Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics NBA Betting Analysis, Odds & Picks
The Boston Celtics have had the Golden State Warriors’ number, and they are on the cusp of taking a commanding 3-1 lead ahead of a cross-country flight. First, Boston plays host to Game 4 of the NBA Finals at 9 p.m. ET on Friday.
A 17-0 run in Game 1 allowed the Celtics to steal home court with a 120-108 run. That happened while Jayson Tatum shot 3 for 17 for the game, but complementary players stepped up, as they did again in Game 3. Marcus Smart, Al Horford, and Derrick White combined to score 45 points, Smart accounting for 24 of those, to take some of the pressure off Tatum and Jaylen Brown. It led to a 116-100 victory.
The Warriors look to answer to even the series, as they did in Game 2 when they won 107-88. Golden State 29 points from Stephen Curry in that contest, but it was Jordan Poole’s 17 points off the bench, including five for nine on 3-pointers, that created separation.
Betting Analysis for Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics
Golden State Warriors Betting Stats & Analysis
The Warriors were the second-best team in the Western Conference for most of the season until they fell into third. Including the postseason, they are 65-35 with a 51-46-4 against the spread record. The over/under is 47-52-2.
Their home/road splits are heavily at home, where they haven’t won an NBA Finals game since Kevin Durant left. This season and playoffs, the Warriors are 40-11 at home and 25-24 on the road.
While many will remember the Warriors dynasty for their space and pace offense surrounding Curry and Klay Thompson through the 2010s, this year’s Warriors are a little different speed. They were the third-best defensive team, allowing 105.5 points per game. Other defensive ranks were: second in opposing field goal percentage (43.8%), third in opposing 3-point percentage (33.9%), and fifth in opposing rebounding (42.6).
The offense still looks familiar as Steve Kerr continues to be the mastermind of it all. Golden State was 15th in points per game at 111 per. The Warriors were 10th in field goal percentage (46.9%) and eighth in 3-point percentage (36.4%).
Curry was strong, and Thompson played in 32 games after a mid-season return and still averaged better than 20 points per game. But the future looks bright as Poole took a step forward, averaging 18.5 points per game. Andrew Wiggins added 17.2 points per game and shot 39.3% on 3-pointers, a career-high.
Adding James Wiseman next season will help, but he’s out for the year. Curry is probably with a foot injury. Otto Porter Jr. (foot) and Andre Iguodala (knee) are both questionable.
Boston Celtics Betting Stats & Analysis
If there was a term to define the Celtics’ season from January on, it’s consistent greatness. They were 24-17 at home and 31-21 on the road, widely regarded as the best team entering the playoffs despite not winning the Eastern Conference.
Still, they are 65-38, including the playoffs, with a 58-43-2 record against the spread and 50-51-2 on over/unders.
A large part of that was they were the best defensive team in basketball. They were the top team in points allowed per game (104.5), opposing field goal percentage (43.4%), and opposing 3-point percentage (33.9%).
Offensively, they were 12th in points per game (111.8), 15th in field goal percentage (46.6%), and 14th in 3-point percentage (35.6%). Getting to the free throw line is key as they have the second-best percentage at 81.6%.
Robert Williams III is questionable with a knee injury entering Friday’s game.
Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics NBA Betting Trends
- Bettors slightly favor the Warriors against the spread, with 51% of bets on them
- Then 57% believe the over will hit
- In the last four meetings in Boston, the Warriors are 0-3-1 against the spread.
- Overall the Warriors are 5-15-2 against the spread in the last 22 meetings
- The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Boston
- The under is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings
- Over the last 10 games, the Celtics have won eight straight up
Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics NBA Betting Odds
Basketball odds are generally pretty similar across different sportsbooks, especially when it gets down to the playoffs.
Here’s a look at the latest odds at various sportsbooks listed by each team’s moneyline, run line and the over/under:
BetUS – Warriors +145, Celtics -165; Warriors +4, Celtics -4; 214
MyBookie – Warriors +135, Celtics -160; Warriors +4, Celtics -4; 214.5
Bovada – Warriors +140, Celtics -165; Warriors +4, Celtics -4; 214
BetNow – Warriors +145, Celtics -165; Warriors +4, Celtics -4; 214
BetOnline – Warriors +140, Celtics -160; Warriors +4, Celtics -4; 214
Where to find the best betting odds online?
Due to the similarity of odds, it is harder to find the best odds. For the underdogs, BetUS and BetNow each have the Warriors at +145. MyBookie and BetOnline have the best Celtics odds at -160. The spread is the same across the board, and MyBookie gives an extra half-point on the over/under.
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How to bet on Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics – Betting Lines (Spread, Totals, Moneyline) Betting Example
For a reference point, we’ll use a $100 unit to explain how betting moneylines works. Placing a bet on the Warriors at +145 and them winning means a $145 profit or receiving a total payout of $245. Betting on the Celtics at -160 means you’d have to bet $160 to earn an additional $100 for a payout of $260.
The spread has the same -110 odds regardless of which side you choose. Picking the Warriors means you want them to lose by three or less, or win. Betting on the Celtics means they need to win by five or more for your bet to hit.
The over/under is simply the total points between the two teams adding up to 213 or less (for a 214-point line) for the under, or 215 points or more for the over to cash.
OBS Betting Picks for Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics NBA
Boston has been the more physical team in the games they’ve won, and while the statistics are narrow, they have proven who the better defensive team is. The Warriors’ future is bright, and Poole needs to continue to show why throughout this series and particularly in Friday’s Game 4. Draymond Green, while not much of an offensive threat anymore, needs to continue to push the pace with his passing.
It’s remarkable what the Warriors have done this season, but unless the vintage offense returns, they may be flying home facing a 3-1 deficit. We’ll take the Celtics moneyline, but Warriors +4.
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