job done as of late.

But which team should you place your money on? Let’s take a closer look at this contest.

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Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Reds enter this ball game on a bit of a hot stretch. They have won four of their past five games, including defeating the Yankees 2-1 in a three-game set. Their series victory over New York shocked the MLB world

Cincinnati’s offense has taken care of business during their recent string of solid play. They have scored at least four runs in each of their past five games. The Reds scored 17 runs in their three-game series with the Yankees. 

So can Cincinnati keep rolling against the Cardinals?

The Reds lineup ranks 18th in batting average, 21st in OBP, 24th in slugging percentage, 17th in runs scored, and 21st in home runs. For a team that is considered one of the worst in baseball, those offensive rankings aren’t terrible. 

So it’s conceivable this lineup sneaks up on St. Louis and posts a crooked number. 

However, the Reds rank dead last in team ERA. So this pitching staff is going to need to perform better if Cincinnati wants to keep playing well. 

Young flame thrower Hunter Greene is scheduled to pitch for Cincinnati. The right-hander features plenty of strikeout potential but has mostly labored since getting called up to the big leagues. 

St. Louis Cardinals Preview

The Cardinals narrowly trail the Brewers in the NL Central. St. Louis has dropped two games in a row but has won three of their past five overall. 

The Cardinals are a well-balanced team. Their pitching tends to carry the load, but the offense has a number of stars.

St. Louis is 10th in team ERA, 18th in WHIP, and 11th in home runs allowed. Meanwhile, the lineup is eighth in batting average, 12 in OBP, 12th in slugging percentage, eighth in runs scored, and 15th in home runs. 

Neither aspect of the team is elite by any means. But they pitch and hit at a fairly high level which gets the job done. 

The Cardinals will send Andre Pallante to the mound. Pallante is inexperienced but has performed well in limited action. He will go up against an overall lackluster Reds lineup.

But as aforementioned, Cincinnati has been hitting the ball well as of late. 

Injury Report

Star catcher Yadier Molina is expected to be out until early August as he rehabs from his knee injury.

Jack Flaherty’s timetable is unclear, but the right-hander expects to return sometime in late August or early September. This has been a lost season for Flaherty, but he could play a key role in a Cardinals’ playoff run.

Steven Matz could return this weekend. Harrison Bader is expecting a return next week.

For the Reds, Mike Moustakas will be out until next week with an illness.

Albert Almora and Aramis Garcia are both expected to return on July 22nd.

Ross Detweiler is targeting a late July return in his recovery from a back injury. 

Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Predictions

So, who wins this game?

The Cardinals are the obvious favorites. They have enjoyed a solid 2022 campaign and are going up against an underwhelming Reds ball club.

But Cincinnati has played well over the past week, and the Cardinals don’t have an experienced pitcher on the mound. 

Meanwhile, Hunter Green has the potential to excel at any given. Sure, his struggles are concerning. But he can shut down any lineup when at the top of his game. 

With all of that being said, I like the Reds as a sneaky underdog pick in this one. Cincinnati’s offensive performance as of late suggests they should be able to score some runs. And as long as Greene doesn’t completely blow up, their upset potential is enticing. 

The Pick: Roll with the Cincinnati Reds -1.5 in this Friday night ball game.

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