MLB

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays Odds, Picks and Predictions

The Boston Red Sox continue a two-week stretch of playing just the Tampa Bay Rays or New York Yankees leading up to the All-Star break. Monday’s 7:10 p.m. game at Tropicana Field is the first of four games against Tampa Bay, which beat the Red Sox twice in a three-game series last week.

Brayan Bello will be making his second start in hopes of improving on his Major League debut on July 6. He gave up six hits, walked three, and allowed four earned runs with two strikeouts across four innings in an eventual 7-1 Rays victory.

The versatile Matt Wisler toes the rubber for the Rays. He’s appeared in 35 games and will make his fifth start. He is 2-3 and 1 for 4 in save opportunities, though he has a 2.58 ERA and has 31 strikeouts in 38.1 innings pitched. He got a strikeout in one inning of relief in the aforementioned victory.

Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Match Info

Location: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida

Date: Monday, July 11, 2022

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

TV: NESN, Bally Sports Sun

Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Odds

Odds are listed in moneyline, run line and over/under order:

  • BetOnline – Red Sox -108, Rays -102; Red Sox -1.5 (+145), Rays +1.5 (-165); 7.5
  • Bovada – Red Sox -117, Rays -103; Red Sox -1.5 (+145), Rays +1.5 (-170); 7.5
  • MyBookie – Red Sox -120, Rays +100; Red Sox -1.5 (+140), Rays +1.5 (-170); 7.5
  • BetUS – Red Sox -110, Rays +100; Red Sox -1.5 (+155), Rays +1.5 (-175); 7.5
  • BetNow – Red Sox -113, Rays +103; Red Sox -1.5 (+145), Rays +1.5 (-165); 7.5

The best Red Sox moneyline odds are at BetOnline at -108, while the best Rays odds are at BetNow at +103. The Red Sox run line is pretty consistent, but BetUS is offering +155 to win by two runs or more.

Tampa Bay‘s Run line odds are best at BetOnline and BetNow at -165 to cover +1.5. The over/under is 7.5 across the board, but each book has varying odds, with the under more profitable and less likely.

Betting Trends

  • The Rays are 10-4 in the last 14 meetings between the two in St. Petersburg
  • The Red Sox are 1-4 in the last five meetings regardless of location
  • The under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in St. Petersburg
  • The under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings regardless of location
  • Public interest shows 75% of public bets on the Rays’ moneyline
  • Public bettors are favoring the over, with 70% of bets swaying that way
  • The Red Sox are 36-41-9 on over/unders and 24-19 away from home
  • The Rays are 39-41-5 on over/unders and 25-17 at home

Boston’s energy riding high

The Red Sox are 3-3 in the middle of this intense stretch against the top American League East teams. Boston (47-39) had a walk-off in extra innings on Saturday and then a come-from-behind win to take the series from the Yankees on Sunday. That energy has been important and needs to continue against a Rays team it has struggled with, particularly in St. Petersburg.

In the early going, it was the offense that struggled, but the tide has shifted. The Red Sox are scoring 4.79 runs per game, ranking fifth, with the league’s best batting average at .261 and seventh OPS at .741. They are in the top third of the league in strikeouts per game, averaging 8.07.

Rafael Devers, who is questionable with a back injury and has missed the last two games, is having a Most Valuable Player caliber campaign. He’s hitting .327 with 27 doubles, 19 home runs, 51 RBIs, and 59 runs scored – all but RBIs lead the team. Xander Bogaerts is hitting .311 with 21 doubles and 50 runs scored. J.D. Martinez is hitting .311 with 27 doubles and 49 runs scored.

Beyond that trio, others are heating up. Christian Vazquez is hitting .292 with 17 doubles and 35 RBIs.

Trevor Story leads the team with 58 RBIs and is second in home runs with 15. Alex Verdugo also has improved, hitting .262 with 16 doubles and 46 RBIs, which is third.

The pitching staff needs to get healthy and probably needs added depth. Help is on the way with several pitchers returning this month, but look for Boston to be active at the deadline.

The Red Sox are allowing 4.19 runs per game, ranking 12th, and allow an opposing batting average of .236 (13th) and opposing OPS of .692 (11th).

Rays needing to find offense

The injury bug has bitten the Rays in a big way, and their offense is suffering as a result. Wander Franco had returned for not more than a week before suffering a wrist injury and hitting the injured list again. Outfielders Kevin Kiermaier and Manuel Margot’s presence hurts both offensively and defensively, plus Brandon Lowe is out.

Tampa Bay (45-40) will be looking to upgrade with bats, and they’ve already added Christian Bethancourt. The Rays are scoring 4.16 runs per game, rankings 23rd, with a .238 batting average (21st) and .684 OPS (25th).

Randy Arozarena has been the most consistent for the Rays, with team bests of 20 doubles, 40 RBIs, 40 runs scored, and 18 stolen bases. He is second with ten home runs and one of five with a pair of triples.

Isaac Paredes was red hot to close June and enter July. He has 13 home runs to lead the team. Yandy Diaz is hitting .299 with 16 doubles and 36 runs scored, while Harold Ramirez is hitting .324 with 32 RBIs, 15 doubles, and 28 runs scored.

The pitching staff remains great, ranking sixth in allowing 3.95 runs per game. Opponents have a .229 batting average (fifth among staffs) and a .673 OPS (sixth).

The variance of arm slots, velocities, and all with high RPMs allow for the Rays to be so lethal, even using openers as opposed to traditional starters.

Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions

  • Recency bias shows how powerful the Red Sox are with those two wins against the Yankees (61-25). The moneyline swings in their favor despite Bello’s debut, which happened against the Rays.
  • There is value in taking the under, especially with a Rays offense that struggles. But it is lower by a full run than the three games last week, which listed at 8.5, 9, and 9.5, with the over going 1-2 (12 runs to go over 9). The 8.5 went under with a total of 8. So 7.5 is clearly strategic, given that was the game Bello started, too.
  • There is too much consistency in the Rays and winning at home, which makes little sense given how poor attendance numbers are and so much so that there are rumors of moving the Rays elsewhere. Still, their pitching staff is one of the best in baseball and limited the Red Sox to nine runs across three games last week. We’ll take Rays +103 to win outright.

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