MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds Odds, Picks and Predictions

It’s a great day for a twin bill between National League Central Division rivals. The Pittsburgh Pirates visit the Cincinnati Reds for a doubleheader before heading their separate ways for a weekend series. The first game is at 2:10 p.m. ET, with the second game following at 7:10 p.m. ET, for which odds aren’t yet listed as of this writing.

The Pirates split a series with the New York Yankees but are coming off a 16-0 loss, which included position player Josh VanMeter allowing six earned runs in the ninth inning.

Roansy Contreras looks to give them length out of his start. The young right hander is 2-2 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.45 WHIP (Walks, Hits per Innings Pitched). The Pirates are 3-5 in his starts, and the over/under is 2-6. He allowed seven earned runs in a 19-2 loss to the Brewers on July 1 but otherwise had allowed one earned run or less in three separate starts through June.

Veteran left hander Mike Minor will oppose him for the Reds. He is 1-5 with a 6.82 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. The Reds are 1-5 in his starts, and the over/under is 3-2. He’s coming off his best start of the season, allowing two earned runs on six hits in a 9-1 loss to Atlanta.

Bryse Wilson is the listed probably for the Pirates in Game 2, while the Reds have yet to announce a second starter.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds Match Info

Location: Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, Ohio

Date: Thursday, July 7, 2022

Time: 2:10 p.m. ET

TV: ATT Sports Net Pitt, Bally Sports Ohio

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds Odds

Odds are listed in moneyline, run line and over/under order:

  • BetOnline – Pirates -105, Reds -105; Pirates -1.5 (+145), Reds +1.5 (-165); 9
  • Bovada – Pirates -110, Reds -110; Pirates -1.5 (+145), Reds +1.5 (-170); 9
  • MyBookie – Pirates -110, Reds -110; Pirates -1.5 (+145), Reds +1.5 (-170); 9
  • BetUS – Pirates -105, Reds -105; Pirates -1.5 (+145), Reds +1.5 (-165); 9
  • BetNow – Pirates -105, Reds -105; Pirates -1.5 (+150), Reds +1.5 (-170); 9

The best value for this game is on the moneyline, with each sportsbook offering a pick ‘em. If there is strong conviction toward the Pirates, the run line is the way to go with solid profit margins offered should they win by two or more runs.

The over/under offers different odds for the over or under, but those vary by the sportsbook.

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Betting Trends

  • The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Cincinnati
  • The over is 7-3-1 across the last 11 meetings regardless of location
  • The Reds are 20-6 over the last 26 meetings in Cincinnati
  • The Pirates are 9-21 against the Reds in the last 30 games, regardless of location
  • Public bettors favor the Pirates at 61% of public bets
  • Public bets show that 57% of bettors are on the over
  • The Pirates are 34-39-8 on over/unders and 13-25 away from home this season
  • The Reds are 43-35-3 on over/unders and 14-27 at home this season

Youth infusion fueling Pirates

Ownership has not invested in the Pirates, which has frustrated a passionate sports town. It has thrown their top prospects to the wolves by allowing them to get valuable experience. Among them is Jack Suwinski, who has a .786 OPS with 14 home runs, which is second on the team. O’Neil Cruz is a 6 foot 7 shortstop who has impressed with his arm and had 13 RBIs in 16 games with four doubles and three home runs, scoring eight runs.

So while Pittsburgh is a bottom-five team, there is something worth watching. Offensively they are the third-worst team, scoring 3.75 runs per game, posting a .221 batting average and .660 OPS. They also strike out at the second-worst rate of 9.37 times per game. But when they score, it is usually on a home run, averaging 1.12 per contest.

Veteran Daniel Vogelbach and promising outfielder Bryan Reynolds provide some leadership. Reynolds leads the team with a .260 batting average, 38 runs scored, 15 home runs, 32 RBIs, and 38 runs scored. He also has ten doubles (second).

The pitching still isn’t there, though. They allow 5.39 runs per game, the fourth-worst mark, along with opponents posting a .260 batting average and .767 OPS.

Reds’ quarterly reviews are good

There’s a saying that it’s a long season, and each team is guaranteed 60 wins and 60 losses, and what they do with the other 42 games is what decides playoff races. It looked bleak at the beginning for the Reds, who started 3-22 but are since 25-31.

Part of that has been getting healthy. Nick Senzel has provided a spark, and Joey Votto’s presence is a welcome sight after each dealt with injuries.

The Reds’ offense is decent, scoring 4.37 runs per game, ranking 18th. They have a .238 batting average, which is 21st, but struggle with power, ranking 25th with a .682 OPS.

Brandon Drury is having a breakout season with 15 doubles and a team-high of 17 home runs, 45 RBIs, and 50 runs scored while hitting .270 with a .856 OPS. Tommy Pham has 11 home runs and 48 runs scored. Kyle Farmer has seemingly got hot, hitting .283 with a .768 OPS. He has a team-best 17 doubles.

Tyler Stephenson’s return is nearing as he’s questionable with a thumb injury. The catcher is hitting for a team-best .305 average and has a .832 OPS in 141 at bats. Also, questionable Thursday are Votto (back) and reigning Rookie of the Year Jonathan Indiana (ankle).

The pitching staff is among the worst in baseball, allowing 5.71 runs per game. The opponents collectively hit .260, ranking 26th, and have a .793 OPS, the worst allowed by a pitching staff.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds Picks and Predictions

  • Oddsmakers appropriately consider this a toss-up. Neither team has a great pitcher going or have a bullpen that separates itself. If there is anything to glean from the moneyline, it’s that the Reds having a better offense is canceled out by Minor’s struggles this season.
  • Nine runs seem light for two of the four worst pitching staffs matching up, but neither team is great at putting the ball in play. The Pirates would have to match the Reds offensively, and opposing Minor gives them that opportunity.
  • It’s hard to lean in one direction but the Reds not having to travel and having a better offense is the deciding factor in taking their moneyline.

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