Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers Odds, Picks and Predictions
The Toronto Blue Jays visit the Milwaukee Brewers for a three-game series that begins at 8:10 p.m. ET on Friday. It’s a meeting of a pair of expected playoff teams.
Toronto (39-30) is second in the AL East, 12.5 games behind the streaking New York Yankees. Milwaukee (40-32) is tied atop the NL Central with the St. Louis Cardinals.
For Brewers’ first baseman Rowdy Tellez, it figures to be an emotional series. The slugger came up with the Blue Jays and played parts of four seasons with the big league club before being traded to Milwaukee, where he’s hitting .249 with a .782 OPS, 16 doubles, 11 home runs, and 41 RBIs. His 123 games played since the trade last season is 96 games short of his total time with the Blue Jays in nearly a quarter of the time.
Alek Manoah has been lights out for Toronto, sporting an 8-1 record with a 1.67 ERA across 13 starts. The Blue Jays are 9-4 in games he starts with the under 10-4 in those contests. He allowed four earned runs in his previous start against the Yankees but had a pair of scoreless starts prior to that.
Adrian Houser will oppose him. The Milwaukee righty is 4-7 with a 4.24 ERA in 13 starts this season. He got off to a great start to the year but has allowed 12 earned runs in his last three starts and 18 over his last five.
Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers Match Info
Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Date: Friday, June 24, 2022
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
TV: SNET, Bally Sports Wisconsin
Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers Odds
- BetOnline – Blue Jays -139, Brewers +129; Blue Jays -1.5 (+115), Brewers +1.5 (-135); 8.5
- Bovada – Blue Jays -140, Brewers +117; Blue Jays -1.5 (+125), Brewers +1.5 (-145); 8.5
- MyBookie – Blue Jays -140, Brewers +120; Blue Jays -1.5 (+120), Brewers +1.5 (-140); 8.5
- BetUS – Blue Jays -140, Brewers +125; Blue Jays -1.5 (+115), Brewers +1.5 (-135); 8.5
- BetNow – Blue Jays -139, Brewers +129; Blue Jays -1.5 (+120), Brewers +1.5 (-140); 8.5
The odds are fairly even across the board. The best moneyline bet on the Blue Jays is -139 at BetOnline or BetNow. The same two books have the Brewers at +129.
The top run line odds for the Blue Jays are at Bovada -1.5 (+125). For the Brewers, it is at BetOnline or BetUS +1.5 (-135). All of the over/unders are the same, though the odds may vary, with the over likely netting a larger profit across the board.
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It’s rare that these two teams get together, meeting for the first time since a pair of two-game series in 2017. Prior to that, they did the same thing in 2014.
Many of the players have changed since even before the 2017 series, in which the two teams split, winning each of their games in their opponent’s park. The under hit three times in those four games.
Though history shows the over has success in Milwaukee, hitting seven times in the last nine game meetings.
Toronto is 18-16 on the road this season and 36-32-1 on over/unders. The Blue Jays have won four of their last ten games, and the over is 9-1 in that span.
Milwaukee is 17-14 at home and 33-33-6 on over/unders this season. The Brewers are 6-4 over their last ten games, with the under 5-4-1 in that span.
Toronto’s top offense
The Blue Jays have been slugging baseballs all season, ranking ninth at 4.73 runs per game. They are hitting .255 (fifth) with a .753 OPS (fourth). That power has willed them to second in their division and the top wild-card spot in the American League if the season were to end today.
Eight players have hit at least ten doubles this season, paced by Santiago Espinal with 18. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has 17 home runs and 42 RBIs, both team highs. George Springer has scored a team-best 40 runs. Alejandro Kirk is hitting .307 in 189 at bats.
The production comes from throughout the lineup, and with Manoah, they don’t need to offer much run support the way he has been pitching.
For his career, he is 17-4 with a 2/71 ERA, and 200 strikeouts in 192.2 innings pitched. Should the Jays score an early lead and Manoah pitch deep enough, David Phelps, Tim Mayza, and Matt Gage have been strong bridging to closer Jordan Romano, who has saved 17 of 20 opportunities. Adam Cimber, a sidewinder, is 3 for 3 in save opportunities and 7-2 with a 4.03 ERA as another high leverage guy.
As a whole, the pitching staff has been league average, though, surrendering 4.35 runs per game (16th) and allowing opponents to hit .250 (20th) with a .715 OPS (19th).
Milwaukee is leveling off
Unfortunately for the Brewers, or perhaps, fortunately, their offense is trendings slightly up, but their pitching is starting to fall off. Houser is an example of that after a great start to the season.
While they may have the best setup and closer situation with Devin Williams and Josh Hader, the Brewers have to have a lead to get there.
Milwaukee’s staff is allowing 4.21 runs per game (14th) but have been better about limiting opponents to a .233 batting average and .681 OPS, ranking 10th and ninth, respectively. Their 9.49 strikeouts per game is second in the league.
The Brewers aren’t afraid to supply their own power, which is why they are dangerous if they can get more guys on base. They hit .232 as a team, the sixth-worst mark in baseball, but have a .711 OPS, ranking 15th.
They score 4.43 runs per game (18th) largely by way of home runs, sporting a 1.38 per game average. That’s the fourth-best mark in baseball.
The aforementioned Tellez is a big part of that. So is Willy Adames, who leads shortstops with 15 home runs, and he’s done it in 50 games. Hunter Renfroe splits them with 13 home runs, a welcome addition after trading Jackie Bradley Jr. to Boston for Renfroe.
Christian Yelich is finally heating up, hitting .240 with 11 doubles, two triples, seven home runs, and 44 runs scored. But overall, only catcher Omar Narvaez and Victor Caratini, and injured utility man Mike Brosseau, are hitting above .250 with at least 60 at bats.
Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Predictions
- It could certainly be worse value on the Blue Jays’ moneyline despite a perceived mismatch among starting pitchers. It’s almost surprising how slight they are favored.
- A pair of teams with a lot of pop could easily send this over, but Manoah is on the bump, which may limit Milwaukee’s opportunities to get baserunners even if they were to hit a home run or two.
- Taking Toronto is the way to go on the moneyline. The way Houser has been pitching, salting a little on the run line to try and