MLB

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Odds, Picks and Predictions

The three bottom feeders of the NL Central all sit within 2.5 games of one another, and two of them — the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs — meet at 8:05 p.m. ET on Wednesday at Wrigley Field.

What’s remarkable for the Reds (26-47) is they started 3-22 and are 23-25 since, though they still sit behind the Cubs (28-46) for the worst record in the National League.

Promising prospect Hunter Greene gets the ball for the Reds. His high-velocity fastball wows fans, and he’s shown potential in some starts, though he sports a 3-8 record and 5.66 ERA.

Cincinnati is 3-11 in his starts, and the over/under is 5-7. In his outing on May 26 against the Cubs, Greene allowed five earned runs on seven hits, striking out six and walking two in a 20-5 victory.

Southpaw Justin Steele will oppose him for the Cubs. Steele is 2-5 with a 4.59 ERA. The Cubs are 5-9 when he pitches, and the over/under is 8-5.

He was on the other side of that 20-5 loss, allowing seven earned runs on as many hits in two innings. His last time out, he allowed five earned runs (six total) but had three straight starts of two earned runs or less prior.

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Match Info

Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois

Date: Wednesday, June 29, 2022

Time: 8:05 p.m. ET

TV: Bally Sports Ohio, Marquee Sports Network

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Odds

Odds are listed in moneyline, run line and over/under order:

  • BetOnline – Reds +124, Cubs -134; Reds +1.5 (-173), Cubs -1.5 (+153); 7.5
  • Bovada – Reds +117, Cubs -140; Reds +1.5 (-185), Cubs -1.5 (+160); 7.5
  • MyBookie – Reds +120, Cubs -140; Reds +1.5 (-185), Cubs -1.5 (+155); N/A
  • BetUS – Reds +124, Cubs -134; Reds +1.5 (-175), Cubs -1.5 (+155); 7.5
  • BetNow – Odds not listed

The Reds can be a profitable moneyline pick with the best odds at BetOnline and BetUS at +124. The Cubs are the best at those two books as well at -134.

The Reds run line at BetOnline is -173 to lose by one or win outright, while the Cubs run line is best at Bovada, where they’re +160 to win by two or more runs. The over/unders are the same number across the board, though odds on either side may vary.

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Betting Trends

  • The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings at Wrigley Field
  • The Reds are 5-2 across the last seven meetings at Wrigley Field, including a 5-3 win on Tuesday
  • Overall the under is 7-3 in the last ten games
  • The over is 4-0-1 in Steele’s last five home starts when it is set between 7 and 8.5 runs
  • Public bets show 63% of moneyline bets are on the Cubs
  • The public also has 71% of bets on the over
  • The Reds are 38-32-3 on over/unders and 14-24 away from home
  • The Cubs are 35-35-4 on over/unders and 13-26 at home

Reds’ offense worth trusting

For how bad the Reds started, it is remarkable how solid their offense has been. Of course, a lot of players were in and out of the lineup early in the season with injuries, contributing to the slow start. But they’ve rebounded in a big way.

The team is averaging 4.52 runs per game, the 13th best mark in baseball. They have a .241 batting average, ranking 16th, though their OPS is .691, ranking 23rd. As impressive as those numbers are, their pitching staff is equally impressive, though not in a good way.

Reds pitching is allowing 5.58 runs per game, the worst rate in baseball. Opponents have a .253 batting average against them, ranking 24th, and a .776 OPS, second-worst in the league. They also allow 1.43 home runs per game, the worst rate in baseball.

That’s not to say they don’t have bright spots. Luis Castillo has regained form, posting a 3.32 ERA with 60 strikeouts across 57 innings. Graham Ashcraft is 4-1 with a 3.27 ERA and has impressed as a contact pitcher. Largely the rest of the rotation has had its struggles.

Back to the offense, Brandon Drury has come on strong with 14 doubles and 15 home runs. His 46 runs scored and 39 RBIs are team highs. Kyle Farmer is hitting .280 with 16 doubles and 38 RBIs.

Tommy Pham has ten home runs, and Tyler Stephenson — who is out till late July — is hitting .305. Star Joey Votto has struggled, hitting .208 and battling injuries in the early going.

“Let’s score some runs”

The famed phrase after the seventh inning stretch is the key for the Cubs in any matchup, particularly against a pitching staff which struggles and limits runs.

Chicago’s offense ranks 19th at 4.27 runs per game, though it trends better than that. The Cubs have a .245 batting average, ranking 13th, and .711 OPS, ranking 14th. Though they’re without Frank Schwindel and Nick Madrigal indefinitely, they have plenty of weapons.

Patrick Wisdom has 15 doubles and 14 home runs, coupled with 38 runs scored and 37 RBIs. Ian Happ is hitting .273 with 16 doubles, 36 RBIs, and 33 runs scored.

Trade candidate Willson Contreras is hitting .272 with 14 doubles, 12 home runs, and 40 runs scored. Nico Hoerner, an exciting prospect from the Craig Kimbrel trade, is hitting .304.

But the pitching staff has been as bad, allowing 5.35 runs per game for the fifth-worst mark in baseball. Opponents have a .253 batting average against them, ranking 25th, and .763 OPS against, ranking 26th. The 1.41 home runs allowed is the second-worst rate behind Cincinnati.

Steele has at least provided health as only he and Kyle Hendricks have ten or more starts this season, each with 14. That doesn’t mean they’ve been great, though. But if the Cubs can get a lead, there is some promise in the bullpen.

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Picks and Predictions

  • It is not quite a pick ’em, but there is a belief this game could go either way based on the moneyline. 
  • All signs point to siding with the public and taking the over. Unless the wind is blowing in tonight, there should be several home runs on each side, which with baserunners on, would quickly allow runs to stack up.
  • There is no telling how this game will go, but the Reds have played much better since May and have the better offense on paper, so Reds +124 is the top pick.

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