Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Odds, Picks and Predictions

The Boston Red Sox are in a critical stretch leading up to the All-Star break when they will only play the Tampa Bay Rays or New York Yankees. Wednesday’s series finale with the Rays will decide the first of those four series.

Red Sox Nation is anticipating the 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch from top prospect Brayan Bello, who will make his Major League debut. He was the organization’s minor league Pitcher of the Year in 2021 with a 7-3 record, 3.87 ERA, 1.28 WHIP (Walks, Hits per Innings Pitched), and averaged 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings between high-A and double-A.

This year, he was 10-4 with a 2.33 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and 114 strikeouts in 85 innings pitched between double-A and triple-A.

He’ll oppose Corey Kluber, who has two Cy Young awards to his name. Kluber is 3-5 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.16 WHIP for the Rays this season. They are 7-8 in his starts, and the over/under is 5-10. Kluber gave up five runs across three innings in his last start against Toronto. He also allowed four runs on 11 hits in five innings in a 4-3 Red Sox win on April 22.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Match Info

Location: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts

Date: Wednesday, July 6, 2022

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

TV: Bally Sports Sun, NESN

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Odds

Odds are listed in moneyline, run line and over/under order:

  • BetOnline – Rays +111, Red Sox -121; Rays +1.5 (-178), Red Sox +1.5 (+158); 9
  • Bovada – Rays +108, Red Sox -130; Rays +1.5 (-175), Red Sox -1.5 (+150); 9
  • MyBookie – Rays +115, Red Sox -135; Rays +1.5 (-190), Rays -1.5 (+160); 9
  • BetUS – Rays +112, Red Sox -122; Rays +1.5 (-175), Red Sox -1.5 (+155); 9
  • BetNow – Rays +113, Red Sox -123; Rays +1.5 (-175), Red Sox -1.5 (+155); 9

The Red Sox are slight favorites, and the best moneyline odds are at BetOnline (-121) compared to the Rays’ at +115 at MyBookie. If the Red Sox were to win by two or more, the best payout is at MyBookie (-160).

Conversely, the Rays +1.5 has three books – Bovada, BetUS, and BetNow – as the best odds at -175. The over/under is at 9.0 though odds may vary depending on which side you pick.

Betting Trends

  • Public money sides with the Red Sox, who have 57% of moneyline bets on them
  • The over is a slight favorite among public bettors, netting 53% of bets
  • The over is 16-4-1 over the last 21 meetings at Fenway Park
  • The Rays are 1-4 in their last five games – winning last night – in Boston
  • The under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings regardless of location
  • The Rays are 2-5 in the last seven meetings regardless of location
  • Tampa Bay is 38-38-5 on over/unders and 19-20 away from home
  • The Red Sox are 32-40-9 on over/unders and 21-17 at Fenway Park

Tampa Bay finding offense

Bello has proven to be difficult at every level with his three pitch mix, all with movement. His two-seam fastball sits at 97 to 98 miles per hour with a slider and changeup. The Rays have had issues offensively this year, but they’re getting healthy with Wander Franco’s return to the lineup.

Offensively they’re scoring 4.15 runs per game, ranking 23rd, and have a .237 batting average (21st) and .680 OPS (27th). That’s where they’re lacking, though, the power numbers.

Randy Arozarena has been the most consistent with a .722 OPS with 18 doubles, two triples, and eight home runs. He also has 18 stolen bases, 37 runs scored, and 36 RBIs. The loss of Manuel Margot (.302 batting average) hasn’t helped with their outfield defense, either. Franco is up to .261 with a .713 OPS, sporting 12 doubles, two triples, five home runs, and 34 runs scored in 55 games. Harold Ramirez is hitting .314 with a .796 OPS, to the surprise of some.

Tampa Bay has always been great with their pitching staff. They are allowing 3.92 runs per game, ranking fifth. Opponents have a .227 batting average (fifth) with a .670 OPS (sixth) against Rays’ pitching this season.

J.P. Feyereisen had not allowed an earned run in 24.1 innings pitched before suffering an injury. Though ten pitchers have an ERA better than 3.00, and six of those have either been an opener or a regular starter, which includes Cy Young frontrunner Shane McClanahan.

Boston a top 10 team

It didn’t start out the way Red Sox fans wanted, but they’ve matured to a top 10 team both offensively and with their pitching staff, which adds some firepower. Perhaps the surprising part is the offense is what struggled early on.

Now they are scoring 4.75 runs per game (ninth) with the league’s best batting average at .262 and a .741 OPS (sixth). Rafael Devers is on a Most Valuable Player pace with a .327 batting average, 27 doubles, 17 home runs, 46 RBIs, and 57 runs scored, all of which lead the team except RBIs.

Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez have been consistent in the heart of Boston’s lineup. Surging are Alex Verdugo, who is up to a .264 batting average, and Christian Vazquez, up to .290. Also, top prospect Jarren Duran is hitting .329 with seven doubles, two triples, and a home run in 73 at bats.

The pitching has been great all season, and Bello hopes to add to that. The staff is allowing 4.01 runs per game (eighth) and an opposing batting average of .232 and OPS of .679, both ranking seventh.

The starters have been excellent, and the additions of John Schreiber in the bullpen and Josh Winckowski to the rotation have been an added bonus. Tanner Houck is showcasing his versatility with a 4-3 record and is 6 for 6 in save opportunities with a 3.47 ERA and 51 strikeouts in 49.1 innings pitched.

Garrett Whitlock, who is nearing a return from injury, has been used similarly, and one may think Chris Sale will as well when he returns from his rib injury.

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Picks and Predictions

  • Whichever team bettors think will win have fair odds to make some cash. Betting on the favorite’s moneyline is a solid option, especially for two teams who like to play close games.
  • Nine is a tricky number because there isn’t a hook. Kluber has been hit or miss in his starts this season and has been very bad at times. If the lone meeting with the Sox this season is any indication, things could spiral with a used bullpen. Yesterday’s game featured six combined runs in the first two innings.
  • We’ll take the Red Sox moneyline at -121 and would entertain their run line -1.5 at +160 because of how they fared against Kluber in April when their offense was struggling.

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