MLB

Odds, Picks and Predictions

The Seattle Mariners have to be looking forward to a getaway day on Sunday after a four-game series against the Houston Astros begins at 8:10 p.m. ET on Thursday.

Houston (64-34) leads the American League West, with the Mariners (53-45) second. The Astros have dominated the series of late and are 9-6 this season, with the under also 9-6 so far. It will be their last meeting until potentially the postseason.

Seattle has won 19 of their last 23 games, but three of those losses came in a series sweep at T-Mobile Park last weekend. Thursday’s pitching matchup favors them, though, as they look to turn the tide.

Logan Gilbert is 10-4 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.15 WHIP (Walks, Hits per Innings Pitched) this season. Seattle is 14-6 in his starts, and the over/under is 8-11. Gilbert is 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.05 WHIP against the Astros this season, with 16 strikeouts across 19 innings.

Jose Urquidy opposes him. He is 9-4 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. The Astros are 12-6 in his starts, and the over/under is 9-8. Seattle has had his number as Urquidy is 1-3 with a 7.58 ERA and 2.11 WHIP, surrendering 16 earned runs across 19 innings this season.

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros Match Info

Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas

Date: Thursday, July 28, 2022

Time: 8:10 p.m. ET

TV: Root Sports North, AT&T Sports Net

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros Odds

Odds are listed in moneyline, run line, and over/under order:

  • BetOnline – Mariners +125, Astros -135; Mariners +1.5 (-165), Astros -1.5 (+145); 8
  • Bovada – Mariners +120, Astros -143; Mariners +1.5 (-165), Astros -1.5 (+140); 8
  • MyBookie – Mariners +120, Astros -140; Mariners +1.5 (-165), Astros -1.5 (+140); 8
  • BetUS – Mariners +125, Astros -140; Mariners +1.5 (-160), Astros -1.5 +140); 8
  • BetNow – Mariners +124, Astros -134; Mariners +1.5 (-170), Astros -1.5 (+150); 8

While the Mariners are underdogs, and despite the Astros sweeping them in Seattle last week, Thursday’s series opener is close in betting terms.

Mariners +125 is available at BetOnline or BetUS, the best odds for them, and Astros -134 at BetNow is the best. Mariners +1.5 (-160) at BetUS is their best run line odds, while Astros -1.5 (+150) at BetNow is the best. The over/under is consistently 8.

Betting Trends

  • The over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Houston
  • The Astros are 41-18 in the last 59 meetings in Houston
  • Seattle is 18-45 in the last 63 meetings regardless of location
  • The Mariners are 46-50-2 on over/unders and 27-22 on the road
  • Houston is 36-59-3 on over/unders and 30-14 at home
  • Data show public bettors favor the Astros with 62% of bets on their moneyline
  • Then 54% of public bets are on the under

Seattle needs its offense

The Mariners are in contention largely because their offense has picked up. They are 23rd with 4.15 runs per game and a .236 batting average.

Their power numbers are league average, though, with a .708 OPS (15th) and 1.12 home runs per game (13th). Though they also strike out 8.72 times per game (18th).

Julio Rodriguez became known nationwide with his Home Run Derby performance and wearing a microphone during the All-Star Game. He’s homered in consecutive days to take the team lead with 18 to go with 56 RBIs and 55 runs scored.

He’s hitting .274 with a .872 OPS. Ty France is hitting .309 and is one of three with 18 doubles. He (13), Eugenio Suarez (16), and Cal Raleigh (14) each have double-digit home runs to supply some pop.

The pitching staff has been very good, allowing 3.82 runs per game to rank fifth in the league. Opponents have a .236 batting average against them and .696 OPS – each 11th. Though they allow 1.24 home runs per contest, the fourth worst rate, and only strike out 8.46 hitters per contest (17th).

Ken Giles has allowed one hit and four walks across his first 4.1 innings. Erik Swanson, Penn Murfee, and Andres Munoz are solid out of the bullpen, while Paul Sewald is 12 for 15 in save opportunities.

There is plenty to like with their ace, Gilbert, going on Thursday in a great matchup.

Houston, we have lift off

The Astros offense is league average except for when it comes to power. They score 4.51 runs per game, ranking 14th, with a .239 batting average (19th).

But their OPS is sixth at .740, and they have the third most home runs per contest, averaging 1.43 per game. They also strike out the third-fewest times per contest at 7.61 per game.

Yordan Alvarez has powered the offense for most of the season with a .309 average, 29 home runs, 67 RBIs, and 64 runs scored – all team-highs.

He’s squarely in the Most Valuable Player conversation. He’s one of seven hitters with double-digit home runs, including Kyle Tucker and Jose Altuve with 19 each. Rookie Jeremy Pena has 15.

The pitching staff has been excellent, powered by great starting pitching. They are third, allowing 3.45 runs per contest. They have the best opposing batting average of .212 and opposing OPS of .623. They are also fifth in strikeouts, striking out 9.12 hitters per game.

The backend of the bullpen has been strong, with closer Ryan Pressly saving 20 of 23 opportunities. Seth Martinez, Rafael Montero, and Ryne Stanek each have ERAs of 2.17 or better.

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros Picks and Predictions

  • The Astros are very good at home and are rewarded as favorites on the moneyline despite the pitching matchup not favoring them.
  • Both teams have strong pitching staffs, so eight runs seems like a fair number, but the potential with their offenses’ power makes the over very much in play. The tricky part is how strong Gilbert has been.
  • All signs point to backing Gilbert and the Mariners, who have been on a tear since late June. We’ll take Seattle +125 on the moneyline and double down with +1.5 (-160).

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