QB Issues to Doom Cougars?
BYU is 5-0 and with a legitimate shot at making a trip to the College Football Playoff if they keep up their winning ways. The Cougars are up to #10 in the nation and are at home on Saturday, which is why they have to be one of the more popular NCAAF picks of the weekend as just -5.5 favorites against Boise State.
The Broncos are just 2-3 on the season, and their last two losses have come as home favorites. That being said, injuries may have BYU down to their 3rd string QB for this meeting. Bovada has Boise State at +190 in Moneyline betting, and they have even more value at +200 at BetOnline – is it worth it to pull the trigger for underdog betting in this rivalry matchup?
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Boise State to Get It Done on the Road?
This season, the Broncos are 1-1 SU on the road, but they have covered the spread for NCAAF odds in both games away from the blue turf. That includes a 36-31 loss at Central Florida (UCF) in the season opener but as +5.5 underdogs and winning 27-3 at Utah State.
Things get a little tougher on Saturday afternoon against #10 BYU. The Broncos lost this matchup 51-17 last year in what was the Cougars’ first-ever win at Boise State in six visits. The 34-point defeat was also the worst home loss for the Broncos since 1996.
Boise State comes into week six off a 41-31 loss to Nevada last week with betting odds of the Broncos -5.5 favorites. Hank Bachmeier was great, going 34/48 for 388 yards and 4 TD, his fifth straight game with at least 240 yards passing. Boise State had no run game, though, carrying the ball 32 times for 62 yards.
Of course, Boise State’s defense obviously let them down vs. Nevada, giving up 41 points, including 124 yards on just 12 carries to Wolfpack RB Toa Taua.
Allgeier Licking His Chops for this Matchup
One of the things that makes BYU one of the more appealing online betting picks of the weekend is that Boise State has no run defense. Aside from Taua’s big day for Nevada last Saturday, Oklahoma State’s Jaylen Warren went for 218 and 2 TDs in week 3.
Warren is a dark horse Heisman Trophy betting candidate for the Cowboys, but BYU has a pretty good RB, with Tyler Allgeier going for 218 yards of his own last week vs. Utah State and with 3 TDs. Allgeier ran for 123 yards and 2 TDs last year vs. Boise State, including an 86-yard run on the team’s second offensive play.
To be fair, in last year’s meeting between #9 BYU and #21 Boise State, the Broncos were down to their 3rd string QB with Bachmeier missing the game for undisclosed reasons and Jack Sears suffering a concussion. That’s the spot the Cougars could be in on Saturday, though, with Jaren Hall (undisclosed) and Baylor Romney (head) both on the injury report.
Hall is probable, however, and even if BYU is down to their 3rd, 4th, or 5th string QB, that just means a heavier dose of Allgeier – exactly what the Broncos do not want.
Boise State at BYU Pick
This line seems incredibly low, considering the damage BYU did at Boise State last season. The betting odds even opened at just -3 even though the Cougars are a top 10 team in the country.
Maybe Hall doesn’t play, and perhaps somehow Boise State does find a run defense. All that’s certain is when a line seems this easy, and it’s a major red flag.
Pick: Boise State +5.5
