Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs NFL Betting Analysis, Picks

The AFC Championship is set to take place in Kansas City, with the Chiefs hosting the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. 

Cincinnati upset the No. 1 Tennessee Titans on the road last week to advance to the AFC Championship game. Their youthful offense and under-the-radar defense will look to lead them to the Super Bowl on Sunday. 

The Chiefs earned the victory in one of the wildest games ever played last week. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen were brilliant, but the Chiefs ultimately defeated the Buffalo Bills in overtime. 

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 P.M. EST. on Sunday, January 30th, at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. 

Betting Analysis for Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs NFL

Cincinnati Bengals Betting Stats & Analysis

Leading into the game against Tennessee, most people were picking the Titans to cover at home. They said the return of Derrick Henry would propel them to victory. However, if you read our betting prediction for the game, you knew better than that. 

Everybody is now talking about how Ryan Tannehill threw a late-game interception, and that is why the Bengals won. But the Cincinnati defense deserves credit. They limited Henry to just 62 yards on 20 carries. 

D’Onta Foreman rushed for 66 yards on just four carries. But the Bengals did not plan for him. Their plan was to limit Henry, and that is what they did. 

The defense got the job done, 

But how about Joe Burrow on offense? Despite taking a jaw-dropping nine sacks, the 25-year-old QB still managed to throw for 28-37 through the air with 348 yards. And although he was unable to find the endzone, Burrow’s resilience to keep going through all of the hits he took is admirable. 

So now the Bengals are preparing to face an opponent in Kansas City who finished 28th in total team sacks and 27th in passing yards per game. Yes, the Cincinnati offensive line is lousy, but even they should be able to hold strong against the Chiefs quarterback attack. 

But the key to winning this game is going to be through limiting Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ impressive passing attack. Cincinnati ranks just 26th in passing yards allowed per contest, but they are 11th in sacks. 

Being able to pressure Mahomes and force him out of the pocket is going to be a necessity. Because of all of the incredible sidearm wacky throws that Mahomes is able to make, some of those types of plays have the potential to turn into turnovers. 

And the Bengals are going to need big defensive stops or turnovers if they hope to upset Kansas City at home.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Stats & Analysis

The Chiefs lack the same kind of defensive pressure as that of the Tennessee Titans. They likely are not going to be able to sack Joe Burrow on nine separate occasions.

Their mindset has to revolve around damage control. This is a secondary that gets burned all too often, as we saw with Josh Allen last week. The Bills easily could have won that game had their defense held up with 13 seconds left. 

But Mahomes and the offense got the job done in a truly remarkable way to pick up their lackluster defensive effort. 

Mahomes finished the game with 378 yards and three touchdowns on 33-44 passing. He even led the team in rushing yards with 69 yards on the ground. The duo of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce was unstoppable, as Hill tallied 11 receptions for 150 yards and a touchdown while Kelce had eight catches for 96 yards and a touchdown as well. 

And that was against a defense that was considered to be arguably the best in the NFL. 

But the Bengals are going to study that game and make the necessary adjustments. They are not going to let Tyreek Hill make a bunch of short receptions and then burn them with his blazing speed. Expect the Bengals to consistently switch between combinations of zone blitzes as they aim to keep pressure on Mahomes while still making it difficult for the KC receivers. 

I believe the Bengals’ offense is going to play well. If the Chiefs win this game, it is going to be in another shootout that sees their offense overpower their opponent. 

Cincinnati Bengals: 

  • Cincinnati is 12-7 ATS this season. 
  • The Bengals are 6-5 ATS following a victory. 
  • They are 7-2 ATS on the road. 
  • Cincinnati is 7-3 ATS as an underdog and 5-1 ATS as an away underdog. 
  • The Bengals are 2-0 ATS so far in the postseason. 

Kansas City Chiefs:

  • Kansas City is 10-9 ATS this year. 
  • The Chiefs are 8-5 ATS after a win. 
  • They are 6-5 ATS at their home field. 
  • Kansas City is 10-9 ATS as a favorite and 6-5 ATS as a home favorite. 
  • The Chiefs are 2-0 ATS so far during the playoffs. 

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds

The Chiefs enter as seven-point favorites for this matchup. Oddsmakers are counting on this offense to get the job done. As aforementioned, it all comes down to how well the Bengals’ defense is able to limit the Chiefs’ passing attack. 

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How To Bet On: Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs NFL – Betting lines

So, do you dare take Joe Burrow against the established Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Championship Game?

Every season, in every sport, there is that one team that has the “it” factor. Last year, it was the Buccaneers. The signing of Tom Brady allowed the rest of the pieces of the puzzle to practically build themselves, and before they knew it, Brady was tossing the Super Bowl Trophy to Gronk across a body of water. 

The Cincinnati Bengals have that kind of feeling this season. Their confidence is through the roof for such a young team. 

People will point to the noise and intimidation factor of Arrowhead Stadium, but Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase played in hostile environments such as Alabama and Georgia in college that were just as loud. Burrow seems to have the kind of “Brady” mentality where he will not let things of that nature phase him. 

The Bengals are going to score enough points to win this game. The question is can the defense hold strong?

I believe the Chiefs will start strong, and their offense will post plenty of points in the first half. But the Bengals defense will wake up in the third quarter and begin to force some punts. Then late in the fourth quarter, one late-game turnover will change the dynamic of the contest, and Cincinnati will win in the final seconds of play, completing the upset.

OBS Betting Picks for Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs NFL

Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals! 

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