Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview
Buffalo cruises into Jacksonville for Week 9 NFL picks, ready to face a Jaguars team that already seems to have packed it in for the year. Urban Meyer’s squad looked disinterested last week in a 31-7 loss at Seattle as just +4 point underdogs. The Jags are back home, but will it matter?
After a loss at Tennessee, the Bills had a nice bounce-back, doing just enough in a 26-11 home win against Miami. Buffalo pushed on the -15 betting odds, which causes some concern with the -14.5 line the Bills have at both BetOnline and Bovada.
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Buffalo was up 17-3 in the 4th quarter at home last week against Miami but needed 9 points in the final 3:29 to get the push in the 15 point betting odds. The Dolphins play tough, though despite their 1-7 record and it was a division game – any reason to think Jacksonville can emulate that?
Josh Allen was 29/42 for 249 yards with 2 TD vs. the Dolphins. Allen also led the Bills with 55 rushing yards and a TD and should have another big day against the Jaguars as he had thrown for 300+ in three of four games before last week.
One reason the -14.5 betting lines shouldn’t be a huge concern for Buffalo bettors is that they’ve shown the ability to blow teams out this season. The Bills have a 35-0 win at Miami earlier this season and have dominated Houston to the tune of 40-0. It wouldn’t be too much of a stretch to see another Buffalo shutout here as the Jaguars are 27th offensively, scoring 17.6 ppg.
Totals betting for this contest has the number at 48.5, which seems insanely high. Then again, the Bills have scored 31+ points in five of the last six but can Jacksonville hold up their end of the bargain? The Jags have been held to 20 or less in four of their previous six, and the Bills allow the fewest points in the league (15.6 ppg).
No Reason to Expect a Jaguars Bounce Back
Jacksonville picked up their first win of the season in NFL week 6, outlasting Miami 23-20 in London. The Jaguars were heading into last week’s game at Seattle after a bye and were hoping to have some momentum, but they showed nothing in a 24-point loss to the Seahawks.
In that game, Seattle was without Russell Wilson, but Geno Smith was 20/24 for 195 yards and 2 TDs. The Jaguars have the #28 pass defense in the NFL, allowing 278.1 ypg, which means Buffalo’s Josh Allen should be able to do what he wants in this week’s NFL picks.
The Jaguars were down 24-0 in the 3rd quarter last week, which required QB Trevor Lawrence to throw the ball 54 times. He completed 32 of those with 238 yards and a TD, and throwing just 1 INT isn’t that bad for the rookie in that many attempts.
Lawrence was 25/41 for 319 yards and a TD in the win over Miami, but Jacksonville does best against the betting odds when they can get James Robinson and the running game going. Robinson was able to go for 149 yards on the ground in a loss to Tennessee in week five but is questionable vs. the Bills with a heel injury.
Bills at Jaguars NFL Picks
It wouldn’t take much for Jacksonville to cover the +14.5 betting odds in this game, as the Bills are more concerned with just getting wins and staying healthy.
Buffalo needed some late points just for the push against Miami last week, but there’s nothing Jacksonville showed last time out in Seattle to convince bettors they can stay in this one.
Pick: Bills -14.5
