Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Odds, Picks and Predictions

NL East showdown pits the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies against one another for the opener of a three-game series at 7:05 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

Atlanta (42-32) sits five games behind the New York Mets for the division lead. The defending champs are 19-5 throughout June to surge into the playoff picture. The Phillies (39-35) are eight games behind the Mets.

Atlanta gives the ball to Charlie Morton, who is 4-3 with a 4.83 ERA. The Braves are 8-6 in his starts, and the over/under is 11-3.

Morton allowed four earned runs across four straight starts before allowing just two in his last two starts. He got a no-decision on May 25 against the Phillies, allowing four earned runs on nine hits in 4.1 innings pitched.

Zack Wheeler opposes him for Philadelphia. Wheeler is 6-4 with a 2.77 ERA. The Phillies are 7-6 in his starts, and the over/under is 7-5. Wheeler has allowed two earned runs or less in his last seven starts, including giving up two on May 23 on eight hits and getting the win against the Braves.

Injuries may keep stars out of the opener. Ronald Acuna Jr. missed Sunday’s series finale against the Dodgers and is questionable for Tuesday’s game with a foot injury.

Bryce Harper just got hit by a pitch against the Padres and was ruled out till late August. He was having a MVP caliber season, hitting .318 with 21 doubles, 15 home runs, 49 runs scored, and 48 RBIs.

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Match Info

Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Date: Tuesday, June 28, 2022

Time: 7:05 p.m. ET

TV: Bally Sports South, NBC Sports Philadelphia

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Odds are listed in moneyline, run line and over/under order:

  • BetOnline – Braves +102, Phillies -112; Braves +1.5 (-210), Phillies -1.5 (+180); 7.5
  • Bovada – Braves -105, Phillies -115; Braves +1.5 (-210), Phillies -1.5 (+175); 7.5
  • MyBookie – Braves +100, Phillies -120; Braves +1.5 (-210), Phillies -1.5 (+175); 7.5
  • BetUS – Braves +102, Phillies -112; Braves +1.5 (-210), Phillies -1.5 (+175); 7.5
  • BetNow – Braves +105, Phillies -115; Braves +1.5 (-200), Phillies -1.5 (+170); 7.5

The best moneyline odds for the Braves are +105 at BetNow. The Phillies are at -112 at BetOnline and BetUS.

Betting on the Braves run line is best at BetNow, the only book listed with better than -210 odds.

The Phillies are best at BetOnline, which has +180 to cover two or more runs. The over/under may vary based on which side you pick, but the number is the same.

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Betting Trends

  • The Phillies are 10-4 over the last 14 meetings in Philadelphia 
  • Though the Braves are 5-2 in the last seven, regardless of location 
  • The under is 7-3 in the last ten meetings in Philadelphia 
  • Betting trends show 61% of public bets are on the Phillies’ moneyline, with 61% on the over

Atlanta’s doing the Hokey Pokey

Something switched when the calendar rolled to June. The Braves turned a sub .500 record into being ten games over and cementing itself in the playoff and divisional race.

Their offense has been on a tear, scoring 5.9 runs per game this month. Granted, the front end of the month was against Arizona, Colorado, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Washington, and the Cubs before it ramped up in the last week.

It’s bumped their offense to a top 10 rate, scoring 4.74 runs for the season, ranking ninth. Their offense is hitting .247 (11th) and have a .752 OPS (fourth). Their 1.49 home runs per game are second, and 9.51 strikeouts per contest are 29th.

Dansby Swanson is heating up with a .304 average, 14 doubles, 13 home runs, 43 RBIs, and a team-high 48 runs scored. Austin Riley is tied with him with 43 RBIs and leads the team with 18 home runs. Matt Olson has a team-best 29 doubles and ten home runs since coming from Oakland.

Their pitching has been strong, ranking 11th in allowing 4.14 runs per game. A .234 batting average against ranks eighth, and .660 OPS against ranks sixth. They limit home runs to 0.8 per game and strike out 9.74 hitters per game, both ranking first.

Philly filling the void?

The Phillies have the sixth-best offense in the league, scoring 4.81 runs per game, with a .247 batting average (12th) and .729 OPS (ninth). But that is with Harper, who now is out for the next month and then some. Who steps up in his absence?

Nicholas Castellanos is starting to hit the ball better, up to a .252 average, but the power numbers aren’t there. He has 17 doubles but only seven home runs.

Kyle Schwarber has a team-high 21 home runs but is hitting .219, though that is improving slowly. His 46 RBIs are second to Harper and the 51 runs scored are a team-high. Rhys Hoskins and Alec Bohm both have been hitting for solid power.

However, J.T. Realmuto needs to step up with 11 doubles, two triples, five home runs, and a .237 average.

As the trade deadline nears, expect the Phillies to look for an extra outfielder to help fill the void so they can keep pace in the playoff hunt.

The pitching staff has been solid, especially at the front end of the rotation with Wheeler and Aaron Nola. The staff is scoring 4.34 runs per game (16th). They allow a .239 batting average against (16th) and .690 OPS (11th).

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Predictions

  • The moneyline indicates it should be a close game, with oddsmakers heavily favoring Atlanta +1.5 at over -200. That is likely due to Harper’s injury, but as Mike Trout and the Angels have shown, it takes a whole team to win games and make the playoffs. The Phillies still have some dudes.
  • The pitching matchup certainly supports a low-run total. Though Morton has been hit around some this season. Wheeler not as much, so it depends if the Phillies bullpen is entrusted with a lead because they have not been great.
  • We’ll take Braves +105 with conviction because of the pace Atlanta is on this month. If they can chase Wheeler in five or six innings, if not sooner, it will give them a great shot as long as Morton doesn’t get hit around. Atlanta’s bullpen has been strong so an early lead to give Morton confidence is necessary.

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