After the historic event that was UFC 285, MMA fans are being spoiled with another great fight card on the following Saturday. Petr Yan is set to headline UFC Fight Night 221 against fellow top bantamweight Merab Dvalishvili.

This Fight Night in Las Vegas will be hosted at The Theater at Virgin Hotels, a new venue for UFC fight nights outside of the APEX. The live crowd will be absolutely electric with all the great scraps that are set to take place this weekend. Let’s dive deep into the betting analysis and prediction of this main event fight and others on the card.

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  • Petr Yan is 2-3 in his last 5 UFC fights.
  • Merab Dvalishvili is currently on an 8-fight winning streak in the UFC octagon. 
  • Yan is the betting favorite this weekend, which will be the 14th straight fight that he closes as the favorite. 
  • This will be the first time in Dvalishvili’s career that he will be the underdog leading up to a fight.  
  • Yan has eight finishes in his professional career, his last coming against Jose Aldo for the bantamweight title in 2020. 
  • Dvalishvili has only four finishes in his professional career. He has one finish in the UFC and has gotten finished once in the octagon as well.

How To Bet on Yan vs Dvalishvili

When you are preparing to place bets on UFC fights on any particular weekend, you need to make sure to do the proper research. When breaking this matchup down, the casual fan might see that Yan has lost 3 of his last five fights. 

When you look at Yan’s recent fight history, you need to consider that he has fought literally only the champion and the top 5 fighters in the world. Out of all three losses, one was a DQ, and the other two were very narrow decisions.

One of the most important analytics you can work off of for this main event is the total finishes for both men. These guys seem to both be on a trend of going to decisions. This fight is a 5-round main event, so it slightly changes that trend. 

When you aren’t sure if there is a moneyline you want to take, then take the time to dive into sportsbook betting lines and see if there are any prop bets that make the most sense to make a play on for the best value. 

MMA fights are so tough to predict because you have no idea what will happen once the octagon door locks. Yan is the -260 betting favorite as you read this and is in that position for a reason.

In terms of style, both of these men like to keep pressure on their opponent and ultimately look to break them within the 15 minutes of a fight. Since this fight is five rounds, Yan has shown in the past that he starts these fights pretty slowly, potentially to conserve energy for the later rounds. 

It will also be interesting to see if Dvalishvili comes out with the same crazy, high-intensity pressure that he has brought in his last fights. Will he be able to keep that up for 25 minutes?

Yan vs Dvalishvili Betting Picks

After breaking down both fighters’ styles and what they can bring to the table inside the cage, this is a difficult fight to give a flat-out prediction for. 

If we are talking about best picks, it has to revolve around Petr Yan being successful on Saturday night. You can’t forget that Yan is a couple of exchanges away from probably being the world champion right now and continuing his reign. He is easily in the top 3 for the best complete skillset in the bantamweight division. 

Yan has shown that he is a very sound wrestler with great takedown defense and with a bundle of slick takedowns in his own arsenal. He has a massive striking advantage, so you can basically count on every second this fight is standing up that Yan is winning. 

Dvalishvili has the advantage of training with Aljo Sterling, who has beaten Yan twice in the last couple of years. Dvalishvili will be ready with a solid game plan and a good understanding of how Yan will react in particular positions. 

Even with the advantages of Dvalishvili, it would be a mistake to bet against Petr Yan. He is way too good to lose as much as he has, and I think he will make a statement on Saturday night. He doesn’t want the judges to be involved anymore, so expect Yan to come out with bad intentions this weekend in front of a rowdy Vegas crowd. 

Our best bet for this main event bout is Petr Yan winning by decision at +120. That has tons of value, but if you want to keep it safe, the Yan ML is plenty valuable to add to your parlay. 

Top Sportsbooks Odds 

BetOnline: Yan -260

Bovada: Yan -265

BetUS: Yan -260

DraftKings: Yan -250

Betway: Yan -250

Pinnacle: Yan -243

Bonus! Other Fights Worth Placing a Bet On

UFC Light Heavyweights Nikita Krylov (-166) vs Ryan Spann (+143)

  • In the feature bout slot on the main card, we have two great athletes clashing at 205 pounds. With the division being held by new talent and fresh faces, this fight is massive for the future of contenders in the division. Look for Spann to come up with a big upset KO over the experienced Krylov. Spann is a special athlete with tons of power.

UFC Bantamweights Mario Bautista (-900) vs Guido Canneti (+650)

  • This isn’t really a fight that is nice to bet on, but Mario Bautista is one of the most exciting upcoming talents in the UFC that not many people know about. He will be on the main cards and in the top 15 in no time, so enjoy him putting on a show against lesser talent. This is a lock moneyline for any parlay and Bautista winning inside the distance at -350.
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