MLB

New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins MLB Betting Analysis, Odds & Picks

The red-hot New York Yankees are looking to build off an impressive series-opening win in MLB Game 2 as they visit the Minnesota Twins for a 7:40 p.m. ET game on Wednesday at Target Field.

The Yankees have built a seven-game lead in the ever-competitive AL East by racing out to a 40-15 record, including on a seven-game winning streak.

Minnesota has also surprised some teams, despite making a splash and signing Carlos Correa, acquiring Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez to beef up the offense. The Twins (32-25) lead the AL Central by four games ahead of the preseason favorites, the Chicago White Sox.

Nestor Cortes Jr. draws the start for the Yankees. The southpaw is 5-1 with a 1.50 ERA and has 68 strikeouts to 14 walks in 60 innings pitched. He has four straight wins, and three of those include seven strikeouts.

Chris Archer is off to his best start since 2015, his fourth season with the Rays. He’s 0-2 with a 3.89 ERA in his return from a season-ending injury a year ago.

Archer pitched five innings for the first time this season in his last start against the Tigers, allowing one run. He has less control over it, but the Twins are 4-6 when he starts.

Betting analysis for New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins

New York Yankees Betting Stats & Analysis

The Yankees are top five in both offense and pitching, which has been their Achilles heel in years past.

They are the best pitching staff in baseball, holding teams to 2.91 runs per game, a .212 average, .598 OPS, and 0.71 home runs per game — all of which are No. 1 in baseball. Their 9.19 strikeouts per game is fifth.

They’ve given up four runs in each of their past two games but, prior to that, had back-to-back shutouts and three runs allowed over five games. Their offense is scoring 6.86 runs per game during that seven-game winning streak.

That’s above their offensive average of 4.88 runs per game, which is fifth. They are second in OPS at .752 and first in home runs per game, averaging 1.51 per contest.

Closer Aroldis Chapman is still out, but Clay Holmes is having a breakout season and has been effective filling into the closer’s role. It’s been an important development with veterans Zack Britton, Chad Green, and Jonathan Loisiga also missing time.

Minnesota Twins Betting Stats & Analysis

The Twins’ pitching has been above average this season to power them to a surprising start. They are 10th, allowing 4.06 runs per game but are average at limiting baserunners and opposing power.

They are 15th in opponents’ average, 16th in opposing OPS, 23rd in opposing home runs allowed, and 16th in strikeouts.

Over their last nine, though, the Twins are giving up 5.78 runs per game, including 10 in Tuesday’s game against the Yankees and 12 in Saturday’s loss to Toronto, who they took the three-game series from.

Offensively they are 15th, scoring 4.44 runs per game and seventh in average at .249, and 10th in OPS at .725. Urshela is hitting .274, and Sanchez has 13 doubles and seven home runs.

Correa is slow starting due to missing time with an injury, but he’s hitting .279 with nine doubles in 35 games. Byron Buxton has also been hampered by injuries but has a team-high 12 home runs in 40 games. 

Correa is probable with an illness on Wednesday. The Twins have a shopping list of pitchers on the injured list or with designations.

In total, 11 pitchers are missing time, whether for a few days or a longer duration, like Kenta Maeda, Chris Paddack, and Sonny Gray. Prospect Royce Lewis and veteran slugger Miguel Sano are also out.

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New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins MLB Betting Trends

The Yankees are 8-2 over the last 10 and 5-2 against the run line over the last seven starts (wins by two or more runs). The over has hit four times in that span, including in three of their last four games. New York is 17-8 on the road.

The Twins are 4-6 over their last 10, with the over hitting seven times, including in four straight games. Minnesota is 17-12 at home.

New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins MLB Betting Odds

All of the sportsbooks listed below heavily favor the Yankees, which is best told with the consistent odds and not doubling or better to win by two or more runs on the run line.

Here’s a look at the latest odds at various sportsbooks listed by each team’s moneyline, run line, and the over/under:

  • BetUS – Yankees -170, Twins +150; Yankees -1.5 (-105), Twins +1.5 (-115); 9
  • MyBookie – Yankees -170, Twins +145; Yankees -1.5 (+100), Twins +1.5 (-120); 8.5
  • Bovada – Yankees -170, Twins +141; Yankees -1.5 (-105), Twins +1.5 (-115); 9
  • BetNow – Yankees -162, Twins +152; Yankees -1.5 (even), Twins +1.5 (-120); 9
  • BetOnline – Yankees -168, Twins +155; Yankees -1.5 (-108), Twins +1.5 (-112); 9

Where to find the best betting odds online?

The best moneyline odds for the Yankees are at BetNow and for the Twins at BetOnline. The best run line odds are at MyBookie for the Yankees and BetOnline for the Twins.

How to bet on New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins – Betting Lines (Spread, Totals, Moneyline) Betting Example

Betting the moneylines can be tricky to determine payouts. We’ll use a $100 unit since it is best for explaining. With the Yankees favored at -170, that means you’d have to bet $170 to make $100 in profit (and receive the money you bet back, too) with a New York victory. While a $100 bet on the Twins +150 and a Twins win means you’d receive $250 total and a $150 profit.

The run line means the Yankees must win by two or more runs if you’re betting Yankees -1.5 regardless of odds. A bet on the Twins +1.5 means the Twins must lose a one-run game or win to cover.

The over/under can be a push if betting at 9. An “under” bet means a win comes with eight runs scored or less. An “over” bet means a win comes with ten or more runs. If it is a total of nine, you will get your money back.

OBS Betting Picks for New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins

It’s possible that Cortes regresses, but he has been locked in. A Twins lineup featuring many righties is enough to cause some concern, plus the run line odds, which really don’t give an incentive to bet the Twins.

On the flip side, Archer not pitching deep into games yet means an already taxed Twins bullpen is due for extra work on Wednesday.

Reluctantly, we’ll take the red hot Yankees on the moneyline and run line.

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