The UFC is back with a historic event this weekend at UFC 285. Jon “Bones” Jones, arguably the greatest to ever put on the 4-ounce gloves, makes his long-awaited return to the octagon to fight for the vacant UFC heavyweight title. He will be meeting the great Ciryl Gane this weekend in Las Vegas.
Let’s take a look at this bout and see what the best bets are for you heading into this weekend’s slate of picks. UFC 285 is also stacked from top to bottom, with great fights to set the table for this historic main event.
UFC: Jones vs Gane Betting Trends
- Jon Jones has won 18 fights in a row in the UFC octagon.
- Ciryl Gane went 1-1 in 2022, with the only loss of his career coming to Francis Ngannou for the heavyweight belt in January of last year.
- Jones is the betting favorite for this bout. He hasn’t been an underdog since 2009 when he fought the late great Stephan Bonnar.
- Gane opened as the favorite over Jones when this fight got announced; now, he is an underdog for the first time in his career.
- Jones has 16 total finishes in his MMA career; 10 KOs and six submissions.
- Gane has eight career finishes, 5 being KOs and three submissions.
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How To Bet on Jones vs Gane
If you are new to betting on the UFC, what an incredible weekend to start. UFC 285 is full of crazy fights and some of the best talent in the world from top to bottom. Jon Jones is making his comeback and fighting the new age of a heavyweight fighter.
Jones is the -165 betting favorite over the +135 Gane. When this fight was announced, Jones opened as an underdog for the first time since 2009. That is crazy to think about, but now as fight week carries on, he is rightfully the favorite.
With odds this closely matched, especially when we are seeing a guy compete in the octagon for the first time in more than three years, a UFC fight can be tough to bet on. There are so many different factors that go into a fight and how it will play out.
The unknowns for this main event bout are mostly surrounding Jones and his move to heavyweight. At 35 years old, you can also doubt his durability, to go along with the weight gain and the lack of activity. But if there has been a fighter that you don’t worry about, it is probably Jon Jones.
Make sure you do all the research possible if you want to put your hard-earned money on this main event fight. Reading analyses like this will be a great opportunity for you to learn about the sport and, more specifically, this fight coming this weekend.
Some interesting betting lines besides the money lines for this bout are: the over/under set at 4.5 rounds, Jones wins inside the distance at +235, and Gane winning a decision at +280. You don’t see too many heavyweight fights basically being predicted to go the distance by oddsmakers. Also, if Gane wins, it is probably going to be via decision, and that is a ton of value for that pick.
Jones vs Gane Betting Picks
When we are trying to make a pick for this fight, the easy part is the moneyline is super close. You don’t have to try to get too cute and look for these crazy plus-odds in the prop bets section of your sportsbook. The moneyline has plenty of value for both fighters.
Jones being at these odds would be a sports betting sin if we didn’t hammer his moneyline. Because of his issues outside of the octagon, people tend to forget that Jones is the GOAT of MMA, and it really shouldn’t even be a close debate.
Just to quickly back that statement up, Jones has dominated just about everyone that was in the best division the UFC had to offer in the 2010s. Basically, everyone he beat was a highly decorated legend, former World Champion, or went on to be World Champion in another big organization. Most of them are even debatable UFC Hall of Famers.
Jones counts former Champions and UFC Hall of Famers Rashad Evans and Daniel Cormier among his victims, while his first fight with Alexander Gustafsson from UFC 165 was inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame in 2021.
Gane is going to be an interesting test for Jones. He is going to be able to move a lot around the cage and will surely work to keep leg kicks and front kicks in his game plan. He is going to try and see if Jones’ legs can take big kicks from a heavyweight and still support his new heavyweight body.
But Jones is such a creative genius in the octagon, and he will honestly probably do something in there that we have never seen. He has a newfound fear that comes with moving up to heavyweight, and he has been very focused. A focused and disciplined Jon Jones might be something no one has ever seen before.
It might be even scarier than the 23-year-old who butchered Shogun Rua and finished him to become the Youngest UFC champion in history.
The pick of the weekend has to be Jon Jones’ moneyline at -165. Plenty of value, and it’s almost laughable to get the GOAT at those odds against a guy with 12 professional fights. Don’t overthink this.
Top Sportsbooks Odds
BetOnline: Jones -161
Bovada: Jones -165
BetUS: Jones -165
DraftKings: Jones -155
Betway: Jones -167
Pinnacle: Jones -161
Bonus! Other Fights Worth Placing a Bet On
UFC women’s flyweight title: Valentina Shevchenko (-625) vs Alexa Grasso (+450)
- You can’t miss the great Valentina Shevchenko when she fights. She will bring any MMA purist delight when she steps into the octagon. Her beautiful martial arts skills and fighting ability almost look like a perfect performance every time. She is coming off of a close fight, and this is probably the lock of the night.
UFC lightweight bout: Jalin Turner (+180) vs Mateusz Gamrot (-210)
- With Dan Hooker being injured and out of this fight with Turner, the UFC replaced Hooker perfectly with another savage in Gamrot. This is the sleeper fight of the night and will be awesome to watch. Will it be the underdog Turner with his massive size and power, or the hungry Polish killer coming off a tough loss to the #1 contender?
UFC middleweight bout: Bo Nickal (-2000) vs Jamie Pickett (-1000)
- Well, these odds are clearly ridiculous, and Nickal should have a dominating performance. They think he is the future golden goose for the UFC, and this is his long-awaited UFC debut, where he will be put on the main card to fight a 12-7 Jamie Pickett. Almost worth betting on Pickett at +1000 because there should never be a UFC fight with those odds.
UFC middleweight bout: Derek Brunson (+185) vs Dricus Du Plessis (-220)
- After his recent run to the title got cut short with a loss, it’s going to be interesting to see Brunson come back at the end of his career here and see how he competes against a young, hungry killer in Du Plessis.
