UFC events at Madison Square Garden have a different vibe around them than anywhere else. This weekend we have the opportunity to witness some history and to be able to win some money off of these exciting fights.
The main event bout at UFC 295 this Saturday night will be a championship fight between former champions Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira for the vacant light heavyweight belt. After a year away from competing due to a brutal shoulder injury, Prochazka is ready to take back the crown that he vacated just about a year ago.
Continue reading for a look at the Prochazka vs. Pereira odds that are available to bet on this weekend, and find out what the best pick to make on this fight is. This is the best spot to learn how to bet on the UFC every weekend.
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UFC: Prochazka vs. Pereira Betting Trends
- Jiri Prochazka is 5-0 in his last 5 appearances in the UFC octagon.
- Alex Pereira is 4-1 in his last 5 UFC appearances.
- Prochazka has been the underdog only once before in the UFC–his debut fight against Volkan Oezdemir in 2020. (+157)
- Pereira has been the betting favorite in only 4 out of his 7 UFC bouts since entering the company.
- Prochazka has 28 finishes (25 TKO/KO and 3 SUB) in his professional MMA career. (33 fights)
- Pereira has 6 finishes (6 TKO/KO and 0 SUB) in his professional MMA career. (10 fights)
How to Bet on Prochazka vs. Pereira
The key to betting on the UFC and making UFC predictions is being able to submerge yourself into the sport. You should never bet on anything you aren’t knowledgeable about, so why do people always bet blindly on the big UFC fights?
To get a good grasp on a matchup like this main event, you should take a look at all the betting lines, preview the analytics, and watch as much film as possible on the two championship-level fighters.
Starting on the betting lines, Pereira is actually coming into this week as the -125 betting favorite over the former light heavyweight champion with over 30 professional MMA fights. Prochazka has very interesting -105 odds going into the weekend per UFC at Bovada.
This bout between two KO specialists has -600 UFC odds to end inside the distance–meaning the oddsmakers are giving this a very low chance of making it the full 25 minutes and letting the judges decide who gets their hand raised.
Next, the analytics could show you a pattern of how each guy performs throughout their career. The only issue with this is that Pereira only has 10 MMA fights, and both guys have only been in the UFC for a couple of years.
They both are massive athletes, Prochazka at 6’3” and Pereira at 6’4”. These guys will both have to cut some serious weight to make that light heavyweight limit. Will Pereira have trouble with the first guy that’s comparable to his size in MMA? Or will the light-heavyweight version of Pereira prove to be too powerful for even the best in the division?
Expert Breakdown: Understanding the Prochazka vs. Pereira Odds
Also, you have to be able to watch the film on these two and determine how this fight most likely will play out. If you don’t have an eye for the sport, listen to experts’ breakdown film. There are plenty of great videos online of smart people looking at films on top fighters.
Even with all the information in the world and spending however much time you want on deciding who will win this fight, you should look at this as a 50/50 coin flip. MMA is way too unpredictable for any betting pick to be a lock, especially in a fight between two of the most dangerous men in the world in a cage.
Prochazka vs. Pereira Betting Picks
After breaking down the Prochazka vs. Pereira odds and studying the tape on both championship fighters, the official prediction for the UFC 295 main event is that Prochazka will get his hand raised.
The reasoning behind this UFC pick is the experience that Prochazka has over Pereira. He has over 30 fights in the sport of MMA and has been locked in the cage with some of the best fighters in the world over the years. He has faced wrestlers, kickboxers, and all different styles of MMA.
It’s not like it’s a far-fetched prediction to say Pereira knocks Prochazka out–he’s literally got the touch of death in his hands. He can end the fight at any given moment, which will force Prochazka to be even more focused in every second of this fight.
When the fight doesn’t go as planned, who will be on top? MMA fights seemingly never go smoothly and easily for anyone. It is so rare to see a championship performance like Conor McGregor in MSG at UFC 205 for the lightweight belt against Alvarez, usually, there’s some adversity for each fighter in the cage.
The proof we have of Prochazka getting through the wars and ending up on top is what makes this pick stand out. Taking Prochazka’s money line at plus UFC odds is all you need to do for this fight. It’s way too close to pick any method of victory or anything like that. Just trust that the champion will rise to the occasion against a very dangerous striker like Pereira.
Top Sportsbooks Odds
BetOnline: Prochazka +105
Bovada: Prochazka +100
MyBookie: Prochazka +105
BetUS: Prochazka -105
BetNow.eu: Prochazka +100
Bonus Fight Pick
For this stacked UFC 295 PPV card, we will let ya in on one more UFC betting pick. Take Tom Aspinall to get his hand raised as interim heavyweight champion in the co-main event.
He’s facing literally the most dangerous man in the sport, but Aspinall just might be the best talent we have seen in the heavyweight division in the sport’s history. The speed, power, and grappling skills will be at his disposal to use this weekend.
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