Two top-ten UFC welterweights are going to meet in the octagon this weekend for another UFC Fight Night event. Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson looks to give the live crowd of Orlando’s Amway Center a great show against Kevin Holland on December 3rd.
A proper UFC Fight Night betting preview is needed to make a reasonable Thompson vs Holland prediction going into the fights this Saturday.
UFC: Thompson vs Holland Betting Trends
- Stephen Thompson has lost his last two fights via decision when he was the betting favorite. If the odds for this one hold up, it will be the first fight as an underdog for Thompson since 2016.
- Holland has been the type of guy to show up for any fight he can. He lost his last fight as a massive underdog while taking a 180lb catchweight fight on one-day notice. He has two second-round finishes in the fights before that, where he was the favorite.
- In 2022, underdogs from +110 to +150 are currently winning at an above 50% rate.
- Six out of seven main events on UFC Fight Night events (numberless events) have been finished before the judges’ scorecards are read. The only exception is the Kattar vs Emmett event.
How to Bet on Thompson vs Holland
The betting lines for this UFC main event are very close, with Holland being the narrow betting favorite at -160. This is an interesting place for Thompson to be as the world-class striker he is.
Thompson’s downfall in the UFC has been against wrestlers, so he has to be excited to fight a guy like Holland this weekend.
The over/under is set at 4.5 rounds for this bout, with the under going at -175. Oddsmakers think this fight is going to be finished before the judges get involved, even though Thompson hasn’t been finished since 2019.
MMA is the most unpredictable sport, but you can use UFC stats and the different styles to make educated picks.
According to UFC stats, the striking statistics are basically identical between these two. Holland averages 3.85 strikes landed per minute, while Thompson averages 3.90.
They also both average below 3.00 strikes absorbed per minute, with a 55% and 56% striking defense to compare.
The interesting stat is Thompson averages almost 15 minutes of fight time in his career at 14:34. Holland only averages 10:40 fight time.
Usually, the betting advice would be to never get tricked into betting underdogs in the UFC because of that juicy (+) with the odds, but if it is between +100 and +150, the chances actually double to win so far in 2022.
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Thompson vs Holland Betting Picks
When making a Thompson vs Holland prediction, we need to look at a lot of film and compare the two unique styles.
Usually, the rule is never to bet against Thompson when he is up against a striker. But this is an interesting matchup against a guy who is bigger, faster, and nine years younger than him. Pretty much the only time Thompson has ever lost to a striker has been when he got KO’d by Anthony Pettis.
The comparison between Pettis and Holland is the unpredictable style. Thompson got KO’d in that fight from a superman punch off the cage. There will definitely be a lot of unorthodox techniques coming from Holland on Saturday night.
Even though the physical advantage goes to Holland, Thompson to win is the play to make here. He is going to surprise a lot of people and prove that he belongs at the top of the welterweight division.
A big factor that not many people are talking about is the main event experience that Thompson has. He has been in five-round wars with Tyron Woodley in Woodley’s prime. Thompson has not been as active as Holland, but he has given his body time to heal and still has that experience in 25-minute fights.
We know that Wonderboy Thompson has been training hard and working to get better. The only thing we know about Holland is that he wanted to retire at the end of September after his last fight.
Top Sportsbooks Odds
- Bovada: Kevin Holland -150
- MyBookie: Kevin Holland -120
- BetUS: Kevin Holland -160
- DraftKings: Kevin Holland -165
- FanDuel: Kevin Holland -150
- BetOnline: Kevin Holland -160
Bonus! Other Fights Worth Placing a Bet On
After you place your Thompson vs Holland prediction, make sure to check out the other fights on the card, as this is one of the most stacked Fight Night cards of 2022! Some other big UFC fights to bet on are:
Rafael Dos Anjos (-550) vs Bryan Barberena (+420) – This fight is going to be fireworks when the future UFC Hall of Famer takes on an upcoming powerhouse in Barberena, fresh off a fight-of-the-night win over Robbie Lawler.
Sergey Pavlovich (-200) vs Tai Tuivasa (+170) – Tuivasa is off a great performance against the world #1 in France, and he is an underdog? Take a big look at this one, where there will surely be a knockout.
Michael Johnson (+245) vs Marc Diakiese (-285) – This is a sleeper fight on the prelims in Orlando. Michael Johnson has revived his career and has looked way too good lately to be a +245 underdog.
On top of these three, there are plenty of great fights set to take place at the Amway Center on December 3rd.
The closest fight is between Amanda Ribas (-120) and Tracy Cortez (EVEN) in a women’s flyweight bout. The biggest underdog of the night will be Darren Elkins at +360 in his featherweight bout against the dangerous Jonathan Pearce.
