Odds, Picks and Predictions

The St. Louis Cardinals (51-46) are trying to chase down the Milwaukee Brewers (53-44) in the National League Central, so it isn’t ideal that as they head north of the border that they’ll be without their two best hitters due to COVID-19 vaccination restrictions.

Perhaps the Toronto Blue Jays (53-43) get a gift as they look to expand their lead for the wild card’s top spot with a two-game series that begins on Tuesday.

Andre Pallante draws the start for the Cardinals. He is 3-4 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.46 WHIP (Walks, Hits per Innings Pitched). The Cardinals are 4-4 in his starts, and the over/under is 3-5.

He’s given up three earned runs across five-plus innings in each of his last two starts since a string of losing four in five starts and a blow-up of seven runs allowed against Atlanta on July 5 to close that streak.

Veteran Jose Berrios has been inconsistent with a 7-4 record, 5.22 ERA, and 1.36 WHIP. The Blue Jays, however, are 14-5 in his starts and the over/under is 13-6.

In his four starts in July, though, he has allowed three earned runs or less, pitching at least five innings in each. All four starts were Blue Jays wins.

St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays Match Info

Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Date: Tuesday, July 26, 2022

Time: 7:07 p.m. ET

TV: Bally Sports Midwest, Sports NET

St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays Odds

Odds are listed in moneyline, run line, and over/under order:

  • BetOnline – Cardinals +192, Blue Jays -210; Cardinals +1.5 (-110), Blue Jays -1.5 (-110); 9
  • Bovada – Cardinals +180, Blue Jays -220; Cardinals +1.5 (-110), Blue Jays -1.5 (-110); 8.5
  • MyBookie – Cardinals +185, Blue Jays -225; Cardinals +1.5 (-115), Blue Jays -1.5 (-105); 9
  • BetUS – Cardinals +190, Blue Jays -230; Cardinals +1.5 (-110), Blue Jays +1.5 (-110); 8.5
  • BetNow – Cardinals +190, Blue Jays -210; Cardinals +1.5 (-115), Blue Jays -1.5 (-105); 9

The Blue Jays are heavy moneyline favorites, but the best odds (-210) are at BetOnline and BetNow. The best Cardinals moneyline odds are at BetOnline (+192).

The best Cardinals runline odds are +1.5 (-110) at BetOnline, Bovada, and BetUS. The best Blue Jays runline odds are -1.5 (-105) at MyBookie and BetNow.

The over/under has some differences if you want the hook to go over 8.5. The odds on the over or under also varies by book.

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Betting Trends

  • The under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Toronto
  • Yet the over is 5-0 in the last five meetings overall
  • The Cardinals are 5-2 in the last seven meetings regardless of location
  • Public bettors heavily favor the Blue Jays’ moneyline, with 73% of bets
  • Data show that 57% of public bets are on the over
  • The Cardinals are 45-48-4 on over/unders and 22-26 away from home
  • The Blue Jays are 52-43-1 on over/unders and 30-19 at home

Cardinals’ skewed offense

Looking at season averages, the Cardinals are a top 10 team offensively and with their pitching staff. However, without Most Valuable Player candidate Paul Goldschmidt and star third baseman Nolan Arenado, their offensive numbers are skewed.

Still, for the season, the Cardinals are scoring 4.67 runs per game with a .251 batting average, both ranking ninth. Their .725 OPS is 11th. Goldschmidt is hitting .335 with a 1.037 OPS, 28 doubles, 24 home runs, 77 RBIs, and 68 runs. Arenado is hitting .296 with a .891 OPS, 24 doubles, 18 home runs, 59 RBIs, and 42 runs scored. That production is gone for these two games.

The pitching staff, though, is mostly intact. They allow 4.03 runs per game, ranking eighth, but showcase a great strand rate while allowing a .244 batting average (15th) and .703 opposing OPS (14th). They also don’t generate a lot of whiffs, striking out only 7.43 hitters per game, the third worst rate in the league.

One benefit for the Cardinals is they have always had great depth. Tommy Edman has been key at the top of the lineup, and rookie Brendan Donvan is having a great year. But the absences and an injury to Juan Yepez leave them with no-hitters with double-digit home runs or more than 35 RBIs.

Toronto poised for slugfest

The Blue Jays have had one of the league’s best offenses all season, which is a large reason why they were an American League East and pennant favorite entering the season. They are third, scoring 4.94 runs per game, with the league’s best batting average (.267) and third-best OPS (.771). They also strike out the seventh fewest times per game at 7.9 per contest.

They are legacy driven, with stars Valdimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggo, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., among others, filling out their lineup. Guerrero has a team-high 20 home runs, 60 RBIs and 52 runs scored. Gurriel is hitting .313, second behind catcher Alejandro Kirk, with a team-high 24 doubles. Bichette has 21 doubles, 14 home runs, 53 runs scored, and 52 RBIs.

The addition of Matt Chapman alongside veteran George Springer has given the lineup great power throughout.

The pitching staff is 16th, allowing 4.37 runs per game. Their strand rate is slightly better since opponents have a batting average of .249 and OPS of .719 against Toronto pitching, each rank 21st.

Berrios appears to be finding a groove, and that consistency will be key as he should dominate a depleted Cardinals lineup. There are still plenty of threats, but this is a great opportunity for him to close out a solid month of July and give the Blue Jays what they thought they were getting when they traded for him.

St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Predictions

  • The moneyline is pretty one-sided and deservedly so. It doesn’t provide the best value for those on the Blue Jays, and the Cardinals are talented enough that they could steal a game because they have solid pitching in their rotation and bullpen.
  • The over/under could be a trap with the way Berrios has pitched this month. His overall ERA is high, but it’s been much better, and Pallante isn’t a bad arm. If both give their staffs’ length, this could hit under.
  • We’ll side with the Blue Jays moneyline but swing for the run line with caution. It may be like a slugger trying to hit the other way against the shift, especially if favoring the under in this game.

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