MLB

Odds, Picks, and Predictions

What was once a competitive divisional race is no longer. Still, the rivalry holds weight as the San Francisco Giants (48-43) chase a wildcard position while the Los Angeles Dodgers (60-30) hope to secure the best record in the National League.

The Dodgers won 14 of their last 17 games before the All-Star break to bump their NL West lead to 10 games over the San Diego Padres. At one point in early May, all five divisional teams were above .500.

Now the rivalry goes deeper with a four-game series beginning Thursday on national television. The Giants are sending Carlos Rodon to the mound. He is 8-5 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP (Walks, Hits per Innings Pitched).

The Giants are 8-10 in his starts, and the under is 10-6-2 in his starts. He’s made two starts against the Dodgers, giving up two runs on three hits in a 3-1 loss on May 3 and throwing eight shutout innings in a 2-0 win on June 12.

Mitch White gets the start for the Dodgers. He is 1-2 with a 4.20 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP. The right-hander has appeared in 12 games, becoming a starter in late May. He typically averages four to five innings with a max of 5.2. The Dodgers are 3-4 in his starts, and the under is 4-3.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers Match Info

Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, California

Date: Thursday, July 21, 2022

Time: 10:09 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers Odds

Odds are listed in moneyline, run line, and over/under order:

  • BetOnline – Giants +128, Dodgers -138; Giants +1.5 (-155), Dodgers -1.5 (+135); 8
  • Bovada – Giants +126, Dodgers -150; Giants +1.5 (-170), Dodgers -1.5 (+145); 8
  • MyBookie – N/A
  • BetUS – N/A
  • BetNow – N/A

For whatever reason, not every sportsbook has odds listed as of this writing, which limits the opportunities to capitalize on slightly different odds. It does point to BetOnline as a distinct difference regardless of which team, moneyline or runline, or whatever you want to bet on. Both books had over/unders of 8.0 with slightly better odds on the under.

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Betting Trends

  • The under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings
  • In five meetings this season, the Giants are 3-2
  • Only the home team has won in the season series
  • The under is 3-1-1 this season but was split at 1-1 at Dodger Stadium
  • The Giants are 45-42-4 on over/unders and 22-21 away from home
  • The Dodgers are 34-46-10 on over/unders and 30-13 at home

Giants’ offense due for regression?

San Francisco has the third-best offense scoring 4.86 runs per game, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. The Giants’ team batting average is .238, which ranks 21st in the league.

Their power numbers – a .724 OPS and 1.23 home runs per game, which both rank 10th – leaves them subject to limited opportunities by relying solely on power. They also strike out 8.82 times per game, which is the ninth worst rate.

They have five players with nine or more home runs and six hitters with double-digit doubles. Joc Pederson has 17 home runs while Wilmer Flores has 47 runs scored and 53 RBIs, which are all team bests.

Mike Yastrzemski has 20 doubles. Luis Gonzalez has made the most of his at bats with a .282 average, 13 doubles, 26 RBIs, and 20 runs scored in 56 games.

The pitching staff has been solid and has the opposite issue of the offense. They are 14th, allowing 4.29 runs per game, but have done a good job of limiting opponents’ power. Opposing teams have a .688 OPS (ninth), and a 0.78 home runs per game is the best in baseball.

Yet they allow teams to hit .251, the eighth-worst rate, meaning heightened baserunners leading to a potential for big innings. Their 8.40 strikeout rate is 18th, so there isn’t a lot of power pitching.

Still, getting to the backend of the bullpen is key, with Jarlin Garcia and John Brebbia combining for a lefty/righty combo and Camilo Doval saving 12 out of 14 opportunities. All three have a sub-3.00 Earned Run Average.

Dodgers’ depth continuing to show

The Dodgers currently have 14 players out for an extended period of time. Two of their All-Stars – Tony Gonsolin and Tyler Anderson – were piggy-backing starts to begin the year and now are a combined 21-1 with a 2.02 and 2.96 ERA, respectively. Former top prospect Gavin Lux, utility men Hanser Alberto and Edwin Rios have had their moments under the stars.

It’s remarkable how the Dodgers continually have this depth that allows them to play among the best in baseball.

Statistically speaking, they start the second half with the second-best offense and pitching staff. The pitching staff is allowing 3.29 runs per game with a mix of starters who can go deep and a bullpen who can bridge to the backend. They are third, allowing an opposing batting average of .217 and opposing OPS of .634. They also strike out 8.96 hitters, which ranks eighth.

Yency Almonte and Evan Phillips have sub-2 ERAs, while Caleb Ferguson has not allowed a run in nine innings this season. Dakota Hudson had a 2.22 ERA and was five for six in save opportunities before suffering a season-ending injury. Craig Kimbrel is 15 for 18 but has had some struggles with a 4.35 ERA. Still, the backend of the bullpen has been strong.

Offensively they are scoring 5.18 runs per game with the fifth-best batting average of .255 and second-best OPS of .770. They are league average at avoiding strikeouts, averaging 8.47 per game (14th). They are sixth at hitting 1.30 home runs per contest.

The big three of Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts have been solid all year. Freeman has 31 doubles, Betts 63 runs scored and 20 home runs, and Turner 68 RBIs and 17 stolen bases – all of which lead the team. Mix in Justin Turner’s improvements with Will Smith, and the Dodgers lineup has hit a different level.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers Picks and Predictions

  • Despite Rodon’s strong performances, bookies are favoring the Dodgers, surely because they’re more of a sure thing with their offense. Still, the run line indicates it’ll be a close game, and the Giants aren’t huge underdogs as is.
  • Eight runs seems more likely to go over. But the combined run total between Rodon’s two starts against the Dodgers is six, so it’s hard to count on him giving up a lot of runs.
  • The Dodgers’ dominance of the NL West, even losing the division to the Giants last season, they had 107 wins, is hard to ignore. But the pitching matchup favors the Giants, and if they can scratch a couple runs across, Rodon should be able to turn it over to the backend of the bullpen to close it out. We’ll go Giants +128.

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