Check out our betting preview and prediction for the NFL match between Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New England Patriots.

Buccaneers at Patriots Betting Preview

If you haven’t heard about Tom Brady’s return to New England this Sunday night, you need to upgrade the Wifi in your cave. Yes, Brady is back in Foxborough, where he spent 20 seasons and won six Super Bowls, and he’s bringing Rob Gronkowski with him as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the New England Patriots.

Sportsbooks are saying this could be the most wagered regular-season game in NFL history, but sites like BetOnline and Bovada are standing firm with their line of the Buccaneers -7 points.

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A Road “Home” Game for Brady

It will be interesting to see how the crowd responds to Brady’s return, but one would have to think it will be positive. You don’t just turn on somebody who is directly responsible for six Lombardi Trophies in your hallway, which is why this is one of the free NFL picks where the standard three points for playing at home really isn’t factored in. Gillette Stadium is indeed the House that Brady Built.

The public is absolutely hammering Tampa Bay in these NFL betting odds, and not just because Brady is returning to Foxborough, but because the Buccaneers have a pretty good team.

Tampa Bay just suffered their first loss since week 12 of the 2020 season in dropping a 34-24 game to the Rams last week. To that effect, having to go from Los Angeles back to Tampa Bay and then up to New England is a lot of travel in a week for a veteran team like the Bucs.

Does Tampa Bay have some defensive issues to shore up for these NFL odds of TB -7 to be accurate? Matthew Stafford threw for 343 yards and 4 TD last week for the Rams as the Buccaneers pass defense has now dropped to the worst in the league in giving up 338.3 ypg through the air.

The good news is New England has nowhere near the offense the Rams do as they start rookie QB, Mac Jones in his 4th NFL game.

Belichick Wants This One

Bill Belichick is arguably the greatest coach in NFL history but never gets his proper due because all of his success was shared with Brady – and rightfully so.

Belichick had to sit by while his Patriots team went 7-9 in 2020 at the same time while Brady was winning his 7th Super Bowl. A win by New England on Sunday Night wouldn’t tarnish Brady’s legacy by any means, but it would put a tally in Belichick’s column.

New England has the defense to at least cover the spread as one of this week’s most heavily wagered free NFL picks. The Patriots rank in the top 5 in the NFL in total yards allowed (282.3), passing yards allowed (159.7), and points against (17).

They’ve also played two of their three games against offensively inept teams in Miami and the Jets. Last week the Saints ran for 142 yards and beat New England 28-13 despite completing just 13 passes for 128 yards.

Totals betting for this highly publicized matchup has the over/under at what seems pretty high at 49.5. There’s no coach that knows how to game plan against Brady than Belichick (even though he’s never faced him), and New England’s offense doesn’t exactly put up points as they work through growing pains with Jones at QB.

The Patriots’ best scoring game of the season was a 25-6 win over the Jets in Week 2, and New England had four FGs and 260 total yards.

Buccaneers at Patriots Pick

If you want to get a nostalgic bet on Brady and the Bucs, just know that sportsbooks rarely lose games where the public is hammering one side. That doesn’t necessarily mean New England wins, but they do cover.

Betting Pick: Patriots +7

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