One of the biggest fights on the 2023 boxing schedule is coming up this weekend when Jermell Charlo goes up two weight classes to challenge Saul “Canelo” Alvarez for his undisputed super middleweight title in Las Vegas.
Both fighters are on the pound-for-pound lists and will surely put on a legendary show for fans around the world. Let’s take a closer look at this bout from multiple angles and come up with the best boxing prediction for the weekend.
Before making the Alvarez vs. Charlo best picks, we have to look at this matchup analytically, watch the tape of both men’s past performances, and scan the betting lines for the best bet to make.
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Alvarez vs. Charlo Betting Trends
- Canelo Alvarez is 4-1 in his last five appearances in the ring.
- Jermell Charlo. is 4-0-1 in his last five bouts.
- Alvarez has been the betting favorite in 13 out of his last 15 professional bouts; the only two underdog odds have been against Gennadiy Golovkin.
- Charlo is the betting underdog for the first time in his career, according to Boxing at BetUS.
- Alvarez has 39 KOs out of his 59 professional boxing victories.
- Charlo has 19 KOs out of his 35 professional boxing victories.
How to Bet on Alvarez vs. Charlo
Betting on this superfight is a lot more difficult than the boxing odds might suggest. Canelo Alvarez is coming in as a sizeable betting favorite, but Jermell Charlo is not a challenger to scoff at.
Charlo is the current undisputed light middleweight champion and ranked #10 in the pound-for-pound list by a reputable boxing news outlet, The Ring magazine.
Charlo is going to be the better natural athlete. He is a few inches taller and has a slightly longer reach than Canelo. An interesting way to view this fight is that Alvarez will be leaning on his boxing skill, and Charlo will be leaning on his athleticism when the fight gets tough.
When betting on a fight like this, it’s hard not to get persuaded by all the narratives in the boxing media. When you bet on boxing, you should always take time to learn as much as you can about the fight coming up and what both athletes bring to the table.
Key Factors for Alvarez vs. Charlo Picks
Both Alvarez and Charlo are 33 years old, and they have their own journeys to greatness behind them. Alvarez has a lot more experience, so people think he might be the more weathered fighter–but that’s not a justifiable reason to count him out.
The styles of both are interesting. Alvarez is a legendary counterpuncher and has an elite ability to land power shots to the body. He also uses his movement to cut off the ring from his opponents and set traps for them to fall in.
Charlo brings a dynamic style to the ring. He uses his quickness to overpower his opponents with his hand speed and ability to move around the ring in unorthodox ways. He has gotten better over the years at becoming a solid boxer going backward as well, but it’s clear that isn’t necessarily going to be his game plan.
When making your Alvarez vs. Charlo Best Picks, expect him to try to enforce his will and hunt down Alvarez as the rounds go on.
Top Sportsbooks Odds
BetOnline: Alvarez -400
Bovada: Alvarez -400
MyBookie: Alvarez -416
BetUS: Alvarez -450
BetNow: Alvarez -400
Alvarez vs. Charlo Betting Picks
Based on the analysis of this matchup and after breaking down what both of these fighters bring to the table, it’s tough to make Alvarez vs. Charlo Best Picks against Canelo Alvarez. He’s the biggest prizefighter in the entire world right now, and that’s for a reason.
Even with the narrative about Alvarez being past his prime, his fight IQ, footwork, timing, accuracy, and power are second to none. He has the skill set to grind out a win against anybody in the world right now, and you can’t confidently pick a guy from two weight classes below to be able to solve the problem.
His only blemish recently on his record has been against a bigger man in Dmitry Bivol, so it seems like you need to bring a physical advantage into the ring if you want to dethrone Alvarez.
When imagining how this fight will go, it’s easy to predict that Charlo is going to try to steal as many rounds as possible early on, and he will have confidence that he can keep a higher pace than Canelo as the later rounds come and go.
Slowing Down the Challenger
Canelo is going to be able to weather the storm early while establishing his jab and land some vicious counters to keep the offensive attack from Charlo at bay. As the rounds go on, Canelo is just going to be too much–cutting off the ring and landing on the body of Charlo, which will start to slow the challenger down.
To be honest, a pick for this fight to go to a DRAW is a very intelligent pick. The moneyline for Canelo Alvarez is not even enough to win some real money on, so a longshot pick for this fight to be a 6-6 draw is very reasonable.
If you want an outright winner bet, Canelo Alvarez via decision at around -130 is the bet to make. It will be a tough, gritty fight that Alvarez is going to really have to dig deep to win. He will probably have to take four out of the last six rounds to win it on the scorecards.
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