One of the most special UFC events of the year is taking place this weekend at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas at “Noche UFC.” This is an event that will celebrate Mexican Independence Day and showcase a bunch of special talents from Mexico and Mexican heritage.
The main event of Saturday night will be the rematch between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko after last March when Grasso shocked the world and submitted the otherwise dominant Shevchenko.
Let’s take a closer look at this matchup, break down the much different UFC odds for these two, and try to map out how this fight might play out this time around.
This is the best place to get Grasso vs Shevchenko picks for your weekend betting slate. Make sure to bet at UFC on Bovada if you are looking for the best odds.
Top Sportsbooks to Bet on UFC
Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko Betting Trends
- Alexa Grasso is 5-0 in her last five appearances in the UFC octagon.
- Valentina Shevchenko is 4-1 in her last five UFC appearances.
- Grasso has been the underdog in four out of her 12 total UFC fights, including closing at +635 against Shevchenko earlier this year.
- Shevchenko has been the betting favorite in every single one of her UFC bouts besides her first against Sarah Kaufman and her third fight against Holly Holm. She was the favorite even in both of her losses to the great Amanda Nunes.
- Grasso has six finishes (four KO and two SUB) in his professional MMA career. (26 fights)
- Shevchenko has 15 finishes (eight KO and seven SUB) in his professional MMA career. (27 fights)
How to Bet on Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko
If you want to learn how to bet on UFC and this is your first time, this is a very interesting weekend to start with this main event. It’s a rare moment where someone won the title as a massive underdog, and now the immediate rematch is a much closer fight on the books.
First, we have to preview all of the betting lines available for this bout. Shevchenko, despite coming off a submission loss, is the betting favorite at -160 around this time in the middle of fight week. Grasso, the champion, is coming in as the +140 underdog this week.
Other key betting lines include the over/under set at 4.5 rounds, with the ‘over’ being favored at around -142. You can also get this fight going the distance at -140, Grasso at +330 to win again inside the distance, and Shevchenko at +225 to do the same.
There are many more prop bets available at major sportsbooks where you can have fun and see if any jump out at you; for you experienced UFC bettors.
A Unique Matchup: Last Fight in March Holds the Key
Next, we have to break down the tape of both women and the styles they bring to the table. This fight is unique because we really only need to look at their last fight in March. In that fight, we saw both women have success.
At the beginning of the fight, Grasso came out with a lot of pressure and confidence and ended up taking that round on the scorecards because she landed the heavier shots and won positions on the ground.
Then Shevchenko started fighting her fight and landing from range while also landing beautifully-timed takedowns where Grasso didn’t seem to react well at all. Grasso made it difficult for Shevchenko by fighting out of the southpaw stance for most of the time, which took away the body kicks that Shevchenko loves to use.
One mistake by Shevchenko throwing a spinning back kick as Grasso crowded her led to a perfect back-take and a choke, crowning the newest UFC women’s flyweight champion.
Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko Betting Picks
After knowing how the last fight went and how good Grasso looked, these betting odds seem legit, and this fight is going to be very closely matched. Grasso has championship confidence and belief, and Shevchenko’s mindset is unknown going into this–but you know she is training hard and focused to get back her belt.
UFC predictions are so tough to make because the fights are so unpredictable, and we have no idea how healthy either of these fighters are going into this weekend. It all comes down to who will be the better man or woman on fight night.
The official prediction for this title bout is that it will be a 5-round war, and Shevchenko will get the nod on the scorecards, setting up a very big trilogy fight next year. It’s tough to imagine someone as elite as Shevchenko losing twice to the same person, but Grasso will be there for all 25 minutes.
The reasoning for believing this will be a full 25-minute war is the adjustments that will be made. Shevchenko will not make any mistakes up against the cage and probably won’t even throw any spinning techniques. Grasso NEEDS to be better early on in takedown defense, see those level changes quicker, and get her hips away from Shevchenko.
A year ago, if someone said that you could take Valentina Shevchenko at -160 odds, you’d probably not believe it. The smart bet is with “The Bullet” all day on this one. The third fight will be an even bigger toss-up because of all the adjustments both will make.
Top Sportsbooks Odds
BetOnline: Shevchenko -160
Bovada: Shevchenko -170
MyBookie: Shevchenko -169
BetUs: Shevchenko -175
BetNow: Shevchenko -170
Bonus! Other Fights Worth Placing a Bet On
Noche UFC is full of other great fights as well. The co-main event is a banger of a welterweight fight where fan-favorite and rising contender Kevin Holland takes on the dangerous Jack Della Maddalena in a massive fight as both look to break into the top half of the welterweight rankings with quite a few big fights to pick from waiting for them towards the top.
One more interesting fight to place a bet on has to be the fight right before the co-main, where 18-year-old Raul Rosas Jr. takes on a talented Terrence Mitchell. Rosas Jr. is a massive -770 favorite coming off an ego-shattering loss in his last bout.
This is very interesting because it’s tough to believe that you have a -770 favorite in the UFC, and it’s a teenager who might not even be done with puberty.