The beautiful country of Brazil has hosted many UFC events over the years, and they are back as hosts this weekend for the first time since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. 

In the headlining bout of this Sao Paulo card, heavyweights Jailton Almeida and Derrick Lewis are set to square off and fight for a spot at the very top of the heavyweight rankings. This is a great matchup between the new rising contender and the battle-tested UFC veteran who has been in the octagon with some of the best to ever do it in the UFC.

Let’s look closer at this main event bout and find the official Almeida vs. Lewis prediction ahead of placing any bets this weekend. If you want to learn how to bet on the UFC, this is the perfect place to start.

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  • Jailton Almeida is 5-0 in his last 5 appearances in the UFC octagon. 
  • Derrick Lewis is 2-3 in his last 5 UFC appearances. 
  • Almeida has been the betting favorite in every single UFC bout he’s been in besides his fight on Dana White’s Contender Series against Nasrudin Nasrudinov. 
  • Lewis has been the betting underdog in four fights in a row since the summer of 2022. He’s been the underdog in 7 of his last 10 bouts. 
  • Almeida has 19 finishes (7 TKO/KO and 12 SUB) in his professional MMA career. (21 fights)
  • Lewis has 23 finishes (22 TKO/KO and 1 SUB) in his professional MMA career. (39 fights)

How to Bet on Almeida vs. Lewis

If you want to learn how to bet on the UFC, this is the perfect fight to set an example. The UFC heavyweight division is unique because of how everyone fights and the danger involved with just one punch being landed.

The UFC odds have the hometown headliner as the massive – 500 betting favorite over the +400 Lewis. You can bet on the UFC at Bovada and get plenty of prop betting lines as well. This fight is massively favored to end inside the 25-minute limit at -3000–which is pretty much unheard of in the fight game.

The next aspect of this matchup to go over is the styles that each fighter brings to the table. In this one, Almeida is an elite grappler with a smaller frame for a heavyweight; but he makes up for it by being faster and stronger than most guys at heavyweight.

Lewis is an experienced championship-level MMA fighter who has been in the octagon with literally the most dangerous guys on the planet. He has the ability to end a fight at any given moment by just landing one clean punch.

Cracking the Code: Can Lewis Capitalize on Almeida’s Habits

After watching the tape on both guys, it’s clear that both of them are two of the most dangerous men on the planet. 

The game plan for Almeida is probably the same as all of his other bouts–take the fight to the ground and control on top. With top control and ground-and-pound, it usually allows his opponent to make a mistake and expose his back while trying to get back to their feet. 

From watching Lewis’ past performances, the only thing that it shows is how good Lewis is at landing that fight-changing punch, and how strong he is. He has stood up after black belts have taken him down before. He also knocked a wrestler out with an uppercut deep into a fight he was losing on the scorecards. 

One red flag on Almeida’s skill set is his predictability. It’s hard to tell why he does it, but Almeida has thrown a front kick to the opponent’s face and followed with a double leg in every fight ever recorded of his on the internet. This pattern of techniques might allow Lewis to do what he does back and timing up the perfect KO shot.

Almeida vs. Lewis Betting Picks

If you want to make UFC predictions, check your local sportsbook and make sure you understand as much as possible about the UFC. 

After breaking down this fight in multiple ways, the official Almeida vs. Lewis prediction is Almeida winning by submission. The best bet to make is to take that method of victory at -110 and take the over 2.5 rounds at +800. Those are crazy lines to pass up on and who knows, Lewis might be able to survive 12.5 minutes with Almeida. 

Almeida is going to be in danger for the whole time until he takes Lewis out. Lewis is a tough guy still, but he is prone to tapping out of a choke that doesn’t feel too great to him. Almeida is predictable and can get hit, so don’t be surprised if Lewis catches him and ends the fight. That’s a perfectly fine massive underdog pick to make on Saturday. 

The smart bet is with Almeida here because of his recent form in fights and the aging that Lewis is going through. Along with that, outside distractions of getting arrested earlier this week will have to weigh on a fighter who has been on record before saying he has confidence issues on fight night. 

Top Sportsbooks Odds 

BetOnline: Almeida -500

Bovada: Almeida -550

MyBookie: Almeida -550

BetUS: Almeida -500

BetNow.eu: Almeida -550

Bonus Fight Pick

On this stacked card in Sao Paulo, a bonus pick to make is taking Gabriel Bonfim to beat Nicolas Dalby by submission at +125. He is a savage fighter and can finish fights both on the ground and striking. 

The Brazil crowd will love a submission victory from one of the most exciting rising prospects in the sport.

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