Odds, Picks and Predictions

  • The Philadelphia Phillies are 80-80 against the run line this season. 
  • The Houston Astros are 85-75 against the run line this year.
  • The Phillies are 41-38 against the run line when playing on the road. 
  • The Astros are 40-39 against the run line when playing at their home field. 
  • Philadelphia is 32-20 against the run line as an underdog.
  • Houston is 69-70 against the run line as a favorite.

The Philadelphia Phillies (87-74) and Houston Astros (105-56) will go head-to-head in a Wednesday night interleague affair. 

The Phillies’ three-game win streak came to an end after losing to the Astros. But they likely don’t mind, as they clinched their first postseason berth in 10 years on Monday. 

This series is now split, heading into Wednesday. Both the Astros and Phillies are already headed to the playoffs, so there is not much on the line. Nevertheless, every team wants to end the regular season with a victory. 

Wednesday’s matchup should be a good one. 

The first pitch is scheduled for 4:10 PM EST on Wednesday, October 5th, at Minute Maid Park in Houston, TX. 

Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros Odds

Teams Moneyline Total Run Line
Philadelphia Phillies +158 O/7.5 +1.5
Houston Astros -172 U/7.5 -1.5

The Astros enter this ball game as favorites. Houston is rarely not favored at home, and that narrative will remain the same heading into Wednesday. 

The Astros have found success against the run line in 2022, while Philadelphia has been fairly mediocre against it. The Phillies’ 32-20 against the run line record as an underdog stands out ahead of Wednesday’s contest. 

This is a team that has the capability of upsetting the odds. But can they upset the Astros in this affair?

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Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros Betting Preview

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

Philadelphia was not at their best in Tuesday’s 10-0 defeat. Their pitching stumbled, and their lineup was unable to get nothing going. 

Houston carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning before the Phillies finally got themselves a single. They ended up with three hits and no runs in a forgettable effort at the plate. 

As aforementioned, they likely could care less about Wednesday’s loss. Sure, losing 10-0 is obviously not a favorable outcome. But Philadelphia accomplished their goal of reaching the playoffs, and that is what matters. 

The Phillies are sixth in batting average, seventh in OBP, fifth in slugging percentage, seventh in runs scored, and sixth in home runs this season. Meanwhile, their pitching staff is 17th in team ERA, 11th in WHIP, fourth in home runs allowed, and 14th in batting average against. 

Philadelphia will need their pitching to step up in the postseason if they want to make any kind of run. Offensively, this is a team capable of getting deep into October. 

The Phillies will send Bailey Falter (6-4, 3.90) to the mound on Wednesday. Falter has pitched fairly well in 2022 but will certainly face a difficult opponent in Houston. 

Houston Astros Preview

The Astros got the job done on Tuesday at home. 

Justin Verlander set the tone with five no-hit innings while striking out ten and walking one. Dusty Baker wanted to keep him fresh for the playoffs, so he pulled Verlander after five innings. 

But with the way he was looking, Verlander very well may have been on his way to a no-hitter. 

The bullpen followed Verlander with four shutout innings. 

Offensively, Houston was in full force. Jeremy Pena, Kyle Tucker, and Martin Maldonado all homered in the ball game. Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez added three hits apiece. 

On the season, the Astros’ offense is 13th in batting average, seventh in OBP, seventh in slugging percentage, eighth in runs scored, and fourth in home runs. On the pitching side of the equation, they are second in team ERA, second in WHIP, second in home runs against, and second in batting average against. 

To summarize, the lineup is very good, and their pitching rotation is elite. This is unquestionably a dangerous ball club. 

Speaking of good pitching, Framber Valdez (16-6, 2.89) will get the start on Wednesday. Valdez is arguably MLB’s most underrated pitcher. He would be the ace on most teams and still does not get nearly enough respect. 

Injury Report

For the Phillies, Brad Hand was placed on the IL last week. Hand is dealing with an elbow injury and is scheduled to face hitters for a live batting practice session on Wednesday. The Phillies are hopeful he can return for the NL Wild Card series, which begins on Friday.

 The Astros are mostly healthy heading into this game and the playoffs. 

Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros Picks and Predictions

Should you place your money on the favored Astros, or can the Phillies pull off the upset in the regular season finale?

For Philadelphia, it has been a completely different tale of two stories in this series. Who knows how they will perform on Wednesday? 

Their offense may struggle against Valdez for Houston. The left-hander has been electric all season and likely wants to close out his season on a high note. 

Meanwhile, the Astros’ lineup should be able to produce enough run support. I like the Astros on the moneyline. 

As for the run line, this should be a more competitive affair than the blowout we saw on Tuesday. With that being said, the Astros should still be able to win by three or four runs against the Phillies. 

In what should be a fairly exciting regular-season finale, the Astros are the pick to click.

The Pick: 

Go ahead and take the Houston Astros -1.5 in this Wednesday’s contest. 

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