The UFC is back yet again this weekend with an interesting card taking place from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. The main event of this card is this middleweight contender bout between Brendan Allen and division-newcomer Paul Craig.
Allen and Craig are two very talented grapplers who have continued to get more comfortable with striking in the octagon, making this a very interesting UFC matchup between styles.
Let’s take a closer look at the Allen vs. Craig betting analysis and then get to the official UFC prediction of this fight and what bets you should make on it. We will break down the numbers surrounding this matchup, as well as study the film that both guys have put out there in their UFC careers so far.
This is the place to be if you want to learn and get the best betting picks for UFC events every weekend.
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UFC: Allen vs. Craig Betting Trends
- Brendan Allen is 5-0 in his last 5 appearances in the UFC octagon.
- Paul Craig is 3-2 in his last 5 UFC appearances.
- Allen has been the betting favorite in 7 out of his last 10 UFC fights.
- Craig has been the betting underdog in his last 6 UFC bouts including this weekend, winning three out of the last five.
- Allen has 18 finishes (5 TKO/KO and 13 SUB) in his professional MMA career. (27 fights)
- Craig has 17 finishes (4 TKO/KO and 17 SUB) in his professional MMA career. (24 fights)
How to Bet on Allen vs. Craig
If you want to learn how to bet on the UFC, there are a few important things to remember. First, you should always look at the betting lines at some point before making up your mind on what you are going to bet on UFC. The betting lines can make or break a pick because they decide what kind of payout you receive if your bet hits.
According to UFC odds, Allen is the big betting favorite in this one with a money line of -450 over Craig at +350. This means that oddsmakers expect Allen to get his hand raised in victory on Saturday night. There are also prop bets you can place, like whether or not the fight will go the distance or if either one of them gets a submission win.
Interestingly, this bout is heavily favored by the UFC predictions to end inside the distance at -800, meaning you have to bet about $800 just to get $100 as a winning payout.
The next step in this betting process is to understand the styles of both fighters and how they might clash in the octagon on Saturday night. This will eventually lead you to a UFC prediction of how this fight will go.
Some key aspects to this matchup in terms of style are the kind of submission artists these two are, and how far along their striking skills have come over their UFC tenures.
Allen is a top-game grappler who likes to take his opponents down and dominate them from on top of them, leading to either finishing the fight with ground-and-pound strikes or allowing them to give up their backs for Allen to lock in a choke.
Craig is a very dangerous grappler as well, but he is most comfortable from his back. He will accept takedowns from opponents because all he needs to do is get butterfly hooks in and then he’s in complete control with the opponent in his guard.
The key to betting on this fight is understanding what areas of a fight each one of these guys is most dangerous in, and whether or not one of them has a better chance of implementing their potential gameplan on Saturday night when those octagon doors lock.
Allen vs. Craig Betting Picks
Since breaking down the stats and styles of both of these dangerous middleweight contenders, the prediction is making itself clear. The official prediction for this main event bout this weekend is that Craig is going to surprise everyone yet again and get a big win.
This is an out-of-the-ordinary prediction for this matchup and you probably won’t see too many ‘experts’ lean towards the 35-year-old Scottish submission artist in this one against a young upcoming contender. But there is a clear path to victory for Craig.
He’s going to be the bigger man in the octagon, even though his frame has changed a lot since cutting down to middleweight. He is still 6’4” and will probably weigh about 200lbs in the octagon on Saturday night.
Also, this is going to be a battle of ranges. Craig needs to be able to control the distance of this fight and accumulate damage to Allen using his kicks. Craig’s kicks are better than Allen and he will be able to land heavily to the body and legs from a distance where Allen can’t hurt him back.
With all the technicalities already being talked about, a key aspect of this fight is the youthfulness and confidence of Allen. He is just naive enough to think he can win this fight by taking Craig to the ground and beating him up from the position.
Craig is going to be able to lock up a big-time submission from the bottom yet again and leave Allen confused and upset on the ground after he taps.
Top Sportsbooks Odds
BetOnline: Craig +335
Bovada: Craig +325
MyBookie: Craig +350
BetUS: Craig +305
BetNow: Craig +330
Bonus Fight Pick
This weekend’s UFC card is full of very interesting matchups between the upcoming contenders of the organization.
A bonus fight pick to make is for the women’s strawweight bout between Luana Pinheiro and Amanda Ribas. Take this bout to end inside the distance at +150. These two are going to march each other down and land big shots, looking for a finish to jumpstart their title runs.
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