Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians MLB Betting Analysis, Odds & Picks

The Cleveland Guardians are taking advantage of the opportunities in front of them and are performing as a team in the top third of the league. One of baseball’s surprises hosts the Oakland Athletics, who dealt key pitchers in the offseason to shave costs and are paying the price. The two teams meet to open up a four-game series at 7:10 p.m. ET on Thursday at Progressive Field in Cleveland.

The Guardians (26-26) have played better than their record suggests and still are second in the AL Central, sitting four games behind the Minnesota Twins. They send Konnor Pilkington to the mound for the series opener. Pilkington 1-0 with a 2.65 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 17 innings pitched. He threw five scoreless innings, striking out eight in a 4-0 win over the Kansas City Royals.

Oakland (20-38) is already 16.5 games behind the Houston Astros in the AL West and will be competing for the draft’s top pick next year. They start once prized prospect James Kaprielian, who is 0-3 with a 6.06 ERA. He has allowed 13 earned runs in 14.2 innings pitched over his last three starts alone.

Betting Analysis for Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians

Oakland Athletics Betting Stats & Analysis

The Athletics have lost eight straight games and 11 of their last 12 in a woeful two-week stretch. The over is 6-4-2 in that stretch.

During the losing streak, they are scoring 1.8 runs per game and allowing 5.8 runs per contest. They’ve scored more than two runs just once, in a 5-4 loss to the Astros on June 1.

For the season, though, Oakland has arguably the worst offense. They are second-last in scoring 3.3 runs per game. They are the worst team in average (.210) and OPS (.595). If there is a hitter for Cleveland to avoid, perhaps it is Sean Murphy, who has 14 doubles, one triple, and five home runs. Seth Brown has 10 doubles and five home runs. Chad Pinder also has five home runs. Ramon Laureano is hitting a team-high .268 with seven doubles since his suspension ended.

The pitching staff has fared fine compared to losing Sean Manaea and others via trade. They are 22nd in allowing 4.62 runs per game and allowing an opposing average of .249 and OPS of .728 rank 23rd and 22nd, respectively.

Cleveland Guardians Betting Stats & Analysis

The Guardians are winners of seven of their last nine games in a softer part of their schedule, which was a sweep of the Royals and series wins over the Orioles and Rangers. The over/under was 4-4-1 in that stretch. They scored five runs per game during that period and allowed 2.8 per contest.

Their offense has performed admirably, ranking ninth in runs per game at 4.68, 11th in average at .246, and are the top team at avoiding strikeouts, doing so 7.02 times per contest. If there was anywhere to improve, it is their power numbers.

Cleveland goes as its MVP candidate does. Jose Ramirez is hitting .286 with a 1.000 OPS, 13 doubles, four triples, 14 home runs, a league-best 54 RBIs, and 34 runs scored. He clearly isn’t alone, though. Myles Star has a team-high 38 runs scored. Andres Gimenez is hitting a team-high .310. Owen Miller leads the team with 14 doubles.

The pitching has been there, too. They are 11th, allowing 4.09 runs per game, fifth in opposing average (.224), and sixth in opposing OPS (.659).

Other than Emmanuel Clase, the bullpen doesn’t have name recognition, but the backend has been very good in support of Shane Bieber, Cal Quantrill, Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, and Co.

Franmil Reyes remains out indefinitely, and reliever James Karinchak is still a few weeks away from rehabbing and rejoining the big league club.

Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians MLB Betting Trends

As one might suspect, bettors heavily favor the Guardians, with 74% of total bets on the home team. However, 55% are on the over, which is surprising only because of how Pilkington performed against a better offense in the Royals. Perhaps they’re considering how bad Kaprielian has been over his last three outings in particular, but at some point, there has to be some positive regression to his 4.07 ERA he had last season.

Other trends worth noting are the Athletics are 8-0 in the last eight games in Cleveland. The under is 34-16-3 over the last 53 meetings in Cleveland and 50-23-4 regardless of location in the last 77 games the A’s and Guardians have played.

Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians MLB Betting Odds

The odds don’t really vary across the different sportsbooks, so finding the best that suits your needs isn’t that difficult if you’re looking just to bet this game once—no need to chase across different offerings.

Here’s a look at the latest odds at various sportsbooks listed by each team’s moneyline, run line and the over/under:

BetUS – A’s +155, Guardians -175; A’s +1.5 (-135), Guardians -1.5 (+115); 8.5

MyBookie – A’s +155, Guardians -185; A’s +1.5 (-130), Guardians -1.5 (+110); 8.5

Bovada – A’s +146, Guardians -178; A’s +1.5 (-130), Guardians -1.5 (+110); 8.5

BetNow – A’s +160, Guardians -170; A’s +1.5 (-130), Guardians -1.5 (+110); 8.5

BetOnline – A’s +160, Guardians -174; A’s +1.5 (-135), Guardians -1.5 (+115); 8.5

Where to find the best betting odds online?

For the Oakland moneyline, BetNow and BetOnline are each +160. Guardians moneyline is best at BetNow at -170. The run line is pretty consistent with MyBookie, Bovada, and BetNow all offering -130 for Oakland to cover the +1.5. Meanwhile, BetUs and BetOnline are +115 for Cleveland to win by two or more. All have the over/under at 8.5, so there won’t be much variation on payouts.

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How to bet on New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins – Betting Lines (Spread, Totals, Moneyline) Betting Example

To best determine the payouts, we’ll use a $100 unit as an example for quick math. But you can use however little or much you feel comfortable with. It’s your money at the end of the day.

If you favor the Athletics, a $100 bet at +160 odds would mean an A’s win would give you a profit of $160 and a total payout of $260. A bet on Cleveland at -130 means you’d have to bet $130 to get a $100 profit and a total payout of $230 total.

The run line means a bet on the A’s wins if they lose by one run or win. A run line bet on the Guardians means they must win by two or more runs.

A bet on the over means the two teams must combine for nine runs for you to win. A bet on the under means the total runs scored between the two teams must be eight or fewer. 

OBS Betting Picks for Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians MLB

Kaprielian has not pitched well, and we don’t expect him to keep Cleveland hitters off balance. With Pilkington coming off a strong start his last time out, even if it is four innings with a lead to get to that bullpen, it should give the Guardians confidence to close the deal out. 

Their potent offense has been strong all season, so we like the moneyline, and we’ll take them at plus money on the run line, too. 

Now that you have all the information you need to place an informed bet, it is time to start increasing your income.

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