Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors NBA Betting Analysis, Odds & Picks
It’s a fresh series, stripped down to three games right back where the NBA Finals initially started. After the first four contests, the Boston Celtics again visit the Golden State Warriors for Game 5 at 9 p.m. ET on Monday at the Chase Center.
If the consistency of the first four games of the series is worth anything, the Celtics are due to win since they won games 1 and 3. That’s a hard ask when the Warriors are 40-11, including the postseason, in their home arena this season. But it is something they did in Game 1, going on a game-clinching 17-0 run to steal it 120-108.
The Warriors answered losses with wins in games 2 and 4. Jordan Poole stepped up to score 17 points off the bench in the second game, a 107-88 victory. The second win was a vintage Stephen Curry performance as he scored 43 points on 7-for-14 shooting on 3-pointers to go with 10 assists. Andrew Wiggins stepped up on the glass with 17 points and 16 rebounds.
In-between the two Warriors wins was the Game 3 Celtics win, which featured five scorers in double figures, including 24 points from Marcus Smart.
Each team is 2-2 against the spread, and both the over and under are also 2-2.
Betting Analysis for Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors
Boston Celtics Betting Stats & Analysis
Unfortunately for the Celtics, or perhaps, fortunately, emerging star Jayson Tatum has struggled. He is averaging 22.3 points per game and has shot 28 for 82 (34.1%), with his best night coming in the Game 2 loss. However, he has been a factor on the defensive end, where it matters most.
The Celtics were the best defensive team in the regular season. They ranked first in: points allowed per game (104.5), opposing field goal percentage (43.4%), and opposing 3-point percentage (33.9%). Their rebounding, defensive pressure, and physicality has prepared them for a pair of wins in this series, and they’ll need that to show up in a hostile environment to do so again in Game 5.
Boston’s offense wasn’t quite top tier, but it was above average. They ranked 12th in points per game, scoring 111.8 per contest. But their efficiency was 15th from the field and 14th from 3-point range. Though if they get to the free-throw line, the Celtics are markedly better, converting 81.6%, which was second in the league.
Including the regular season and playoffs, the Celtics are 58-44-2 against the spread and 50-52-2 on over/unders. They also have been equally good on the road, sporting a 31-21 record compared to 34-18 at home.
Golden State Warriors Betting Stats & Analysis
Defense has gotten both these teams to this stage, and they’re trading standout performances. The Warriors, during the regular season, were third in points allowed per game (105.5), second in opposing field goal percentage (43.8%), and third in opposing 3-point percentage (33.9%).
Golden State’s offense most will remember from their dynasty is still there, in terms of spacing, but the pace has slowed at times, which is reflected in their offensive numbers. The Warriors are 15th in scoring at 111.0 points per game. They were top-10 in efficiency, including eighth in 3-point shooting while converting 36.4%.
The Warriors have a 52-46-4 record against the spread and are 47-53-2 on over/unders, including the regular season and postseason.
Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors NBA Betting Trends
- Bettors are favoring the Warriors with 65% on Golden State against the spread.
- Bettors are heavily on the over, with 72% of bets
- The under is 18-6 in the last 24 meetings
- The under is 8-1 in the last nine meetings at Golden State
- Boston is 6-2-1 against the spread in the last nine meetings, though the two losses are to the Warriors in this series
- Boston is 9-2 against the spread at Golden State over the last 11 meetings, with one loss coming in Game 2
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Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors NBA Betting Odds
Oddsmakers are pretty consistent across the board for basketball, but there are some subtle differences where those eyeing a particular team can make an extra buck.
Here’s a look at the latest odds at various sportsbooks listed by each team’s moneyline, run line and the over/under:
BetUS – Celtics +150, Warriors -170; Celtics +4, Warriors -4; 211
MyBookie – Celtics +140, Warriors -175; Celtics +3.5, Warriors -3.5; 212.5
Bovada – Celtics +150, Warriors -175; Celtics +4, Warriors -4; 211
BetNow – Celtics +140, Warriors -160; Celtics +3.5, Warriors -3.5, 212
BetOnline – Celtics +150, Warriors -170; Celtics +4, Warriors -4; 211
Where to Find the Best Betting Odds Online?
Celtics moneyline bettors can choose either BetUS, Bovada, or BetOnline to get them at +150. Warriors moneyline bettors should go to BetNow to get the best odds at -160. Getting the hook is worthwhile for some, and MyBookie and BetNow offer those opportunities.
The over/under hook is at MyBookie, while a 211 for over bettors is at BetUS, Bovada, and BetOnline. Those looking at the over may opt for MyBookie or BetNow.
How to Bet on Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors – Betting Lines (Spread, Totals, Moneyline) Betting Example
We’ll use $100 as a sample bet to easiest explain how the odds work. A $100 bet on the Celtics at +150 and a Boston win means a profit of $150 and a total payout of $250. Conversely, betting on Warriors -160 means a $160 bet is needed to profit $100 and get a total payout of $260.
Betting against the spread is like handicapping the game. Oddsmakers are giving the Celtics points, meaning a bet on Celtics +4 cashes out if the Celtics lose by three or less, or win outright. A bet on Warriors -4 only cashes if the Warriors win by five points or more.
Betting the over/under is as it sounds. A bet on over 212.5 cashes if the total combined points is 213 points or more. A bet on under 212.5 cashes if the total combined points is 212 or lower.
OBS Betting Picks for Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors NBA
The team that has won the rebounding margin has won each game in this series. That favors the Celtics because of the size of their stars — Tatum and Jaylen Brown — and their frontcourt depth with Al Horford and Robert Williams III. Golden State needs all five guys to crash, which will limit their transition opportunities.
The other key is “the other guys” for both teams. Brown and Tatum are going to score for Boston, but they need complementary players to step up. Smart did it in a large way, Derrick White has as well, and so have Horford and Grant Williams. For Golden State, it’s been Poole and Wiggins. But they could use more.
Golden State has been strong at home, and they got a vintage Curry performance last time out. But the Warriors can’t be too reliant on their superstar. With the size deficit, it will take a concerted effort in all aspects, and Golden State can’t afford to lack in any areas with less depth.
We like the Celtics to cover +4 and win outright.
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