MLB

Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals Odds, Picks, and Predictions

Both the Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals are playing around .500 ball of late. The two teams meet at 7:45 p.m. ET on Monday to open a three-game series at Busch Stadium in St. Louis.

The Cardinals (41-34) sit one game behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central after losing two of three to the Chicago Cubs over the weekend. The Marlins (33-38) are 12.5 games behind the New York Mets, to who they lost two of three games over the weekend in the NL East.

It should be a solid pitching matchup with Pablo Lopez getting the ball for Miami. He is 5-3 with a 2.61 ERA. Miami is 8-6 in his starts, as is the over/under. Over his last five starts, he’s allowed 12 earned runs, though those came in three starts sandwiched between scoreless outings.

Adam Wainwright appears to be on his farewell tour with the Cardinals, with whom he’s spent his entire 17-season career. This year he is 5-5 with a 3.32 ERA. The Cardinals are 9-5 in his starts, and the over/under is 6-7. Over his last four starts, he’s allowed 13 earned runs.

Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals Match Info

Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, Missouri

Date: Monday, June 27, 2022

Time: 7:45 p.m. ET

TV: Bally Sports Florida, Bally Sports Midwest

Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals Odds

Odds are listed in moneyline, run line and over/under order:

  • BetOnline – Marlins +110, Cardinals -120; Marlins +1.5 (-190), Cardinals -1.5 (+165); 7.5
  • Bovada – Marlins +108, Cardinals -130; Marlins +1.5 (-185), Cardinals -1.5 (+160); 7.5
  • MyBookie – Marlins +115, Cardinals -135; Marlins +1.5 (-180), Cardinals -1.5 (+150); 7.5
  • BetUS – Marlins +111, Cardinals -121; Marlins +1.5 (-190), Cardinals -1.5 (+160); 7.5
  • BetNow – Marlins +113, Cardinals -123; Marlins +1.5 (-180), Cardinals -1.5 (+158); 7.5

The best odds for the Cardinals’ moneyline are at BetOnline (-120), while the best for the Marlins are MyBookie (+115). The top run line odds for the Marlins are split between MyBookie and BetNow at -180.

BetOnline (+165) has the best run line odds for the Cardinals. Meanwhile, all books have the same over/under, though prices may vary slightly.

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Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Trends

  • Miami is 1-8 over the last nine meetings
  • The under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in St. Louis
  • The Marlins are 1-4 in the last five meetings in St. Louis
  • The under is 15-4-2 in the last 21 meetings, regardless of location
  • Bettors favor the Cardinals with 72% of bets on their moneyline
  • Bettors are playing the trends, with 53% betting on the under
  • Miami is 14-22 on the road and 36-33-2 on over/unders this season
  • St. Louis is 22-15 at home and 38-33-4 on over/unders this season

Miami’s best shot

Looking ahead to the rest of the series for a minute, this appears to be the best opportunity for the Marlins to win a series. With Lopez pitching Monday and then ace Sandy Alcantara throwing Wednesday, Miami can steal a pair of wins or even sweep. Right now, they only sit 5.5 games behind a wild card spot.

Their offense has certainly been playoff-caliber, ranking 12th while scoring 4.56 runs per game. They hit .245 (14th) with a .710 OPS (15th).

Jazz Chisholm Jr. leads the team with 14 home runs, 45 RBIs, and 39 runs scored. Garrett Cooper is hitting .307 with 16 doubles, both team highs.

Jorge Soler adds 13 doubles and 13 home runs. Jesus Sanchez has ten home runs. Jesus Aguilar has 12 doubles and nine home runs.

There is firepower up and down the lineup with a good mix of speed. Miami has been a tough matchup for opposing pitchers since their last playoff appearance in 2020.

There is room for improvement with the pitching staff, though Lopez and Alcantara are powering the starters. As a staff, they are allowing 4.34 runs per game, ranking 17th.

Opponents have a batting average of .237 (13th) and OPS of .718 (19th). Marlins pitchers do strike out 8.91 batters per game, ranking ninth.

Playoff bound St. Louis?

The National League is competitive at the top of the playoff race. The best route for the Cardinals is to win the division, but they should be fine either way. They are top-10 in runs scored per game and runs allowed per game.

The offense forecasts much better, scoring 4.82 runs per game (sixth) and hitting .253 (sixth) with a .725 OPS (11th). They don’t strike out as much either, averaging 7.76 punches per game, ranking sixth.

Paul Goldschmidt is on a MVP pace, hitting .337 with 23 doubles, 18 home runs, 62 RBIs — all team highs — and 53 runs scored. Tommy Edman has 17 stolen bases and 55 runs scored to lead the team in those categories.

Harrison Bader ties him with three triples and adds 15 stolen bases. Nolan Arenado has 14 home runs and 49 RBIs. Dealing with injuries, Brendan Donavan has been a welcome addition, hitting .315, as has Juan Yepez, who has eight doubles, seven home runs, and 19 RBIs.

St. Louis allows 4.01 runs per game, ranking seventh. But the surprise is that the pitching staff is allowing opponents to hit .243 (18th) with a .705 OPS (17th), showing a high strand rate and ability to pitch out of jams.

Ryan Helsley has been lights out, essentially assuming high leverage situations. He is 3-0 with a 0.31 ERA, and 39 strikeouts in 28.2 innings pitched. He shares save opportunities with Giovanny Gallegos, who is 2-2 with a 3.21 ERA and nine saves in 13 opportunities.

Genesis Cabrera has a 2.27 ERA in 31.2 innings pitched as a southpaw to throw.

Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Predictions

  • Miami got off to a slow start this season, but it has a prime opportunity to get back on the right track against a Cardinals team that is scuffling a little bit. The pitching lines up in the Marlins’ favor, but will it hold up?
  • Both pitchers have struggled of late, though Lopez is coming off a scoreless outing. With the public on the under, it is probably better to zag, given the recent history with the pitchers. After all, too many unders have hit in the series, right?
  • We’ll look past the season records and take the Marlins moneyline +115 for the best bang for our buck and also take their run line +1.5 (-180).

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