Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians Odds and Picks

  • The Guardians are 22-10 when playing as the moneyline favorite so far this season.
  • The Twins are 12-17 when playing as an underdog this year.
  • The Twins have a 43 percent chance of winning, according to most oddsmakers in this contest.
  • The Guardians have a 61 percent chance of winning, according to most oddsmakers.
  • Cleveland is 38-34 against the run line so far during the 2022 MLB campaign.
  • Minnesota is 35-43 against the run line so far this year.

The Minnesota Twins (43-35) and Cleveland Guardians (38-34) prepare to face off in the Game Five rubber match of their series. This game is scheduled for 1:10 PM EST at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio.

We should be in for a close and exciting MLB match!

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays Odds

TeamsMoneylineTotalRun Line

According to Betonline, the Guardians are the favorites for this ball game. Cleveland’s advantage stems from both home-field advantage and an edge in the pitching matchup. 

The Guardians are sending ace Shane Bieber (3-4, 3.07) to the mound. Meanwhile, Chris Archer (2-3, 3.14) gets the call for Minnesota.

Bieber is a high strikeout pitcher who is no stranger to going deep in games. His velocity has dropped in 2022, but an added emphasis on trusting his breaking pitches has furthered his success. Bieber features some of the nastiest offspeed stuff in MLB.

Archer relies on keeping hitters off-balance and inducing weak contact. He typically goes just four or five innings per game as well. Nonetheless, Archer has enjoyed a solid 2022 campaign.

Both of these teams want to win Game Five. This projects to be a very competitive matchup.

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Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

Let’s break down each team heading into this ball game. 

Minnesota Twins Preview

The Twins have retaken the lead in the AL Central after the Guardians had it last week. But Minnesota leads by just two games, so there is not much in the way of breathing room. 

The Twins kicked off this series with a convincing 11-1 victory. It seemed as if they were destined for a series win following that performance. But the teams split a Tuesday doubleheader before the Guardians shocked the Twins last night in dramatic fashion. 

So Minnesota will have to win on Thursday in order to earn a series win. 

Archer should be able to contain Cleveland’s offense. I would expect four-plus innings of two or three-run ball from the right-hander. 

Minnesota’s pitching staff has been far better than expected. Their 3.70 team ERA ranks eighth in all of baseball. They are also seventh in WHIP. 

The offense ranks within the top 10 as well in batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, and home runs. 

So Minnesota’s all-around balance makes them a difficult team to defeat. But they will be playing as the underdogs in this Thursday afternoon contest. 

Guardians Preview

The Guardians are a resilient bunch, to say the least. Cleveland came into Wednesday’s game having dropped five of their past six games. It seemed as if they were in the midst of a downward spiral. 

And it looked bleak for the Guards entering the bottom of the 10th after their bullpen coughed up three runs in the top half of the inning. An Amed Rosario RBI double made it 6-4 before Steven Kwan scored on a passed ball to make it 6-5. 

And then in stepped Josh Naylor. 

On a two-strike pitch, Naylor lined a shot down the left-field line that was slicing. But the ball cleared the high Progressive Field fence and stayed fair, giving Naylor a walk-off home run and evening the series up at two games apiece. 

Cleveland has seized momentum in the series. The Guardians expect to win after last night’s game and with Bieber on the hill.

However, this is a talented Twins ball club they can’t take for granted. Minnesota is going to come out firing on all cylinders despite Wednesday night’s result. 

But it isn’t surprising to see the Guardians listed as favorites for Game Five.

Injury Report


  • Trevor Larnach underwent surgery Monday and is expected to miss one to two months.
  • Joe Smith is on the 15-day IL.
  • Bailey Ober: Ober is on the verge of returning after playing catch last week. He should be on track to return by early-mid July.


  • Austin Hedges is currently on the 7-day concussion protocol IL.
  • Franmil Reyes has performed well since returning from injury and seems to have no lingering issues. 

Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians and Predictions

I expect Thursday’s game to be exciting and competitive. The atmosphere will likely be electric despite this being a Thursday afternoon affair. Cleveland smells blood in the water and wants to close the gap in the division. 

Shane Bieber will likely go six or seven innings with two or three runs allowed. Look for a fairly low-scoring contest between Cleveland and Minnesota on Thursday. 

I like the under when it comes to the 8.5 over/under total.

But which team should you place your money on?

The Twins undeniably feature upset potential. Their offense has the potential to carry them to victory. But despite Chris Archer’s success this season, he does not work deep into games. 

That means the Twins are going to have to trust their questionable bullpen. And that is when the Guardians will strike. 

It looks like we are in for an exciting match, but it is hard to look past the Guardians here. I like Cleveland as the home favorite for this game. Take a chance on the Guardians, who will be riding high following their improbable Wednesday evening win.

The Pick: Roll with the Cleveland Guardians -1.5 in this Thursday afternoon affair.

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