Josh Emmett vs Ilia Topuria UFC Betting Analysis and Prediction

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Jacksonville, Florida, is hosting another UFC event that will also be broadcasted live on ABC this Saturday afternoon. In the headlining bout, featherweights Josh Emmett and Ilia Topuria will be meeting in the octagon for a massive fight that will shape the title picture in the near future. 

Read along for the best Emmett vs Topuria picks to make after breaking down this fight in all aspects. We will look at betting trends and UFC odds and even break down the technical side of both men’s fighting styles.

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  • Josh Emmett is 4-1 in his last five appearances in the UFC octagon. 
  • Ilia Topuria is 5-0 in his last five UFC appearances. 
  • Emmett has been the betting underdog in eight out of his last ten bouts. 
  • Topuria has been the favorite to win his last four fights.
  • Emmett has finished eight out of his 18 career wins, including three finishes in the UFC.
  • Topuria has finished 12 out of his 13 career fights.  

How to Bet on Emmett vs Topuria

If you are looking to bet on these fights this weekend, take a look at UFC BetUS odds. They have Topuria as the big betting favorite at -320 going into this weekend. The former interim title challenger is at +240 odds right now.

The over 2.5 rounds option is priced at +175 right now, meaning that the oddsmakers don’t really believe that this fight will get into the championship rounds. With the firepower that both of these men have, that makes sense.

Let’s take a look at some statistics because they are both very similar physically, so it won’t mean too much discussing their measurables. Emmett averages 4.17 sig. strikes landed per minute while absorbing 4.43. He also only lands strikes at a 37% clip. 

Topuria is averaging 3.32 sig. strikes per minute and only absorbs 2.75. He is landing at a much higher percentage at 49%. Statistically, Topuria also has the advantage in grappling with a 92% takedown defense, and 2.45 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. You have to remember the sample size is much smaller for Topuria, though.

Technically speaking, Topuria looks like the better fighter in almost every aspect. Emmett has an experience advantage that might be all he needs. The key for Emmett to be successful is to shift the momentum in his own favor early on and get to a great start. That will settle him into the fight while also making Topuria second guess by throwing some of his techniques.

You have to make sure you take your time going through all the aspects of this fight before making your Emmett vs Topuria picks this weekend.

Emmett vs Topuria Betting Picks

After breaking this fight down as much as possible, there are two key Emmett vs Topuria picks in mind. The first is Topuria to win via TKO/KO at +145, and the other is actually Topuria winning by decision at a whopping +850. 

Topuria winning via TKO/KO is the much smarter UFC pick to make, knowing how dangerous he is. The reason behind that pick is in many of the things you already read, but to get a better look, you should watch his last fight against Rodriguez. Rodriguez’s style seemed to really put Emmett on his heels, and it didn’t look very comfortable for him in there.

For this decision at +850 bet, you will need to trust the durability of Emmett. Yes, Emmett is 38 years old, and his chin probably doesn’t have many tough days at the office left. But you need to expect him to come back improved since the disappointing performance in Australia earlier this year.

It’s very easy to imagine a savvy veteran like Emmett be able to control the pace of this fight enough to survive the early onslaught of the young Spaniard in the first couple of rounds. It’s tough to justify, but those +850 odds seem too good to be true with a sport that literally goes to a decision around 50% of the time–even higher at this level. 

All in all, Topuria is the more violent, sharper fighter in this matchup and has more avenues to victory for him. But the inexperienced and high pace that he fights with can easily bite him in the backside and cause this fight to come down to a close decision after 25 minutes of Emmett grinding away. We saw Emmett make the Kattar fight ugly and boring–which led to a decision in his favor.

No matter what, please bet responsibly, as UFC predictions are literally the toughest to make in all of the sports. MMA is the most unpredictable thing, and, at this high a level, anything can happen.

Top Sportsbooks Odds 

BetOnline: Topuria -310

Bovada: Topuria -360

MyBookie: Topuria -357

BetUS: Topuria -350

BetNow: Topuria -350

Bonus! Other Fights Worth Placing a Bet On

UFC Jacksonville co-main event: Amanda Ribas (-200) vs. Maycee Barber (+170) 

This is a great fight to set the table for the main event this weekend. Both ladies have a great fan base and a great unique skill set. Ribas will be trying to take the fight to the canvas, and Barber will look to keep it on her feet and pick Ribas apart from the outside. The slight edge goes to Ribas with experience and wrestling skills.

UFC Jacksonville feature prelim: Neil Magny (-160) vs. Phil Rowe (+140)

Neil Magny is still one of the most underappreciated fighters on the UFC roster. He has had a great career fighting everyone the UFC throws at him and always has a great fight. He also has great wins over guys like Daniel Rodriguez, Geoff Neal, Robbie Lawler, Li Jingliang, and Carlos Condit. These are great odds to get a great fighter like Magny.

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