The Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets will go head-to-head in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. It goes without saying, but Miami must win this game, trailing 3-1 in the series. The Nuggets are pushing towards earning the NBA championship. 

Miami made things interesting after winning Game 2 in Denver, evening the series at one game apiece. However, the Nuggets answered by taking two consecutive games in Miami. The Heat will try to rebound in this series. At the moment, though, their outlook certainly isn’t terrific. 

Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 PM EST on Monday, June 12 at Ball Arena in Denver, Co. Let’s take a look at the Heat vs Nuggets odds, analysis, and prediction for the game. 

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Overall Game Info & Outlook 

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets lead the series over the Heat 3-1.

Location of the game: Ball Arena | Denver | CO

Date & Time: June 12, 2023 | 8:30 PM EST

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Betting Preview 

Miami Heat Preview

The Miami Heat are trying to keep their hopes alive. Winning this NBA matchup will be a challenge without question, but Miami will have a legitimate chance of coming back in this series if they can steal a victory in Game 5. 

The series would return to Miami for Game 6 if the Heat can win on Monday. Winning at home would be feasible, potentially setting up a final Game 7 in Denver.

For now, the Heat will focus on taking care of business in Game 5 though. Let’s take a look at the against-the-spread records. 

  • The Miami Heat are 45-58-3 against the spread this season. 
  • The Heat are 23-28-1 against the spread when playing on the road. 
  • Miami is 23-19 against the spread as an underdog.
  • They are 16-15 against the spread when playing as an away underdog.

The Heat’s only win of the NBA Finals so far came in Denver. It was a narrow victory, but a win nonetheless. 

Upsetting the Heat vs Nuggets odds on Monday will be a very difficult task. Miami is a heavy underdog though, upsetting the spread at the very least is a possibility. 

Butler Needs to Figure Things Out

The Heat’s defense has struggled to contain Nikola Jokic who’s been dominating on the NBA stats. Overall though, Miami’s defense has actually done a decent job in the series. Denver hasn’t scored more than 110 points in the series so far. 

The Heat’s offense has been inconsistent though. Jimmy Butler hasn’t found his form in the series, and other role players have struggled. Bam Adebayo is doing everything he can to keep Miami in the series, but he needs help. 

Miami has only scored more than 100 points in the series once, resulting in their 111-108 Game 2 victory. Butler needs to figure things out in order to help Miami win on Monday. 

Denver Nuggets Preview 

The Denver Nuggets are on the verge of winning the NBA Finals. However, they understand that they cannot take Miami for granted. The Nuggets’ offense has simply overpowered the Heat. Everyone knows how talented Nikola Jokic is, but players like Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown have also performed admirably at times in the series. 

Meanwhile, the defense has done a great job of keeping Jimmy Butler and the Heat in check. All they need is a stronger effort, and Denver will be in line for a Finals win. Here’s a look at their against the spread records:

  • The Denver Nuggets are 56-44-1 against the spread this year.  
  • The Nuggets are 31-19-1 against the spread when playing at home.  
  • Denver is 40-36-1 against the spread when playing as a favorite.
  • They are 27-19-1 against the spread as a home favorite.

The Nuggets are favorites at the NBA odds. They labored defensively in game 2, their most recent game at home, so it will be interesting how they fare on Monday evening. 

We can expect the Nuggets to continue to try to stop Jimmy Butler. They have mostly relied on Jokic to guard Bam Adebayo without much help. If Adebayo beats Denver, the Nuggets don’t seem to be worried. Limiting Butler has clearly been their game plan, and it’s worked. 

The Nuggets offense has performed well enough. They haven’t posted 120-plus point games, but they haven’t needed to either. If Denver can score around 110 points again, they should be fine in Game 5

Let’s take a closer look at the Heat vs Nuggets odds before making our final NBA picks

Top Sportsbooks Odds

Betonline: Denver Nuggets -8.5

Bovada: Denver Nuggets -9

MyBookie: Denver Nuggets -9

BetUS: Denver Nuggets -9

BetNow: Denver Nuggets -9

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Odds & Picks 

Odds for this Matchup:

The Nuggets are favored in this game. Covering this lofty spread will be challenging in a deciding game such as this though. 

Which team should you ultimately roll with? Will the Heat be able to upset the odds on the road, or can the Nuggets close out the series while covering the spread at home?

This is likely going to be a competitive game. It wouldn’t be surprising to see it come down to the wire in the end. Miami is the best bet on NBA at Bovada for your spread selection, despite the risk. Look for the Heat to keep the score close throughout. 

  • Pick: Go ahead and roll with the Miami Heat +8.5 with your NBA Finals Game 5 pick.

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