UFC Fight Night is back this weekend in the APEX with a women’s strawweight Top 5 contender bout headlining after the original main event got scrapped. 

• Marina Rodriguez (16-1-2) will be taking on Amanda Lemos (12-2-1) in a big fight for a division that seems wide open right now.

• The title fight is in 2 weeks, with Carla Esparza defending her belt against Weili Zhang in New York. The winner of this one can really plead their case on being next in line for a title shot. 

• Rodriguez is on a 4-fight winning streak, and this is especially her chance to earn that shot. 

Marina Rodriguez vs Amanda Lemos: Match Info and Odds

-Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada

-Date: November 5, 2022

-Time: Main card starts at 7 PM ET

-TV: ESPN+

BetOnline has Rodriguez as the betting favorite with odds of -221 as of right now. That has trended up for her, since the opening lines only had Rodriguez at -150. 

Lemos is the underdog at +186, which is a lot of value for someone as dangerous as this Brazilian, with all that power in her hands. The over/under is set at 4.5 rounds for this matchup as well at BetOnline.  

Marina Rodriguez vs Amanda Lemos: Betting Previews

In 2022, underdogs from +100 to +150 are over .500 winning percentage. 

The strawweight division, since 2020, has been the hardest division in the UFC to find any betting trend, from any angle you look at it. The favorite has won at around 65%, but that still equates to a marginal loss in units.

Betting on Marina Rodriguez

People are finally starting to take notice of Marina Rodriguez and her resume inside the UFC. Her skills speak for themself, but you can not ignore the fact she has four straight wins over the likes of Amanda Ribas, Michelle Waterson-Gomez, Mackenzie Dern, and Xiaonan Yan. Those are all women inside the top 10 of the division. 

She has been the gatekeeper to title contention for the last year while the belt has been hogged by the rematch of Namajunas and Weili, as well as the last fight in the summer where Esparza took it from Namajunas. Throughout all this, Rodriguez has stayed active and taken out all the rest of the rising contenders. 

Rodriguez’s only loss in the UFC has been to current champ Carla Esparza back in the summer of 2020. She has gotten her feet back under her throughout the pandemic and seems to keep getting better. At 35, this is her perfect moment to fight for a title, and this will be the biggest fight of her career so far.

The slick striking and power of Rodriguez, mixed with some very solid grappling, makes her potentially the most challenging fight for anyone in the division. She is on a mission for gold, and it is tough to imagine her being stopped by anything right now.

Betting on Amanda Lemos

As the underdog in this fight, the value of Lemos is very high and interesting. She might be the pound-for-pound most brutal woman the UFC has while only standing at 5’4 and weighing in at 115 lbs. The power she possesses is rare in this light of a weight class, and it is always fun to watch.

Twelve out of her 15 professional fights have ended before the scorecards could come into play. This tells you that she brings the fight and throws herself into the fire of any opponent she goes up against. When she struggles, it is when she seems to be holding back and not letting her hands go.

Lemos has two submission victories in the UFC, and both looked so vicious that it is surprising she doesn’t go for submissions more often. Her guillotine over Michelle Waterson-Gomez in her last bout was very impressive, and the squeeze she got on her was very scary for anyone looking to be on the ground with her in the future.

The advantage that Lemos will have over Rodriguez is her power, both on the feet and on the ground. If Lemos can get her hands on Rodriguez, I believe it will show, and Rodriguez will not want to engage in those positions ever again over the rest of the five rounds.

Marina Rodriguez vs Amanda Lemos: Picks and Predictions

The Pick

With so much value on Lemos, it is tough not to put money on her. But I don’t think the moneyline is where you should do it. Rodriguez has many more paths to victory and is the all-around better fighter.

The experience and skill of Rodriguez will be too much for Lemos to earn a victory over 25 minutes. If this fight goes the distance, Rodriguez will be the pick for the moneyline, even with the lack of value in just a single bet.

Over/Under Analysis

The over/under is interesting because it is all the way at 4.5 rounds at BetOnline. It is basically a coin flip in odds too, so this is a bet you typically stay away from and just look for other ways to win. 

Lemos has the chance to clip Rodriguez at any moment in the early rounds and end the fight, and honestly, Rodriguez has the ability to really put on a master class and finish the fight in the 3rd or just coast to a finish. 

Best Bet

After breaking down the two styles of these women and reviewing all the trends and possibilities of this fight, the best bet is going to involve Marina Rodriguez winning. 

The value isn’t very good with Rodriguez and the moneyline. If you don’t want to be safe and want to get creative, something to make a play on is Rodriguez to reach the finish inside the distance. 

BetOnline has the prop bet for Rodriguez to finish Lemos at +210. This is a significant value for a dangerous fighter like Rodriguez to make a statement to challenge for a title next. I think she will go out there willing to attack and go for a finish to make sure she gets that title shot early next year.

That Brazil card is looking very interesting for Rodriguez to go back home and fight for her first championship. 

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