Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira: Betting Analysis and Prediction

In one of the biggest matches in UFC history, Adesanya is put to the test as one of the few men to beat him steps into his playground.

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The Best Bets for Saturday 11-12

UFC 281 is another massive pay-per-view event put on by the UFC, taking place at Madison Square Garden in New York City on November 12th. With a stacked card from top to bottom, the headliner bout is a middleweight title fight between Israel Adesanya (23-1) and Alex Pereira (6-1). 

With a fast track to the top by the UFC, Pereira looks to beat Adesanya for a third time over two different sports to take the middleweight belt. Two of the best strikers that the UFC has to offer going at it in the world’s most famous arena.

With Pereira only being in the UFC for a little over a year, there aren’t many trends to find in his history. Adesanya is going to be the slightest favorite he has been since his first title fight against Robert Whittaker back in 2019. 

Also, in 2022, the underdog of more than +150 is well below 50% in winning their bouts. The main card favorites are winning at a 75% clip as well. 

Pereira has beaten Adesanya in both of their prior meetings in the sport of kickboxing.

Adesanya is currently 23-0 professionally in the middleweight division. His last 4 fights have gone to the judges’ scorecards.

Betting Odds

Israel Adesanya is the betting favorite with odds at -180 leading up to fight night this weekend. Pereira is the underdog at +160. These are interesting odds with the narrative going around that Pereira is going to be Adesanya’s kryptonite.

The over/under 4.5 rounds has plus odds for the under in a fight where both men have shown the ability to finish their opponents with ease. One more betting line to look at is Adesanya winning by decision, which has plus odds at +115. 

Adesanya plays the game of hitting and not getting hit very well. He lands 3.93 strikes per minute, while only absorbing 2.67 strikes per minute over his UFC career. Pereira, with his small sample size, lands over 6 strikes per minute and absorbs 3.36. 

Best Betting Odds to Bet Online

Currently FanDuel has the most value for Adesanya, with the moneyline sitting at -164 at the start of fight week. The most value for Pereira is at Cloudbet, with odds at +169. This is a very close fight, like oddsmakers predict.

As fight week goes on, all the major sportsbooks will have some great prop bets with high value for both fighters. Sportbet has all alternate over/under lines available early, along with the method of victory props already up. 

How To Bet On: Adesanya vs Pereira Betting lines

While breaking down this matchup, there are a lot of factors that come into play. Since this is a different sport than kickboxing, you need to take their history lightly. After watching both fights back, it can be argued that Adesanya won the first match, and he was dominating the second until the great equalizer landed on his chin in the third round. 

Pereira, with 4-ounce gloves on, is probably the most dangerous man in the UFC outside of Ngannou. He has the reach and striking ability to land clean on Adesanya, and he will surely test the durability of the current champion. 

As what was stated before, Adesanya is in the hit-and-not-be-hit business. He is going to use his world-class movement around the octagon to prevent himself from being in vulnerable positions where he could get touched cleanly by Pereira. 

A motivated and angry Adesanya is a scary fight for anyone, even the man that has tasted victory over him twice already. Rewatch the first two fights yourself on YouTube and come back to this breakdown. Adesanya is the better fighter, but Pereira has that great equalizer in his hands.

OBS Betting Picks for Adesanya vs. Pereira

With the experience and the pure skill that Adesanya brings to the table, it would be silly to not ride with him. He is the champion for a reason and is the best in the world. 

Make a play on Adesanya and even look for a prop bet with him winning via decision for more value in your pick if you’re feeling lucky. 

Bonus! Other Fights Worth Placing a Bet on

UFC 281:

  • Carla Esparza +285
  • Zhang Weili -345

Pick: Zhang Weili -345 

This is the biggest lock of a title fight of the year. It is easy to see how much better and explosive Weili is compared to Esparza. Not taking anything away from the current champ, but the belt is going to be back in Weili’s hands. 

UFC 281:

  • Carlos Ulberg -117
  • Nicolae Negumereani -103

Pick: Carlos Ulberg -117

This is a great pick to make for the opening fight of the night this weekend. Ulberg is a very talented prospect coming from City Kickboxing with the rest of the team this weekend, soaking up all the energy from the Adesanya title fight preparation. 

UFC 281:

  • Erin Blanchfield -400
  • Molly McCann +300

Pick: Molly McCann +300

We saw Sean O’Malley win with similar odds at UFC 280 when people said the hype train was going to come to an end. At this point in her career, you have to ride the momentum McCann has and bet with these big underdog odds. She can bring this 23-year-old into deep water.


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