New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies MLB Betting Analysis, Picks

The New York Mets (18-9) and Philadelphia Phillies (11-14) will go head-to-head in a Thursday night affair to kick off a weekend four-game series. 

The Mets are amongst the best teams in baseball. Their offense has been terrific, and the pitching has stepped up in Jacob deGrom’s absence. One can only imagine how good this team can be once they get the best pitcher in baseball back.

The Phillies had high expectations entering the season, but it has been a frustrating opening month for them. Philadelphia has currently lost four of their last five games, and they sit in fourth place in the NL East. 

The first pitch is scheduled for 6:45 P.M. EST on Thursday, May 5th, at Citizens Bank Ballpark in Philadelphia, PA. 

Let’s take a look at which team you should place your money on in Game 1 of this series.

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Betting Analysis for New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets Betting Stats & Analysis

The New York Mets are the owners of the best National League record, and they feature the second-best record in the MLB behind only the Yankees. The Mets are playing well and have full confidence heading into this rivalry weekend series. They most recently won a series 2-1 against the defending champion Braves

New York is first in team batting average, first in on-base percentage, and 12th in slugging. On the pitching side, they are fifth in team ERA, second in WHIP, and 2nd in batting average against. This is a very balanced roster that can beat you in a plethora of different ways. 

The only area where Philadelphia has been consistently better is in smashing home runs. The Mets rank just 17th, whereas Philadelphia is eighth in homers. As a result, the Phillies are fourth in slugging. 

So the Phils could realistically out-power the Mets to a win. But in the end, it is about more than the long ball. You have to play a quality brand of baseball in all facets of the game, and that is what New York has done. 

The Mets also haven’t been bad in the home run category. 

They will turn to Taijuan Walker (0-0, 0.00) to get the start in Game 1.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Stats & Analysis

The Phillies have to be growing frustrated. Things are failing to click after they made some major upgrades over the offseason. 

Philadelphia added Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber with complete disregard for their outfield defense but with a strong focus on impacting the lineup. So far, the defense has labored at times, and the offense is still coming around for the team as a whole.

But as we discussed earlier, the home runs have been there. 

Nonetheless, the Phillies are coming off of a series against an underwhelming Texas Rangers team where they were swept by the Rangers at home in a two-game set. It was the type of series they felt could have sparked momentum in their favor had they taken care of business. 

The Phillies currently rank 20th in team ERA, 19th in WHIP, and 21st in batting average. The rotation has failed to meet expectations which has been a major reason for their early-season struggles. 

As expected, the team has hit the ball well. They are 7th in batting average, seventh in runs scored, eighth in homers, 14th in OBP, and fourth in slugging. 

Yes, the pitching has labored. But you have to wonder if their pitching numbers would be better if their defense had more talent. 

Aaron Nola (1-3, 3.90) ERA will aim to change the narrative on Phillies pitchers this season and get the job done on Thursday night.

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies MLB Betting Trends

New York Mets:

  • The Mets are 16-11 against the run line this season.  
  • New York is 9-4 against the run line on the road. 
  • They are 3-1 against the run line when playing as an underdog. 
  • The Mets are 3-0 against the run line as the road underdog. 

Philadelphia Phillies:

  • The Phillies are 11-14 against the run line this year. 
  • Philadelphia is 7-8 against the run line at their home field. 
  • They are 8-11 against the run line when playing as a favorite. 
  • Philadelphia is 7-8 against the run line when playing as the home favorite. 

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies MLB Betting Odds

Despite the Mets’ record, the Phillies open this series as the Game 1 favorites. They are sending an All-Star caliber pitcher to the mound in Aaron Nola, which explains their favored status. But Taijuan Walker is no slouch, and the Mets have found ways to win games this year regardless of the circumstances.

So can they upset the odds on Thursday?

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How to Bet On: New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies MLB – Betting lines

The Mets defeated the Phillies 2-1 last weekend in a three-game series at Citi Field. Philadelphia has a strong chance for redemption at Citizens Bank Park in this four-game set. 

But defeating the Mets is a task that is much easier said than done right now. 

Somehow, someway, I expect the Mets to pull out the win in Game 1. Whether it’s late-game clutch hitting, a strong bullpen performance, or a different factor, roll with New York to upset the odds.

OBS Betting Picks for New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies MLB

Take the New York Mets +1.5 in what projects to be an exciting ballgame in Philadelphia.

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