Odds, Picks and Predictions

The Houston Astros have come out with purpose after the All-Star break, winning five straight games against the Yankees and a three-game sweep of the Seattle Mariners, ending their 14-game winning streak in the process.

Now the Astros (64-32) visit the Oakland Athletics (35-63) with Game 1 of a three-game set beginning at 9:40 p.m. ET on Monday.

Thirty games separate the two in the American League West. Houston has a prime opportunity to close on the New York Yankees – currently 1.5 games back – for the best record in the AL.

Jake Odorizzi gets the start for Houston. He’s 4-2 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP (Walks, Hits per Innings Pitched).

The Astros are 6-4 in his starts, and the over/under is 3-7. His last two starts have come against Oakland, allowing three runs on nine hits across 12.1 innings pitched combined between them. The seven scoreless innings were in a 6-1 Astros win on July 10, while the rest was in a 4-3 loss on July 17.

Adam Oller will deliver the first pitch for Oakland. He is 0-3 with an 8.56 ERA and 1.98 WHIP. The A’s are 1-4 in his starts, and the over/under is 3-2. He allowed three earned on six hits (two home runs) in 4.1 innings in that 4-3 A’s win.

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics Match Info

Location: Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, California

Date: Monday, July 25, 2022

Time: 9:40 p.m. ET

TV: ATT Sportsnet SW, Bally Sports California

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics Odds

Odds are listed in moneyline, run line, and over/under order:

  • BetOnline – Astros -222, Athletics +201; Astros -1.5 (-130), Athletics +1.5 (+110); 8
  • Bovada – Astros -230, Athletics +190; Astros -1.5 (-130), Athletics +1.5 (+110); 8
  • MyBookie – Astros -235, Athletics +190; Astros -1.5 (-130), Athletics +1.5 (+110); 8
  • BetUS – Astros -230, Athletics +190; Astros -1.5 (-130), Athletics +1.5 (+110); 8
  • BetNow – Astros -220, Athletics +200; Astros -1.5 (-130), Athletics +1.5 (+110); 8

Pitting the top team in the division against the worst yields the odds as expected. Oakland has been borderline noncompetitive, and these odds reflect it.

The Astros‘ moneyline advantage is at BetNow -220 with the Athletics at BetOnline +201. The run line is the same regardless of sportsbook, and there is no variance in over/under number, though odds may differ slightly if you want the over or under.

  • The under is 5-0 in the last five meetings and 6-2 in the last eight in Oakland
  • The Astros are 5-1 in the last six meetings in Oakland and 8-3 in the last 11, regardless of location
  • Public betting shows 83% of bets on the Astros’ moneyline and 59% on the over
  • Houston is 34-59-3 on over/unders this season and 34-18 away from home
  • Oakland is 39-52-7 on over/unders this season and 14-34 at home

Astros’ offense must execute

If there has been a weakness for the Astros this season, it is their offense. They have great power numbers but don’t often have guys on base to drive them home. They average 4.53 runs per game (14th) yet showcased some small ball and are scoring 5.2 runs per game since the All-Star break.

Their .241 batting average ranks 17th, yet they only strike out 7.62 times per game (third best in the league). Their power numbers are great, with a .742 OPS (fifth) and 1.44 home runs per game (third).

Yordan Alvarez is questionable with a hand injury on Monday. He is a Most Valuable Player candidate this season, hitting .307 with a 1.079 OPS, 28 home runs, 65 RBIs, and 61 runs scored.

Jose Altuve has 17 doubles, 19 home runs, and 54 runs scored. Yuli Gurriel has a team-best 27 doubles. Kyle Tucker has 18 home runs and 63 RBIs.

The offense is a minor concern as far as this series goes but look for the Astros look to add ahead of the deadline with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.

Houston pitching is allowing 3.38 runs per game, third best, with the best opposing batting average (.211) and opposing OPS (.617). They also strike out 9.08 hitters per game, ranking sixth.

Oakland needs to support its pitchers

From a historical perspective, it seems as if this is almost always the case. The Athletics’ offense is among the worst in baseball, while the pitching staff is respectable.

Their staff is allowing 4.68 runs per game, which ranks 22nd and is decent considering they dealt several key players away, including Sean Manaea and defensive standout Matt Chapman. Pitching is allowing opponents to have a .247 batting average (20th) and .730 OPS (23rd).

Cole Irvin and Frankie Montas, due to pitch the last two games of the series, have been excellent for Oakland’s staff. The bullpen has had success, too, with A.J. Puk, Sam Moll, and Zach Jackson all having sub-3 ERAs.

But it’s an offensive game, and without Chapman and, especially, Matt Olson, Oakland is struggling. The A’s even dealt Christian Bethancourt, who was having a career resurgence. As a team, Oakland is second worst, scoring 3.45 runs per game. They have the league’s worst batting average (.213) and OPS (.611).

Only three players – Seth Brown (12), Sean Murphy (11), and Ramon Laureano (10) – have double-digit home runs, and Laureano has played in roughly 20 fewer games.

Murphy is the leader with 23 doubles, 40 runs scored, and 40 RBIs as well. But it still isn’t enough, as aside from Brown’s 41 RBIs, nobody else on the team has higher than 25.

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics Picks and Predictions

  • Aside from taking the Athletics, the moneyline doesn’t seem like a viable option for Astros bettors, not for those looking to maximize potential earnings at least. If wanting the safe, guaranteed option with a smaller payout, Astros -220 is respectable.
  • There is blowout potential here, which could mean the Astros score a bunch and cover the over themselves, but it is a pitcher’s park. The under history is worth considering, too, but if taking the Astros’ run line, the over must be considered.
  • This game is clearly one-sided, and even though Odorizzi lost his last start to Oakland, the Astros should have better success. Alvarez’s status is one to watch, but we’re going to take the upside that they win by two or more runs and take Houston -1.5 (-130).

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