The most anticipated of all the 2023 UFC events is finally here this weekend when Dustin Poirier takes on Justin Gaethje for the BMF Title on Saturday night in Salt Lake City. This rematch of a war these two had five years ago will surely be one you shouldn’t miss. Let’s break down this fight on multiple levels and find the official Poirier vs Gaethje prediction ahead of making your betting picks this weekend.
These two are destined for a violent fight, creating an interesting energy between the two of them during fight week. It seems like they both aren’t excited about how much violence there will be in the octagon, but they thrive under those circumstances.
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UFC: Poirier vs. Gaethje Betting Trends
- Dustin Poirier is 4-1 in his last five appearances in the UFC octagon.
- Justin Gaethje is 3-2 in his last five UFC appearances.
- Poirier has been the betting favorite in eight out of his last ten UFC bouts.
- Gaethje has been the underdog in eight out of his last ten UFC fights.
- Poirier has 22 finishes (14 KO and eight SUB) in his professional MMA career.
- Gaethje has 20 finishes (19 KO and one SUB) in his professional MMA career.
How to Bet on Poirier vs. Gaethje
Take a look at the betting lines
If you want to put money into this main event bout, bet on the UFC at BetUS to get Dustin Poirier at -145 and Justin Gaethje at +115 to win. The under 3.5 round total is favored at -165, meaning oddsmakers don’t expect this fight to go much longer than 15 minutes tops. According to UFC odds, it’s currently +200 for this fight to go the distance, which is very rare to see in the 155 lb. division.
If you want to make UFC predictions, it’s important to know how unpredictable the sport is. With a fight of this stature, you shouldn’t overthink it and try to get too specific in prop bets or anything like that. The money line for either athlete has plenty of value.
You will also need to take time to review all the betting lines at different sportsbooks, watch old fight footage, and even take a look at the statistics of both fighters. Anything can help you get a grasp of what pick you want to make.
Poirier vs Gaethje Skills Overview
For a bit of help on what to look for while breaking down this fight, let’s look at the key skills that each fighter brings to the octagon on Saturday night. Poirier has the advantage of technical skillsets in kickboxing and boxing range. He is a slick Southpaw with good counters and good eyes.
Gaethje brings the pressure and has a lot of speed in both his hands and legs. His leg kicks are arguably the best the UFC has ever seen, and that will need to be his key weapon in this one. If he can break down the foundation of Poirier, this fight can start to sway in his favor.
Altitude Could Be a Factor
Another big factor in this fight has to be the elevation of Salt Lake City. Fighters like Poirier like to play that off as it doesn’t matter because he never gets tired, but the proof is in the past event earlier this year in Utah. Literally, every single fight had someone completely gas out in the second round of the battle.
Poirier vs. Gaethje Betting Picks
The official Poirier vs Gaethje prediction for this UFC 291 main event is that Poirier will win again. To be clear, this fight is basically a 50/50 pick ‘em fight. There are so many different ways this can go it’s impossible to be sure of a pick.
The best advice for you betting on this is to make it simple. Take Poirier’s money line and hope for the best. If you get picky and want to bet on a method of victory, the only way to do it is Poirier inside the distance. Don’t pick what round or anything like that. Poirier is just the better fighter. He is calculated, and he continues to get better every time he steps into the cage. The slick boxing and counterpunching of Poirier is going to be tough for Gaethje to get through.
Don’t be surprised if Poirier mixes in a well-timed takedown as well if he needs to. Poirier’s ego isn’t big enough to only keep this fight standing–he wants to win more than anything.
The only worry for this Poirier vs Gaethje prediction is the leg kicks and how he will be in the elevation. If he counters leg kicks early and checks them as best as he can, he will be in a very good position to run away with this fight.
Top Sportsbooks Odds
BetOnline: Poirier -145
Bovada: Poirier -145
MyBookie: Poirier -153
BetUS: Poirier -145
BetNow: Poirier -169
Bonus! Other Fights Worth Placing a Bet On
UFC light heavyweight bout: Jan Blachowicz (-117) vs. Alex Pereira (-103)
In the co-main event of UFC 291, Pereira is making his debut at 205 lbs and will be taking on former world champion Jan Blachowicz. Will the legendary Polish Power be able to defeat the former middleweight champion?
Pereira’s power will most likely be able to translate to this division, along with more durability without that terrible weight cut to 185 lbs. We are giving Blachowicz the slight edge here due to his wrestling abilities.
UFC welterweight bout: Stephen Thompson (-150) vs. Michel Pereira (+130)
This is an awesome fight between two very exciting fighters. Thompson is arguably one of the best strikers in UFC history, and Pereira is an uber-athletic man that has the ability to end the fight at any moment.
The edge goes to Thompson because he just isn’t going to be outstruck by anybody, even at 40 years old. Also, high altitude seems like it would be Pereira’s worst nightmare.
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