A promotional rookie steps into the main event spotlight on Saturday night against a tough and durable veteran, with main events and fights against past Champions on his resume. UFC veteran Sean Strickland faces relative UFC newcomer but MMA veteran Abus Magomedov in UFC on ESPN’s middleweight main event, with both fighters having won their previous fights heading into this weekend.
Onlinebettingsports goes deep into the fighters, their careers, and recent performances, and recent results in our Strickland vs Magomedov Prediction.
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Overall Fight Info & Outlook
Sean Strickland vs Abus Magomedov
Location: UFC Apex, Enterprise, Nevada
Date & Time: July 1, 2023, 7:00 PM ET
How to watch: ESPN +
Strickland vs Magomedov Betting Preview
Sean Strickland is a UFC veteran, making his promotional debut with a submission win over Bubba McDaniel in 2014. Since his debut, Strickland has a 13-5 record in the UFC, having fought across three weight classes and sharing the Octagon with former Welterweight king Kamaru Usman, Santiago Ponzinibbio, Jared Cannonier, and former middleweight champion Alex Pereira.
- Strickland won his last fight, ending a two-fight losing streak.
- Strickland has won seven of his last nine fights
- Strickland has won 14 of his career wins via stoppage (10 KO/TKO, 4 Submissions)
- Two of Strickland’s five career losses have come via KO/TKO. He has never been stopped via submission
Sean Strickland Stats
Having a long UFC career means we have a significant amount of in-fight data on Stickland.
Strickland is durable, having an average fight time of 14:26 and having been stopped only twice in his career. In the striking game, Strickland lands 5.76 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 41%. On the defensive side, Strickland absorbs 4.25 significant strikes per minute with a 63% defensive striking efficiency.
Strickland isn’t much for submissions, having four submissions in his 26 wins, with a UFC submission average of 0.2 per 15 minutes. Don’t expect Strickland to shoot for too many takedowns, as he’s averaging 1.04 takedowns per 15 minutes, with a takedown accuracy of 64%, while having an 85% efficiency rating in takedown defense.
Prediction for Winning This Fight
Our Strickland vs Magomedov prediction for Strickland to win this fight is to outstrike Magomedov and avoid the ground game. Magomedov has more submission victories than Strickland, with many of them coming via choke.
Strickland is likely durable and skilled enough to survive and win many of the striking exchanges. He’ll need his excellent takedown defense to stop Magomedov’s expected takedown attempts. We don’t see Strickland being submitted, but there is a first time for everything.
If Strickland is going to win this fight, we see him going the distance; his striking skills, defensive grappling, and durability will be what help him earn the victory over Magomedov.
It’s often difficult to make UFC predictions when a fighter has limited experience in the Octagon, with mostly regional promotions on their records. It’s also not often that a fighter moves from their octagon debut to main UFC Events in their next fight.
However, that’s part of the story of Abus Magomedov heading into Saturday night. Magomedov is not without big fight experience, having posted a 3-1-1 record in the PFL. Magomedov has a 7-1-1 in his last nine fights and a 12-2-1 record in his last fifteen fights.
- Magomedov has won his last three fights via stoppage (2 submissions, 1 KO/TKO)
- Magomedov has a combined 5-1-1 record in the UFC, PFL, and KSW
- Magomedov has 20 career wins via stoppage (14 KO/TKO, 6 Submissions)
- Magomedov has been stopped in three of his four losses (2 via submission, 1 via KO/TKO)
Abus Magomedov Stats
While there is a lot of tape on Magomedov’s career, the only fight stats we have available are from UFC’s Fightmetric and his 19-second destruction of Dustin Stoltzfus via front-kick knockout on September 9th, 2022.
Prediction for Winning This Fight
For Magomedov to win this fight, he’ll need to avoid head hunting and seeking the knockout, despite Strickland being stopped twice in his career via strikes, most recently losing via KO to Alex Pereira on July 2, 2022.
While Strickland is not the most successful at landing submission victories, he is tough to submit and has good defensive grappling, Magomedov might find his path to victory in a grappling exchange, but Strickland’s takedown defense is very good. Magomedov will need to initiate and complete his takedowns, landing his fight-stopping ground and pound to open up Strickland for a potential submission attempt, and could hand Strickland his first career submission loss.
If Magomedov is to defeat Strickland, it’ll be via decision, having outstruck Strickland and controlling the grappling exchanges when they happen. If Magomedov scores a win via stoppage, it could be through KO/TKO or submission.
Top Sportsbooks Odds
BetOnline: Strickland -148
Bovada: Strickland -150
MyBookie: Strickland -156
BetUS: Strickland -150
BetNow: Magomedov – 150
As you can see in these UFC odds, there are at least some oddsmakers and bettors who favor relative UFC newcomer Magomedov to defeat UFC veteran Strickland. However, UFC BetUs odds and most sportsbooks have tagged Strickland as the favorite in Saturday nights Main Event.
Strickland vs Magomedov Odds & Picks
Odds for this Fight
|Odds to win
|Total Rounds (Over/Under)
|Odds to win via Decision
|Odds to Win via Stoppage
|Over 3.5: -150
|Under 3.5: +120
OnlineBettingSports’ Strickland vs Magomedov prediction is for Sean Strickland to win the fight and for this fight to hit the over, going the distance and seeing the judges score cards.