The UFC heavyweight division is in the spotlight this weekend when the second-ever Paris event in UFC history is taking place with Ciryl Gane and Sergey Spivak in the headlining slot of the card.
Making UFC predictions on fights with two men at this level in the sport is very difficult to do, especially if it’s a heavyweight fight. Heavyweight MMA in the UFC is basically a different sport nowadays.
The athleticism and power of these fighters make the risk of every move they make in the octagon way larger. One mistake will most likely lead to you waking up looking at the jumbotron.
Let’s take a closer look at this heavyweight matchup and break down the UFC odds and the styles, and then make the best Gane vs Spivak picks possible for this weekend’s betting slate.
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UFC: Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivak Betting Trends
- Ciryl Gane is 3-2 in his last five appearances in the UFC octagon.
- Sergey Spivak is 4-1 in his last five UFC appearances.
- Gane has been the betting favorite in every single UFC bout besides his last one against Jon Jones.
- Spivak is the betting underdog this weekend for only the fourth time in his career. Two of his losses have been as the underdog.
- Gane has eight finishes (five KO and three SUB) in his professional MMA career. (13 fights)
- Spivak has 14 finishes (seven KO and seven SUB) in his professional MMA career. (19 fights)
How to Bet on Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivak
If you want to learn how to bet on the UFC, this is a great place to start. The Parisian heavyweight main event promises an exciting showdown, captivating to watch and fully immerse oneself in. First, let’s take a look at the available betting lines.
Gane is coming in as the -175 betting favorite over Spivak, who is the +145 underdog. You can get those exact lines if you bet at UFC on Bovada, which also has tons of alternate lines and prop bets. Since this is a very close fight, we don’t have to look into too many prop bets with the value already in the moneyline.
Next, we look at the film of both fighters and how they have looked in their most recent fights. After watching these two elite fighters in recent years, it’s easy to see that a major key in this matchup is how the wrestling exchanges go.
Gane struggles on the defensive end of grappling. He has a 40% takedown defense and has lost both of his title fights due to being out-grappled.
Hailing from Moldova, Spivak is a lethal force with impressive boxing, knockout potency, and top-tier divisional wrestling skills. To be honest, the betting lines are kind of surprising with this clash of styles.
Strategic Game Plan: Gane’s Approach to Keep Distance
Gane aims to employ front and leg kicks to maintain distance, aiming to target Spivak’s body and legs for damage. If Gane can survive the first round without being finished on the ground, this fight starts to be more favorable for him.
Spivak probably doesn’t want to let Gane dictate the pacing of this fight, and he won’t want to fight at kickboxing range for very long. Spivak’s strategic entries, level adjustments, and clinching against the fence hold significance, presenting potential for significant opportunities in the fight.
Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivak Betting Picks
After breaking down the betting lines and the experience of watching hundreds of past UFC events play out, there’s a very specific reason behind the prediction we are going to make.
The official Gane vs. Spivak prediction is that Spivak will maul his way to getting his hand raised on Saturday night in front of a very bummed Paris crowd. Gane is a great athlete with tons of skills and a slick style. The narrative from his camp that he is lazy or not as motivated as other fighters is such a red flag as a sports bettor. This sport doesn’t let anybody take shortcuts, and when they do, they get exposed against the best.
If Gane hasn’t completely changed his way of life after being dominated by a novice wrestler like Francis Ngannou and then being run right through by Jon Jones in seconds on the ground, it’s going to be a tough night for the French MMA fans.
Spivak has dedicated his life to becoming UFC champion. He hasn’t been spoiled by the media and the riches of being an interim champ and headlining cards in his home country, but he has been chasing that feeling every day.
It’s very possible that you will see Spivak finish Gane inside of round 1, but even if Gane survives the first round or two, it seems like Spivak will either dominate this fight on the ground or find his chin by putting relentless pressure on Gane.
Since the odds are perfect for this underdog pick, the moneyline will be plenty to cash out on for Spivak, and you don’t need to sweat any specific outcome to collect a good payout. If you need help on how to bet on UFC, go with Spivak to win this fight at +145.
Top Sportsbooks Odds
BetOnline: Spivak +157
Bovada: Spivak +145
MyBookie: Spivak +139
BetUS: Spivak +145
BetNow: Spivak +132
Bonus! Other Fights Worth Placing a Bet On
UFC co-main event: Manon Fiorot (-210) vs. Rose Namajunas (+170)
The co-main event of this Paris card is going to be awesome as the hometown hero Fiorot welcomes former strawweight champion Namajunas into the flyweight division.
Namajunas will be the smaller woman, and that will be the big question, but she will be prepared and have a great game plan going into this fight that will make it very competitive.
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