Odds, Picks and Predictions

It could be an emotional evening before and after Luis Castillo toes the rubber for the Cincinnati Reds, with whom he’s spent his entire six-year career with. Wednesday against the Miami Marlins could be his last start in a Reds uniform ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline.

The Reds (37-59) have had their struggles this year – starting the year 3-22 – but will want to capitalize on when he pitches against a Marlins (46-51) team still hopeful to track down a playoff spot.

Castillo is 3-4 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.08 WHIP (Walks, Hits per Innings Pitched) this season. The Reds are 7-6 when he starts, and the over/under is 4-9. It’s par for the course for Castillo, who is having a career year and has dropped his lifetime ERA to 3.62.

Opposing him is southpaw Braxton Garrett, who is 2-3 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The Marlins are 5-4 in his starts, and the over/under is 2-7.

Over his last four starts, he’s allowed five runs and pitched into the sixth inning or deeper on each account. He also has 18 strikeouts in his last two starts, allowing four hits, though both coming against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds Match Info

Location: Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, Ohio

Date: Wednesday, July 27, 2022

Time: 6:40 p.m. ET

TV: Bally Sports Florida, Bally Sports Ohio

Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds Odds

Odds are listed in moneyline, run line, and over/under order:

  • BetOnline – Marlins +135, Reds -146; Marlins +1.5 (-155), Reds -1.5 (+135); 8
  • Bovada – Site under maintenance at the time of writing
  • MyBookie – Marlins +135, Reds -160; Marlins +1.5 (-150), Reds -1.5 (+130); 8
  • BetUS – Marlins +132; Reds -147; Marlins +1.5 (-155), Reds -1.5 (+135); 8
  • BetNow – Marlins +133, Reds -143; Marlins +1.5 (-155), Reds -1.5 (+135); 8

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The odds are all fairly similar, with the best Marlins moneyline odds at BetOnline and MyBookie at +135. The best Reds moneyline odds are at BetNow at -143.

The run line odds are pretty consistent with MyBookie the best for Miami +1.5 (-150). Three books give the Reds +135 odds to cover -1.5.

The over/under is eight runs across the board, typically with even lines whether someone wants the over or under.

Betting Trends

  • The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings
  • In the last eight meetings in Cincinnati, the under is 6-2
  • The Reds are 36-16 in the last 52 meetings in Cincinnati
  • The Marlins are 4-12 in the last 16 meetings regardless of location
  • The series is split with each favorite winning and the over/under split as well
  • Data show the public favor the Reds with 73% of bets on their moneyline
  • Then 52% of bets are on the under
  • Miami is 46-48-3 on over/unders and 24-28 away from home this season
  • The Reds are 50-43-3 on over/unders and 21-30 at home this season

Can Miami pitch its way to a win?

One of the better developments for the Marlins is how well their pitching is developing, and they don’t even have potential ace Jesus Luzardo back yet. It helps to have Cy Young candidate Sandy Alcantara dominating every bump day and Pablo Lopez trying to match him, but guys like Garrett have been a pleasant surprise and show a pitching pipeline is developing.

The Marlins are 12th, allowing 4.29 runs per game, and ninth with an opposing batting average of .235 and opposing OPS of .707 (15th). They also strike out the 11th most hitters per game with 8.9 per contest. It’s also impressive that they’ve continued this rate with 11 pitchers missing significant time.

Unfortunately for the Fish, their offense hasn’t been there, which is the difference between their 2020 playoff run during the shortened season and this year. They rank 24th with 4.07 runs per game. Their .238 batting average is 21st, and .677 OPS is 27th.

Jesus Aguilar’s power numbers are down and Jorge Soler – one year removed from hitting 27 homers and two years removed from hitting 48 – only has 13 home runs, which leads active players.

It doesn’t help that Jazz Chisholm Jr. is out till September if they bring him back. Their blossoming star and heartbeat has ten doubles, four triples, 14 home runs, 45 RBIs, and 39 runs scored – the last three all-team highs.

In the short term, the Marlins are playing in a hitter’s park and power plays to all fields in Cincinnati, so if they can capitalize on Castillo’s mistakes, they give themselves a great chance to win.

Cincinnati set up for damage

Castillo has been great all season, and the backend of the bullpen with Alexis Diaz could be a two-pitcher mix to get a victory home if Castillo can pitch deep enough into the game.

That would buck a trend of poor pitching all season for the Reds, who allow the second most runs per game at 5.5 per contest. Opponents have a .256 batting average against (25th) and OPS of .782 (29th). Plus, the home run rate against them is 1.41 per game, also second worst and playing into the hitter’s park that Cincinnati is.

Conversely, that means the Reds’ offense can do damage, and they’ve played well this season when healthy. The Reds are scoring 4.48 runs per game, ranking a league average 15th. However, they have a .239 batting average (20th), .688 OPS (25th), and strike out 9.02 times per game, the fourth worst rate in the league.

Brandon Drury has had a breakout season and leads the team with a .271 batting average (among active players), 19 home runs, 57 RBIs, 20 doubles, and 59 runs scored.

Tommy Pham is behind him in home runs and runs scored, while Kyle Farmer is second with 47 RBIs. Most others are having a down year, though reigning Rookie of the Year Jonathan India is starting to heat up after battling injuries.

Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds Picks and Predictions

  • The moneyline odds certainly favor the Reds and aren’t as weary of their offensive struggles. Perhaps that’s because the right-handed hitters get a southpaw opposing them, and a very good one at that. Still, the Marlins’ moneyline is attractive, knowing the Reds’ struggles this season.
  • With even odds on the over or under and not getting a half number is tricky, really, because there is nothing fishy going on. A solid pitching matchup could easily lend itself to the under.
  • But one has to wonder what Castillo’s emotions will be like. Cincinnati has great fans, and they should show up for what may be their last opportunity to see their ace pitch in a Reds uniform, almost feeling like Johnny Cueto’s exit. It’s set up for a storybook ending – if he even is traded – but the gut is saying Marlins +135 because of Cincinnati’s horrible bullpen.

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