Seattle Mariners at Washington Nationals Odds, Picks and Predictions

The Seattle Mariners are red hot, having won 16 of the last 19 games, including eight straight. They have climbed back into the wild-card chase and pulled even with a four-game sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays for the last spot.

Now the Mariners get a prime opportunity to extend their streak against the Washington Nationals, who have lost nine of their last ten and are one game ahead of the worst record.

Seattle (45-42) has climbed to second in the American League West but is still a distant 12 games behind the Houston Astros. The Mariners send Chris Flexen to the mound. He is 5-8 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.40 WHIP (Walks, Hits per Innings Pitched). Seattle is 6-10 in his starts, and the over/under is 5-11.

Promising righty Josiah Gray gets the ball for the Nationals. He is 7-5 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He was a prized prospect who came over from the Los Angeles Dodgers in a trade that sent Trea Turner to Hollywood. Gray can be hit or miss.

He had a string of five straight starts where he allowed a total of two earned runs. Since, though, he’s allowed two, six, and two earned runs in his last three starts.

Seattle Mariners at Washington Nationals Match Info

Location: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.

Date: Tuesday, July 12, 2022

Time: 7:05 p.m. ET

TV: ROOT Northwest, MASN 2

Seattle Mariners at Washington Nationals Odds

Odds are listed in moneyline, run line and over/under order:

  • BetOnline – Mariners -107, Nationals -103; Mariners -1.5 (+145), Nationals +1.5 (-165); 9
  • Bovada – Mariners -112, Nationals -108; Mariners -1.5 (+140), Nationals +1.5 (-165); 9
  • MyBookie – Mariners -110, Nationals -110; Mariners -1.5 (+140), Nationals +1.5 (-165); 9
  • BetUS – Mariners -106, Nationals -104; Mariners -1.5 (+145), Nationals +1.5 (-165); 9
  • BetNow – Mariners -106, Nationals 104; Mariners -1.5 (+140), Nationals +1.5 (-160); 9

This game is nearly a pick ’em; in fact, it is at MyBookie. The best odds for the Mariners moneyline are at BetUS and BetNow at -106. The best moneyline odds for the Nationals is at BetOnline at -103.

The run line odds are nearly the same across the board, with three books – Bovada, MyBookie, and BetNow – offering Mariners -1.5 at +140. BetNow is offering the best Nationals run line odds at +1.5 (-160).

The over/under is nine runs at each book though the odds vary depending on whether you want the under or over. Typically the over has been a slight favorite.

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Betting Trends

  • The Nationals are 8-1 in the last nine meetings in the nation’s capital
  • The Nationals are 13-3 in the last 16 meetings regardless of location
  • The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Washington D.C.
  • The Mariners are 41-44-2 on over/unders and 21-22 away from home
  • The Nationals are 42-43-3 on over/unders and 14-31 at home
  • Early trends show the Mariners as betting favorites with 78% of bets on their moneyline

Continuing the trend

The Mariners have benefitted from acquiring Carlos Santana a few weeks ago. He’s played in 12 games and is hitting .282 with a .943 OPS, including three home runs, six RBIs, and nine runs scored. That’s a much better improvement from a .216 batting average and .690 OPS with four home runs in 52 games with the Kansas City Royals.

Santana has given the Mariners’ offense a needed lift. They rank 24th in the league scoring 4.13 runs per game and having a batting average of .234. The team’s .703 OPS ranks 15th. It’s possible they add more bats before the trade deadline as they’re now in the playoff hunt.

Julio Rodriguez is the American League Rookie of the Year frontrunner as the All-Star break nears. He’s hitting .274 with a .812 OPS, 17 doubles, 15 home runs (both tied with Eugenio Suarez for the team lead), 44 RBIs, 50 runs scored, and 21 stolen bases. He’s been sensational. So, too, has Ty France, who is hitting .306 with 15 doubles, ten home runs, and a team-best 45 RBIs.

The pitching has been the strong suit all season, allowing 3.87 runs per game, good for fourth in the league. Opponents have a batting average of .236 against them (11th) and a .696 OPS (14th). Though they allow a fourth-worst 1.27 home runs per game.

Logan Gilbert has been a bright spot in the rotation. So has Marco Gonzales, Robbie Ray, and Flexen. The bullpen has had its success on the backend, but another arm or two could be acquired.

Offense needs to support Gray

When Gray takes the mound, it is arguably the best opportunity the Nationals have to win a game. He’s been the bright spot for a pitching staff that is the worst in baseball. They rank last in runs allowed per game (5.62), opposing OPS (.785), and home runs allowed per game (1.46). 

They have the second-worst opposing batting average against (.269) and are 23rd in strikeouts per game (7.95).

The offense should be performing better. They are 27th at scoring 3.97 runs per game. However, they have the 10th best batting average at .248 and 19th best OPS at .691. They also strikeout the second-fewest times per game at 7.38.

Superstar Juan Soto is heating up. Since June 27, he’s hitting .429 with three home runs, two doubles, 12 walks, ten runs scored, and six RBIs. He’s boosted his season average to .243 with a .871 OPS to go with a team-best 17 home runs and 52 runs scored. He’s driven in 37 runs.

The Nationals have nine guys with ten or more doubles, led by Josh Bell’s 19. Bell has 12 home runs tied for a team-high 47 RBIs with Nelson Cruz and is hitting .304.

Seattle Mariners at Washington Nationals Picks and Predictions

  • Gray is a big reason why the moneyline is close on this. Otherwise, one would think the Mariners would be heavier favorites given the poor pitching performances of the Nationals this season.
  • With two hurlers who have ERAs that are four or worse, it’s easy to see why the over is favored at most books. Nine runs combined seems like a small number.
  • The Mariners’ offense is red hot and needs to be accounted for, even against a promising prospect like Gray. The pick here is Mariners -106. The run line would be tricky to bet on, though, due to the struggling pitching staffs for each.

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