After a rare weekend off of fights, we are starting up a string of great UFC events this fall season as lightweights Grand Dawson and Bobby Green are set to headline an event at the UFC APEX this Saturday night.

Dawson is the #10 ranked lightweight in the world, but this fight against the unranked Bobby Green is going to give him a brand new set of challenges that he hasn’t had yet. Green is a crafty veteran in MMA and can beat just about anybody on any given night. 

This is also a major opportunity for Green to jump to a top-10 contender with an upset win over the highly-touted Grant Dawson. Let’s take a close look at this lightweight matchup and see who is the best to bet on.

We will break down the Dawson vs Green odds, how to bet on UFC, and exactly what bet to make after making UFC predictions this weekend. 

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  • Grant Dawson is 4-0-1 in his last five appearances in the UFC octagon. 
  • Bobby Green is 2-2 1NC in his last five UFC appearances. 
  • Dawson has been the betting favorite in every single UFC bout he’s been in besides his most recent bout against Damir Ismagulov. (+105 underdog)
  • Green has been the betting underdog in four out of his last ten UFC bouts heading into this week.
  • Dawson has 17 finishes (four KO and 13 SUB) in his professional MMA career. (22 fights)
  • Green has 19 finishes (10 KO and nine SUB) in his professional MMA career. (45 fights)

How to Bet on Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green

If you are trying to figure out how to bet on the UFC, this is a great place to start. This main event on Saturday night is a great example of the unpredictable matchmaking that we see on the biggest stage. Even though Green isn’t ranked, he’s looked at as a gatekeeper to the bigger fights in this division.

According to UFC odds, Dawson is coming in as the big-time -425 betting favorite over the +325 Green this week. This money line is interesting because this is the most favorable odds Dawson has had since 2020, when he fought Darrick Minner, who is no longer in the UFC.

When trying to decide who to bet on in a fight like this, you have to take time and learn more about both of the athletes competing. Looking at UFC stats, their records, and watching the tape of their recent performances is what can take you to the next level in MMA betting.

Dawson’s World-Class Skills

The Dawson vs Green odds suggest Dawson is most likely going to be dominant in this bout and win with ease. The tricky part about the UFC is they always have the best fight the best. Anything can happen when those octagon gates lock.

Dawson is a legit contender and has world-class skills, but it’s all about who can show up in the big moments. Green has over 45 professional MMA fights in his career and has been in plenty of big moments–even headlining multiple events. Coming off a big win over the legendary Tony Ferguson, Green is coming into this weekend with tons of momentum.

Even if you know exactly who you are predicting to win a fight, the betting lines are the second most important aspect of this because you have to find the best bet to make around how you expect the fight to play out.

Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green Betting Picks

Green’s Impressive Fight Resume

With the Dawson vs Green odds put aside, let’s look at this matchup from an unbiased point of view with no outside forces impacting your thinking. Dawson has the physical advantage due to his age and his visible explosiveness. 

The advantages that Green has come from his experience and his fight IQ. The number of fighters he has fought with tons of potential and hype or even bonafide stars, is unbelievable.

Dustin Poirier, Edson Barboza, James Kraus, Josh Thompson, Clay Guida, Thiago Moises, Rafael Fiziev, Nasrat Haqparast, Islam Makhachev, and now Tony Ferguson are just brief examples of Green’s resume. 

That resume alone and how he looked a few months ago should give him a much better chance at winning than the odds might suggest. 

Dawson’s Mental Test

Dawson is an animal on the ground. He uses his physical condition and technical skills as a weapon that no one has been able to solve in the UFC thus far. His ability to make his opponent give their back and then use his unhuman squeeze to submit them is very fun to watch. 

The official prediction for this main event bout is going to be a rare major upset pick. We are going with Bobby Green to get his hand raised at +325 and to really shake up the lightweight division. 

Green is going to make the fight weird for Dawson by using his mind games and strong takedown defense. Green also has sneaky submission skills and has won 9 fights via submission in his career–don’t count him out on the ground. 

Everything points to Dawson in this matchup until you get to the intangibles. Green has them all; we know that for a fact. Dawson faces a mental test. The outcome will be fascinating, regardless of the result. The mental game is vital in UFC.

All in all, we are in for an exciting UFC fight night tonight.

Top Sportsbooks Odds 

BetOnline: Green +325

Bovada: Green +320

MyBookie: Green +299

BetUS: Green +315

BetNow: Green +325

Bonus! Other Fights Worth Placing a Bet On

One of the most exciting fights on this weekend’s card will be the co-main event between middleweights Joe Pyfer and Abdul Razak Alhasson. These two both have one-punch KO power and slick striking skills. Don’t blink and bet the under in this one. 

Another fight to watch and bet on is the bout that’s setting the table for the two headliner fights. Welterweights Alex Morono and Joaquin Buckley are throwing down in the APEX octagon. These two could pass as middleweights, and both have KO power as well. There will be no backward steps taken from either; bet at UFC on Bovada on a finish.

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