Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots NFL Betting Analysis, Odds & Picks
A couple of AFC East rivals in the Buffalo Bills, and New England Patriots prepare to square off in a postseason matchup on Saturday evening.
The Patriots were upset by the Miami Dolphins in the last week of the regular season, which eliminated them from any shot at the division since the Bills earned a victory. However, they clinched a Wild Card spot, and many people around the league consider them one of the more talented Wild Card teams in the postseason. New England will certainly be a team to keep our eyes on moving forward.
Buffalo capped off their regular season with a four-game winning streak. The Bills have played inspired football as of late, and they were rewarded with an AFC East division crown which brings necessary home-field advantage. Earning home-field advantage was crucial because you never know what can happen when you have to play the Patriots in Foxborough.
Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday night at 8:15 P.M. EST. at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY.
Betting Analysis for New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills NFL
New England Patriots Betting Stats & Analysis
Do you remember the last time New England played Buffalo at Highmark Stadium?
Mac Jones threw all of three passes and completed two of those passes in a 14-10 win. Jones was limited due to inclimate weather, and the Pats opted to lean on the run game and trust their defense which ultimately paid off. With the weather expected to be in single digits on Saturday night, could we be in store for a similar attack in this matchup?
New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said that the game plan will not be drastically affected if cool temperatures are the only thing they are dealing with since the Patriots are used to playing in frigid weather in New England. But if snow ends up falling, the Patriots could utilize a run-heavy approach yet again.
The talented Patriots defense might actually be hoping for bad weather since Josh Allen labored last time that was the case against New England at home. But in the end, execution is the only thing that matters.
And speaking of execution, that was something the Patriots failed to do in last week’s 33-24 loss against the Miami Dolphins. While their defense has been solid this year, they have struggled at containing the run. New England ranks 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game.
This was evident against the Dolphins as running back Duke Johnson racked up 117 yards on 25 carries and added a touchdown. Backup running back Phillip Lindsay contributed 40 rushing yards, and even quarterback Tua Tagovailoa chipped in with 38 rushing yards.
And the rushing attack was the main ingredient in taking down the Pats, as Miami threw for just over 100 total yards.
So can the Patriots, who ranked second in limiting passing yards per game during the regular season, contain Josh Allen? Sure. It will be easier said than done, but they should be able to keep him in check despite his immense talent.
But the strong Buffalo run game could be a problem. They will need to find a way to limit the rushing attack if they don’t want a repeat of last week’s performance.
Buffalo Bills Betting Stats & Analysis
The Bills defeated the Jets 27-10 last week in a division-clinching matchup. We could take an in-depth look at that game, but it’s the Jets. The Bills were expected to win and came through.
So instead, let’s see what went right in Buffalo’s road victory over the Patriots back on December 26th.
The Bills won the game 33-21. Josh Allen had an up-and-down game, as he threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns, but he was a fairly inefficient 30-47 through the air.
But we recently discussed how Buffalo’s running game may be the key to defeating New England. Well, guess who the Bill’s leading rusher was in this victory?
Josh Allen, who tallied 64 yards on the ground. Devin Singletary added just 39 yards. However, both rushed 12 times each.
So it is conceivable that Singletary has more impact on the game with more touches. He has averaged 21.5 touches per game since Week 15 and ran 19 times for 88 yards to go along with a touchdown in last week’s win against the Jets.
So between Singletary, backup running back Zack Moss, and the scrambling ability of Josh Allen, the Bills may be able to expose New England’s weakness on the ground on Saturday.
Buffalo is first in points limited per game on defense, and they are first in total yards allowed per game.
They excel at limiting the pass and are decent against the run. The Bills will likely not face too much of a struggle trying to limit this New England offense.
As long as the Bills can find ways to get in the endzone, they should be able to come out on top. However, Bill Belichick and the Patriots are known for frustrating opposing offenses and figuring out strategies to contain them.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Trends
New England Patriots:
- New England is 10-7 ATS this year.
- The Patriots are 5-3 ATS away from home.
- They are 3-2 ATS as an underdog.
- New England finished the season with a 6-2 SU record on the road.
- Buffalo is 9-6-2 ATS this season.
- The Bills are 5-3 at Highmark Field this year.
- They are 7-5-2 ATS as a favorite.
- Buffalo completed their regular season with a 6-3 SU record at home.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Odds
The Bills are favored by four points across the board. We should be in store for a competitive football game at Highmark Stadium on Saturday night.
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How To Bet On: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills NFL – Betting lines
Rolling with the Bills at -4 may not be as popular as you would originally be led to believe. Many bettors are taking the chance on the underdog Patriots because they value the experience of head coach Bill Belichick.
But the Bills have proven they are a team worth taking seriously. Do they have some holes? Yes.
But they have an elite passing game and defensive unit to go along with a solid running attack. Buffalo certainly has what it takes to cover at home.
OBS Betting Picks for New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills NFL
Take the Buffalo Bills -4 with your betting selection.
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