MLB

Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres Odds, Picks, and Predictions

The San Diego Padres are leading the NL West entering a pivotal series for the Philadelphia Phillies, who sit 8.5 games back in the NL East and are currently projected to miss the playoffs. San Diego (44-27) is tied with the perennial favorite Los Angeles Dodgers, who wraps up with the Cincinnati Reds before a trip against the defending champion Atlanta Braves.

The Padres have been a top 10 team offensively and defensively this season, while the Phillies have one of the league’s best offenses, yet have struggled pitching. One of San Diego’s best gets the ball.

Righty Joe Musgrove is 8-0 with a 1.59 ERA, this season and 81 strikeouts in 79 innings pitched. He’s locked in allowing three earned runs over his last five starts, tallying 34 innings in that span. The Padres are 9-1 in his starts, and the over/under is 5-5.

Southpaw Ranger Suarez will oppose him for Philadelphia. Suarez is 5-4 with a 4.43 ERA, and 54 strikeouts in 65 innings pitched. He’s in his best stretch of the season, allowing two earned runs a start in each of his last three outings. But he has three losses and two no-decisions in his last five, in large part because the Phillies’ run support hasn’t been there. They are 5-5 with Suarez on the mound, and the over is 7-3.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Match Info

Location: Petco Park, San Diego, California

Date: Thursday, June 23, 2022

Time: 9:40 p.m. ET

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Bally Sports San Diego

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Odds

Odds are listed in moneyline, run line and over/under order:

  • BetOnline – Phillies +130, Padres -141; Phillies +1.5 (-165), Padres -1.5 (+145); 7
  • Bovada – Phillies +126, Padres -150; Phillies +1.5 (-165), Padres -1.5 (+140); 7
  • MyBookie – Phillies +125, Padres -145; Phillies +1.5 (-170), Padres -1.5 (+145); 7
  • BetUS – Phillies +127, Padres -142; Phillies +1.5 (-165), Padres -1.5 (+145); 7
  • BetNow – Phillies +131, Padres -141; Phillies +1.5 (-165), Padres -1.5 (+145); 7

The best moneyline odds on the Phillies are at BetNow, and the Padres are split between BetOnline and BetNow. Though the run line odds are even everywhere except for MyBookie for Phillies +1.5. Same for the Padres -1.5, except Bovada is the outlier. The over/under odds are mixed and matched, but there aren’t any hooks as of this writing.

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Betting Trends

Bettors are favoring the Padres with 79% of bets against the spread on the home team. Then 59% believe the over will cash.

Trends show the under is 5-1 over the last six games these two teams meet. But the over is 20-7 in the last 27 games between the two in San Diego.

Straight up, the Phillies are 39-18 against the Padres over the last 57 games. Though across the last 10, the teams are 5-5 against each other. The under is 8-2 in those last 10 meetings.

Phillies Need Run Support

Philadelphia is in a tough spot to open the series with the pitching matchup. The offense has to attack a Cy Young candidate, having lost four of the last five starts by Suarez. Though the good news for Phillies fans is offense is their favorite team’s strength.

The Phillies are scoring 4.83 runs per game, the sixth-best mark across Major League Baseball. They are hitting .247, ranking 12th, with a .732 OPS, ranking ninth. The strikeouts are elevated at 8.65 per contest, nearing the bottom third of the league, but that comes with great power.

Bryce Harper is following up his Most Valuable Player season with another MVP campaign. He’s hitting .326 with 21 doubles, 15 home runs, 48 RBIs, and 48 runs scored. He’s first in all those but runs and home runs, sitting behind Kyle Schwarber’s 49 and 19, respectively. Rhys Hoskins has 13 doubles and 13 home runs. Nicholas Castellanos has 17 doubles and 36 RBIs, one behind Hoskins.

The pitching staff, however, has had well-documented struggles. They are 19th in baseball, allowing 4.43 runs per game. On par with that, opponents are hitting .242 (18th) with a .698 OPS (15th). Though Phillies pitchers do strike out 9.04 hitters per game, ranking seventh.

If they can get a lead, Philadelphia has Seranthony Dominguez and Brad Hand to bridge to Corey Knebel, who is 11 for 15 in save opportunities this season.

Always sunny in San Diego

Aside from great weather, residents of San Diego have great baseball to watch, finally. The Padres had been spending to get to the point of contention, and that moment is finally here, despite taking an extra year or two for it to all come together.

It is largely because they have a top 10 offense and defense. Musgrove is one of the reasons for great Padres pitching, which is top 4 in baseball. They allow 3.73 runs per game (fourth), a .220 opposing batting average (third), and a .638 OPS (fourth). They are 10th in striking out 8.84 hitters per game.

The offense is ninth at scoring 4.75 runs per game, and largely do it without home runs. They hit 0.9 per game, ranking 24th. Their average is .245 (14th), and they have a .707 OPS (16th), so there is room to improve, but they are manufacturing runs.

Manny Machado got off to a fast pace and is keeping it up, hitting .328 with 17 doubles, 12 home runs, 48 runs scored, and 46 RBIs. He is one double behind Jake Cronenworth for the team lead but otherwise leads those other categories. Jurickson Profar has 26 extra-base hits with 16 doubles. He’s scored 46 runs, and Cronenworth has 45 runs scored.

Acquiring Taylor Rogers has been a great addition as he’s closed down 21 games in 24 save opportunities. Nabil Crismatt has a 1.35 ERA to lead the staff. 

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions

  • While the moneyline favors the Padres, it isn’t as large as one would expect with one of the top pitchers in baseball starting. That is attractive to the naked eye, despite the potent Phillies offense. But the ball doesn’t travel as well in San Diego, especially as the temperature cools.
  • Seven is always a tricky number. Looking at the May series in Philadelphia alone, the under is worth a look. There were three shutouts, and the under hit each time, with neither team scoring more than three runs.
  • The best bet is to go with the known commodity. Musgrove has been strong in the first half of seasons, including last year, though this is the most difficult offense he’s faced. We’ll take the Padres moneyline -141.

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