Imagine if, five years ago, someone told you to circle August 05, 2023, on the boxing schedule because YouTuber Jake Paul was going to fight UFC superstar Nate Diaz. This is the crazy current state of boxing, and many fans are just fine with it. The magnitude of this event has been shown for weeks now, with great content leading up to Saturday night. Now, it’s time to break down how this fight could play out, and check out the Paul vs. Diaz odds to see what pick you should make. 

Will the young former Disney Channel star be able to beat future UFC Hall of Famer in a fistfight? Even though that seems impossible, this bout being inside the boxing rule set favors Jake Paul a ton. We are in for an exciting bout! Get prepared with our Paul vs Diaz Odds.

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  • Jake Paul is 4-1 in his last five appearances in the ring.
  • Nate Diaz is making his professional boxing debut but is 2-3 in his last five UFC appearances. 
  • Paul has been the betting favorite in every single boxing match he has been in.
  • Diaz has been the underdog in his last ten bouts in the UFC, an incredible stat. 
  • Paul has four KOs in his professional boxing career. (seven fights)
  • Diaz has five TKOs in his professional mixed martial arts career. (34 fights)

How to Bet on Paul vs. Diaz

If you are planning on betting on this boxing bout, make sure to take the time to look at all the available betting lines in the sportsbook you bet at. Along with looking at the odds, read opinions like this one and look at past fight footage to have your own thoughts about the bout too.

Jake Paul is coming in as the massive betting favorite, with boxing odds at -550. Diaz will be closing at around +350 underdog odds. The over/under is set at 7.5 rounds for this 10-round fight set to take place at 185 lbs. 

Technically, Paul has faster hands and more power behind his punches, but he has shown he has a lot to improve on since his last appearance against Tommy Fury. If you are a boxing fan, don’t expect to see pretty boxing compared to what we saw last week, with Inoue and Crawford putting on beautiful performances.

Paul will be leaning down with his head almost at Diaz’s belt line almost every time they engage unless he has broken that tendency in just six months. Just by the lack of distance management from Paul, there will be a danger of clashing heads a lot with the orthodox vs. southpaw matchup.

Diaz’s biggest weapon is his cardio and his constant pressure. It’s hard to imagine anybody Paul has sparred with would be able to imitate the weird style of Diaz. This will be a huge test for Paul’s cardio.

Paul vs. Diaz Betting Picks

After breaking down this fight in a technical and analytical way and looking at the betting odds, we have an official Paul vs. Diaz betting prediction. Let’s go with the underdog and say Diaz is going to get his hand raised on Saturday night.

At first glance of this matchup, the boxing pick was clearly on Paul’s side. The younger fighter’s speed and power proved too much for the veteran. But the more time being spent watching both of these guys fight shows how novice Paul really is.

Paul is a great athlete and has turned into a very solid boxer, but the experience of Diaz and the pace he will fight at will be very tough for Paul to get past. A late-fight TKO from exhaustion and punches is a distinct possibility.

Nate Diaz’s Scar Tissue Could End the Fight

Diaz’s scar tissue around his eyes is so severe that cuts could end the fight. The fight finishing inside the distance at -235 is a very solid bet to make. Paul may not knock out Diaz, but cuts could force a doctor’s stoppage.

The reason for this pick in Diaz’s favor is honestly the experience and the ability to win a fight. Paul has never been in a real dogfight. His toughest tests have been against a mediocre professional boxer in Tommy Fury and Anderson Silva, who is pushing 50 years old. 

Diaz is going to be in the ring to win and not be okay with letting Paul off the hook at all. You can expect some showmanship, but Diaz is going to be all business in this new area of combat he hasn’t really experienced before. Hopefully, there will be a quick guillotine locked up and some pressure applied to show that this wouldn’t even be a fight outside of the ring.

Top Sportsbooks Odds 

BetOnline: Diaz +300

Bovada: Diaz +300

MyBookie: Diaz +280

BetUs: Diaz +300

BetNow: Diaz +350

Bonus! Other Fights Worth Placing a Bet On

Women’s featherweight title fight: Amanda Serrano (-1600) vs. Heather Hardy (+850)

This is the co-main event on the Paul vs. Diaz card. Serrano is arguably the #1 pound-for-pound women’s fighter on the planet and is looking to dominate Heather Hardy once again in the rematch of their first meeting in 2019.

The odds are very tough to bet on, but you should expect a potential shutout in a unanimous decision win for Serrano.

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