Heisman Update: Resetting the Board
Last week was a bit of a nothing-burger when it comes to Heisman movements, so let’s reevaluate where the odds are leading into this season.
The ACC is *dead* when it comes to the Heisman. The Pac 12 seems pretty dead too. Georgia seems dead. Florida seems dead. So the SEC East is dead. Tamu, Arkansas Auburn are all dead. The Big Ten West is dead. Theoretically, Desmond Ridder isn’t dead if they win out and everyone else sucks, but it’d be TOUGH to convince the voting public over the guys I think *do* have a shot.
Let’s talk about some of these narratives because that’s how the Heisman is won.
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Matt Corral (+180)
Here is how Corral wins. 1. Throws his team on his back and is the best player in every game he plays, and no one else on an elite team pops. 2. They beat Bama, and he becomes the clear favorite where it’s possible even a loss doesn’t hurt him much because he would kind of be lapping the field if they won on Saturday. I’d prefer to bet on Ole Miss than on Corral this week, given the odds. If you’re love to bet on NCAAF, don’t sleep o this one!
Bryce Young (+180)
This is the guy on the best team whose stats are good; he looks good, doesn’t make a ton of mistakes, and is the 1 or 2 seed. I think the Georgia game looming could be legitimately shaky, so I think he has to impress a lot leading into that game if he wants to feel safe. I think it’s likely that we spend a lot of the year trying to find someone better than Young, but it’s hard to find the argument if he doesn’t lose based on the play around the country so far. According to BetUS, Bryce Young to win Heisman is at +180 – a pretty good deal if you ask me!
Bijan Robinson (+4000)
If Texas wins out, it’ll likely be on the back of Bijan. Bijan is an elite talent who creates explosive plays and does everything well. A Johnson injury would make him even better as he does lose snaps and TDs to him often. Texas’s offense does have the potential to be explosive after the bad game at Arkansas, and that was by far his worst game, which won’t help.
Spencer Rattler and JT Daniels
I think that the public is OUT on these two, and it’d be really tough for them at this point barring a massive turnaround. Daniels was bad in week 1 when everyone watched and beat up on bad teams in very limited time. No one wants to buy in on Daniels, and I don’t think he has many games to change that perception. I prefer Rattler over Daniels, as he should have more chances to regain votes over the course of the year.
Ohio State has had some execution issues in the red zone to start the season, but their yardage totals are elite, and their SP+ offense is in the range of other former elite teams while no one else in the country is even close relative to scale. The receivers are too spread out. I do think 2 Ohio state players have favorable narrative opportunities.
CJ Stroud (+5000)
has solid statistics and an injury to blame. If he is healthy this week and beyond and plays more consistently, the early season bumps can be written off a bit. Even then, he threw for 500 yards vs Oregon, and that’s what some voters will see in December IF he can end the year beating perceived good teams and defenses Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan, and Iowa in a month and a half. I’d much rather bet on Stroud than Rattler and Daniels right now, especially at odds.
TreVeyon Henderson (+3500)
He is averaging 10 YPC and leads the country in 40+ yard runs in 46 total carries. The Ohio State offensive line is elite, particularly in the run game and Coach Day recently said that the ideal carries for Henderson is “somewhere around 20.”
If we can write off his only loss as a game where the true freshman only got 13 touches and still scored a TD with a good YPC, then there’s definitely a world where he has elite stats on an offense surging as “THE guy,” thus capturing the narrative.
Also, the Ohio State defense isn’t going to allow them to win games 45-7; I think we might see a situation with this team where we see a 2018 Kyler/Haskins situation. They’re in a clearly elite offense that IS being asked to be elite for 60 minutes each week, which I don’t think we can say about anyone else besides Bijan, right?
Looking at the Heisman odds to see who I missed and if Sean Clifford, Jake Haener, or CJ Verdell win the Heisman, I’ll do some unspeakable things.
