Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers NFL 9-26
Rodgers Seems Back After Monday Night
Sports wagerers seem like they will love the Bovada odds of the Green Bay Packers getting +3 points at the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night. Everybody was down on Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay after their 38-3 loss to the Saints in week one but right back on the bandwagon after 4 TD passes from the MVP on Monday night. BetUS has Green Bay as +145 for Moneyline betting, but is everybody kind of overlooking the Niners here?
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Will the Real Green Bay Stand Up?
Green Bay still has many issues to work out with their defense to be consistently profitable for NFL picks, but that offense had a very nice rebound on Monday night in a 35-17 win over the Lions. It has taken the Packers about six quarters to get rolling this season, but the engine looks lubed after outscoring Detroit 21-0 in the 2nd half last week.
The offense that showed up to cover the -11.5 point spread and push the final score over the 50 in totals betting was a far cry from the Green Bay squad that had just 229 yards total vs. the Saints in the season opener.
Rodgers threw picks vs. New Orleans in week 1, but was 22/27 for 255 with 4/0 back in Lambeau on Monday night. The Packers running game still hasn’t got chugging yet, though, with just 69.5 yards/game, which is 28th in the league.
The Packers went into the half down 17-14 to Detroit last week, and the Lions’ Jared Goff finished the game with a pretty good line of 26/36 for 246 and 2 TD.
This is after Jameis Winston threw 5 TD vs. the Green Bay secondary in NFL week 1, meaning there are still some serious concerns for the Packers defense traveling to the West Coast – while making totals betting on the ‘over’ 51 looks like a solid play.
Niners Get a Game at Home
San Francisco hasn’t been overly impressive in letting Detroit creep back from a 41-17 deficit in a 41-33 final in the season opener and getting past Philadelphia just 17-11 in week 2 even though SF covered the -3 point betting odds from BetUS.
The Niners have still started off the season 2-0, and they’ve done it while traveling East of the Mississippi for early starts in both games. San Francisco finally gets a home game in week 3, and Levi Stadium will host 68,000+ fans for the first time in over 600 days – and on Sunday Night Football to boot.
The Packers’ biggest vulnerability is their defense, and although the 49ers’ offense looked good in NFL week 1 against Detroit, they were held to just 306 total yards last week vs. Philadelphia.
Jimmy Garoppolo has looked good in completing 70.9% of his passes so far, and Elijah Mitchell might be a competent backup RB for the injured Raheem Mostert as he had 104 yards on 19 carries in the win over the Lions.
Packers at 49ers Betting Pick
What makes San Francisco such a solid -3 point betting odds play on Sunday night is because they are at home and because their defense can take this game over. The Niners haven’t started the best in giving up 133.5 rush yards/game (27th) through two weeks, but the Packers can’t get going in that aspect, putting up just 69.5 per game.
Instead, it’s the pressure that Nick Bosa and the 49ers’ d-line can bring that can neutralize Rodgers. Bosa sacked Jalen Hurts twice last week, and the team got to Jared Goff three times in the opener. Even one of the best QBs of all time isn’t as accurate with a hand in his face.