Texas A&M Too Banged Up to Stay In This Game?
The Alabama Crimson Tide have a great opportunity to move to 6-0 on the year when they visit an ailing Texas A&M team on Saturday. The Crimson Tide have rolled through everybody put in front of them (except for a 31-29 win over Florida), while Texas A&M comes in on a two-game losing streak.
The public hits Alabama hard every week as part of their NCAAF picks, but both BetOnline and Bovada have held firm at the Crimson Tide as -18 point favorites. Alabama has won 8 straight in this series, which is why they are priced at -1200 in moneyline betting for this game.
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Alabama Finding More Weapons
It doesn’t seem fair that Alabama may be getting even better over the last couple of weeks, especially since they’ve gone 3-2 ATS this season, even while facing some pretty high betting lines. That’s where we’re at, though, after Brian Robinson, Jr. carried the ball 36 times for 171 yards and 4 TD vs. Mississippi.
With teams having to respect the Crimson Tide run game more, that’s just going to open things up even more for Heisman Trophy candidate Bryce Young. The freshman had two more TD passes vs. Ole Miss, and it was actually his first time not throwing for 3+ this season.
Young has 17 TD to just 2 INTs this year and is completing 73% of his passes in 2021. The Aggies do have a top 25 defense vs. the pass, though, giving up just 177.2 yards per game through the air. That being said, Mississippi State QB Will Rogers just threw for 408 yards and 3 TDs vs. Texas A&M last Saturday.
Texas A&M Very Banged Up
It takes your best day to beat Alabama, and that’s hard to do even when healthy. Texas A&M is far from healthy coming into Week 6, starting with QB Haynes King who has been out since Week 2 with an ankle injury suffered against Colorado.
Others banged up for the Aggies include CBs Myles Jones and Brian George, who were hurt against Arkansas and have been shut down for the year. Caleb Chapman and Chase Lane combined for 5 TD last season, but they’re both battling injuries as well.
The only thing Jimbo Fisher can do is focus on the players he does have available to try and help the Aggies get the win or, at the very least, cover the +18 betting line. Zach Calzada has filled in for King at QB, but is completing just 53% of his passes and has only one game with over 200 yards passing on the year.
What Fisher should do on Saturday is feed Isaiah Spiller more. This is a guy who has had 1100+ scrimmage yards and 19 total TDs the last two seasons, but he can only get 16 carries last week against Mississippi State – and he still had 100 yards. Spiller has averaged over six ypc in four of five games this season but still has a high of 17 carries on the year.
Alabama at Texas A&M Pick
It’s a tough spot for Texas A&M to be in not having a couple of their better CBs available for a meeting with Alabama’s high-powered offense. The Aggies usually pride themselves on their defense but have allowed 400+ yards passing to Mississippi State and 200+ rushing to Arkansas.
Alabama might have found a workhorse back in Robinson, Jr., which is only going to open up the playbook for QB Bryce Young.
Pick: Alabama -18
