Odds, Picks and Predictions.

The Boston Red Sox have taken a woeful slide to start the week. They were swept by their divisional rival, the Tampa Bay Rays, in a four-game set. That dropped them to 47-43 and 2½ games behind the Rays in the wild-card chase.

Prior to that series, they had a pair of emotional wins against the New York Yankees at home, including a walkoff and comeback victory against the Yankees’ talented bullpen.

Now they gear up for a visit to Yankee Stadium for a three-game series beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET on Friday. It’s the last set before the All-Star break.

Boston sends Nathan Eovaldi to the mound, who is ready after a rehab assignment. He is 4-2 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.10 WHIP (Walks, Hits per Innings Pitched) this season.

The Red Sox are 6-6 in his starts, and the over/under is 6-5. For his career, he’s allowed a .695 OPS and .287 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) across 16 appearances. He’s been prone to give up home runs, 11 for his career against the Yankees and two against 23 hitters in a start this season.

Jordan Montgomery gets the start for the league-best Yankees (62-27). He is 3-2 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.03 WHIP this season. The Yankees are 9-8 in his starts, and the over/under is 8-9.

He’s started twice against the Red Sox this season, allowing five runs across nine innings and giving two extra-base hits out of nine total.

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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Match Info

Location: Yankee Stadium, New York, New York

Date: Friday, July 15, 2022

Time: 7:05 p.m. ET

TV: NESN, Amazon Prime Video, MLB Network (out of market)

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Odds

Odds are listed in moneyline, run line and over/under order:

  • BetOnline – Red Sox +144, Yankees -156; Red Sox +1.5 (-142), Yankees -1.5 (+122); 8
  • Bovada – Red Sox +138, Yankees -164; Red Sox +1.5 (-140), Yankees -1.5 (+120); 8
  • MyBookie – Red Sox +140, Yankees -165; Red Sox +1.5 (-145), Yankees -1.5 (+125); 8.5
  • BetUS – Red Sox +140, Yankees -155; Red Sox +1.5 (-140), Yankees -1.5 (+120); 8
  • BetNow – Red Sox +147, Yankees -157; Red Sox +1.5 (-140), Yankees -1.5 (+120); 8

The best moneyline odds for the Red Sox are +147 at BetNow, while the best moneyline odds for the Yankees are -155 at BetUS.

The Red Sox‘s run line odds of +1.5 (-140) are the same at three books – Bovada, BetUS, and BetNow.

The Yankeese’ run line odds of -1.5 (+125) at MyBookie are the best. The over/under is eight, but if there’s a hook and under, MyBookie is the spot at 8.5.

Betting Trends

  • Data shows bettors are favoring the Yankees’ moneyline 66% of the time
  • It also shows 66% of bettors are on the over
  • The over is 4-0 in the last four games
  • Though the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in New York
  • The Yankees have dominated the rivalry at home, sporting a 38-15 record in the last 53 meetings in the Bronx
  • That includes a 10-4 spur in the last 14 meetings regardless of location
  • Though the Red Sox won the last two games of last weekend’s series at Fenway Park
  • Boston is 38-43-9 on over/unders and 24-23 away from home
  • The Yankees are 42-45-2 on over/unders and 35-11 at home

Boston pitching needs to lock in

Boston’s offense showed they’re capable in the last series against the Yankees. The pitching was what suffered in the two aforementioned wins. When playing the best team in baseball, everything has to be in unison.

Eovaldi is one of a number of Red Sox starting pitchers set to return over the next month. The staff was strong to start the year but has fallen to league average, allowing 4.27 runs per game. An opposing batting average of .237 and opposing OPS of .693 rank 11th and 12th, respectively.

The bullpen has been somewhat unreliable, though adding Jon Schreiber, who has a 1.16 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 31 innings, has been a lift. Hiroku Sawamura and Austin Davis also have sub-3 ERAs, while Matt Strahm, Garrett Whitlock, and Tanner Houck have been flexed into many high leverage opportunities.

As bad as the offense was to start the year, they’ve hit their anticipated level, ranking sixth while scoring 4.73 runs per game. A .259 team batting average is third, and their OPS of .735 ranks seventh. However, the power is more gap to gap with doubles than home runs, in which they hit 0.96 per game (20th).

Rafael Devers is on a Most Valuable Player pace, hitting .327 with 28 doubles, 20 home runs, 52 RBIs, and 60 runs scored. Alongside Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez, they’ve led the way while Alex Verdugo, Christian Vazquez, and others have heated up over time.

Injury statuses to watch include Trevor Story (hand), Strahm (wrist), and Whitlock (hip), who are all questionable on Friday.

Yankees must be the best

It’s been a different level from the first week as the Yankees have the best pitching staff and best offense.

They are scoring 5.24 runs per game despite a league average batting average of .243. They have a stout offense because of their league-best OPS of .768 and averaging the most home runs per game at 1.68.

Aaron Judge has been the frontrunner for MVP, but he’s ice cold at the plate. He’s hitting .278 with 31 home runs, 66 RBIs, and 69 runs scored. Anthony Rizzo continues to hit with 22 home runs, 57 RBIs, and 50 runs scored. D.J. LeMahieu has 51 runs scored.

Giancarlo Stanton’s 23 homers and 58 RBIs and the resurgence of Gleybor Torres – who has 18 doubles, 14 home runs, 40 RBIs, and 42 runs scored – has been a key piece in the lineup.

The pitching staff is allowing 3.26 runs per game, the best rate in the league. Opposing batting averages of .216 and OPS of .628 are the second-best marks. Their 9.13 strikeouts per game is fifth.

The starters have been great all year but so has the backend of the bullpen. Clay Holmes did not drop off at all, being elevated to closer when Aroldis Chapman hit the injured list. Holmes is 4-1 with a 1.34 ERA and 16 saves in 18 opportunities.

Chapman is 9-for-9 and is still an effective piece. Michael King has been great in high leverage situations and is 6-1 with a 2.23 ERA and has 64 strikeouts in 48.1 innings pitched.

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Picks and Predictions

  • Given the pitching matchup, the moneyline seems fair. It favors the best team in baseball because of their consistency and also acknowledges Boston has the better starter.
  • The over/under of eight seems light given the series they split at Fenway last week was 4-0 in favor of the over.
  • It’s hard to know whether Eovaldi will be on a pitch count or not or how effective he’ll be. The Red Sox wouldn’t bring him back if they weren’t believers; he could help them. But Boston is coming off a poor series in Tampa Bay and won’t have the Fenway Faithful to fall back on. We’ll ride with the Yankees -155 and would entertain their run line.

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