Odds, Picks and Predictions
The 2022 French Grand Prix will take place over the weekend of July 22nd, with the actual race being held on July 24th. This race is an important one as Verstappen holds the championship lead by 38 points.
Another exciting part of this French Grand Prix is that, due to newer FIA regulations, teams have to allow rookie drivers and reserve drivers a chance to practice each year.
This means that for FP1 of the French Grand Prix, Lewis Hamilton will be replaced by Mercedes’ reserve and Formula E driver, Nyck De Vries. Toto Wolff, team principal for Mercedes, said of the requirements, “Nyck is replacing Lewis in first practice this weekend, as part of the allocated sessions for young drivers this year. So, we’re looking forward to seeing how he gets on.”
It will certainly be a great race, so let’s get into some of the details of the race before I give you my 2022 French Grand Prix betting picks.
Formula One French Grand Prix Information
Location: Circuit Paul Ricard, Le Castellet, France
Date: July 24th, 2022
Time: 9 am EST
TV: F1 TV
Formula One French GP Outright Betting Odds
Max Verstappen +120
Charles Leclerc +160
Lewis Hamilton +900
Sergio Perez +1400
George Russell +1400
Carlos Sainz +2000
Lando Norris +15000
Fernando Alonso +17500
Esteban Ocon +20000
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Red Bull and Ferrari are battling it out
For the past ten years, Mercedes has been a powerhouse in Formula 1. They won eight straight championships, and even last year, when Verstappen won the individual championship, Mercedes secured their team championship well before the final race. Now, for the first time in 10 years, Mercedes is not competing for the constructors’ championship.
Currently, the only two teams fighting for that honor are Red Bull and Ferrari, both of which have not won a Constructor’s Championship in at least eight years.
Red Bull currently sits 56 points ahead of Ferrari and are pushing to take the trophy for themselves. This race will have tremendous implications on both championships as we are just past halfway through the season.
Right now, Red Bull is a -300 favorite to win the constructors championship on BetOnline, while Ferrari returns as a +200 underdog.
Betting Trends in Formula One
- Bet on Leclerc or Verstappen to win: out of the 11 races so far this year, nine of them have been won by Charles Leclerc or Max Verstappen. It doesn’t make sense to throw money on drivers who aren’t winning, so be smart and bet on one of these two! (Verstappen has won six races this season, Leclerc three)
- George Russell top six finish: George Russell has finished 10 of the 11 races this year, his only DNF coming from the brutal accident at the British Grand Prix (Russell was pushed/forced into Zhou, causing the accident.) All of those race finishes have been in the top five. Every. Single. One. Russell, apart from this crash, is consistent and focused, not to mention a great driver. I fully expect Russell to finish in the top five again here this weekend.
- Lando Norris Top Ten: Lando has had a lackluster season due to performance issues in the Mclaren, but he still manages points in almost every race. Norris has points in 8 of the 11 races, including one DNF. I believe Lando will continue grinding and finish in the top ten of the French Grand Prix.
Verstappen and Red Bull Strive to Survive
Team Principal Christian Horner and the rest of Red Bull are in a unique situation for them; they sit atop both championships with a fair bit of room with half the season remaining.
It’s hard not to imagine they’re getting excited and anxious from how they’ve performed this year. Verstappen sits 38 points ahead of Leclerc in the individual championship and is a -350 favorite to win the title in back-to-back years.
But they need to hold on to the lead, and doing so is not going to be easy. Leclerc and Ferrari have been so good with straight-line speed this season, and last week it showed as Max’s Red Bull got passed by Leclerc’s Ferrari on three separate occasions.
That’s why Horner and Red Bull have announced there are new changes coming to the car for this weekend’s race.
Leclerc and Ferrari coming from behind
The Ferrari team is no newcomer to experiencing second place. All season long, Ferrari has dealt with sitting behind Verstappen and Red Bull due to reliability issues. However, when the car performs perfectly, it is arguably better and faster than Red Bull’s, or any other F1 teams for that matter.
Leclerc and Ferrari have to pray that the reliability issues that have plagued them all season will slow down or go away completely. The only way for Leclerc and Sainz to try to work back into the championship is if the reliability issues go away and these Ferrari’s finish every race. Ferrari is currently a +200 underdog in the Constructors championship.
Ferrari is sitting less than 60 points out of Red Bull, so if Red Bull and Verstappen slip up in just one race and Ferrari has a 1-2 finish, Red Bull could lose their lead in the span of just one race. Anything can happen in these next races, and I can’t wait.
Red Bull vs. Ferrari head-to-head analysis
Red Bull race wins this year: 7 (Verstappen – 6, Perez – 1)
Ferrari race wins this year: 4 (Leclerc – 3, Sainz – 1)
According to BetOnline, Max Verstappen is currently a +120 underdog to win this race, with Leclerc coming back at +160.
These lines are getting extremely close, which means the betting public is starting to lean towards Leclerc. Recency bias is certainly a thing, and Ferrari has one of the last two races, so I understand why the line is moving this way.
That being said, Max Verstappen is the best driver in the world, and there is no way that Red Bull hasn’t made changes to the car since the last race. I fully expect Verstappen to come out and dominate in France and win the Grand Prix.
Best bet: Max Verstappen +120 on Bet Online