MLB

New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds Odds, Picks and Predictions

The New York Mets have lost the lead for the best record in the league by a half-game. At 49-30 without aces Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer for much of the season, the Mets have been so impressive with a top offense and strong pitching.

Now they roll into Cincinnati for a three-game series with the Reds, who are playing near .500 ball after a 3-22 start. At 27-51, the Reds have the worst record in the National League.

The two teams meet at 6:40 p.m. ET on Monday at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. New York sends Taijuan Walker to the mound.

He is 6-2 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.17 WHIP (Walks, Hits per Innings Pitched). The Mets are 7-6 in his starts, and the over/under is 3-9. He’s allowed five earned runs over his last four starts.

Promising right hander Hunter Greene gets the ball for the Reds. He is 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. The Reds are 3-12 in his starts, and the over/under is 6-7.

There have only been six starts where Greene has allowed two earned runs or less, and the last came June 11. He’s given up 13 earned runs in his last three starts.

New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds Match Info

Location: Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, Ohio

Date: Monday, July 4, 2022

Time: 6:40 p.m. ET

TV: SNY, Bally Sports Ohio, MLB.tv (free game of the day)

New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds Odds

Odds are listed in moneyline, run line and over/under order:

  • BetOnline – Mets -149, Reds +138; Mets -1.5 (+100), Reds +1.5 (-120); 9.5
  • Bovada – Mets -160, Reds +134; Mets -1.5 (-110), Reds +1.5 (-110); 9.5
  • MyBookie – Mets -170, Reds +145; Mets -1.5 (-110), Reds +1.5 (-110); 9.5
  • BetUS – Mets -152, Reds +137; Mets -1.5 (-105), Reds +1.5 (-115); 9.5
  • BetNow – Mets -150, Reds +140; Mets -1.5 (-105), Reds +1.5 (-115); 9.5

The best moneyline favorites for the Mets, the favorites, are at BetOnline (-149), while the best underdog odds for the Reds are at MyBookie (+145). The top run line odds are at BetOnline for the Mets, at +100 to win by two or more runs.

The Reds’ run lines are best at Bovada and MyBookie at -110 to lose by one run or win outright. The over/under at each book is 9.5 with varying odds on the over and under by the book, but most hover around a pick ’em.

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Betting Trends

  • Public money heavily favors the Mets, with 83% of moneyline bets on them
  • Bettors also like the under, with 55% of bets on the under
  • The under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in Cincinnati
  • It is 3-0-2 in the last five meetings regardless of location
  • Over the last ten games, the under is 5-2-3
  • The Mets are 17-7 in their last 24 visits to Cincinnati
  • The Mets are 33-14 against the Reds over the last 47 meetings, regardless of location
  • Though the Reds are 3-2 in the last five meetings
  • The Mets are 40-33-6 on over/unders and 23-17 straight up away from home
  • The Reds are 41-34-3 on over/unders and 13-25 at home

New York’s budding offense

The Mets score the fourth most runs per game in the league at 4.84 per contest. They also have a .256 batting average, ranking fourth, with an OPS of .725 (13th). Their 7.66 strikeouts per game is the fourth-fewest in the league.

Pete Alonso has powered the Mets with 22 home runs and 69 RBIs while also hitting .276. Starling Marte has scored the most runs with 50 and has 16 doubles.

Jeff McNeil leads in average and doubles at .317 and 18, respectively. Francisco Lindor has had hot and cold streaks but has 12 home runs and 56 RBIs, scoring 46 runs.

Getting production up and down the lineup has been huge for a Mets team that has lacked in that area. Adding Marte and Eduardo Escobar in the offseason and the Lindor trade are finally starting to show fruit.

Max Scherzer is set to return on Tuesday, and Jacob deGrom is nearing his season debut after beginning a rehab assignment on Sunday. That’s a threat to teams as the Mets’ pitching staff has allowed 4.11 runs per game, ranking 10th and the third most strikeouts per game at 9.45 per contest.

Cincinnati’s offense continues to improve

At one point, the Reds struggled to score runs, certainly during their 3-22 start. But they’ve been improving ever since with veteran Joey Votto, young outfielder Nick Senzel, and a host of other players returning to the lineup after dealing with injuries.

The Reds score 4.44 runs per game, ranking 16th, with a .240 batting average (17th) and .685 OPS (23rd). Though they do strike out a lot, averaging 8.82 per contest (22nd).

Brandon Drury has had a season to remember, hitting .270 with 15 doubles, 16 home runs, 42 RBIs, and 48 runs scored, pacing the offense. Tommy Pham has a .755 OPS with 47 runs scored and 11 home runs. Kyle Farmer is heating up as well with a .284 average, .767 OPS, and 16 doubles to go with 39 RBIs.

Where the Reds have struggled is their pitching, allowing the most runs in the league at 5.74 per game. Teams have a batting average of .258 (fourth-worst) against them and a .793 OPS against, the worst rate in the league. Cincinnati does generate 8.94 strikeouts per game, the ninth-best rate.

Luis Castillo has been strong and is a likely trade candidate, and Alexis Diaz has been solid out of the bullpen, but the Reds have otherwise not had anyone who has consistently been good.

New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds Picks and Predictions

  • It wouldn’t be a surprise if more books reach MyBookie’s -170 for the Mets moneyline by gametime. This feels like an overwhelming matchup with the way Greene has been pitching and the consistent greatness of the Mets.
  • That’s especially true given the run lines are basically pick ’ems. The over/under of 9.5 is tricky because Greene can blow up and allow the Mets to score plenty of runs, but reaching a total of 10 is still a fairly high number, as bettors are showing with the majority on the under.
  • Taking the Mets moneyline at -149 is a good number, but there should be some confidence to get the best odds and take their run line.

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